These findings were revealed by Gallup Pakistan & PRIDE, who have joined hands to analyse and disseminate useful economic and social data for relevant and constructive policy discourse in Pakistan. The ongoing series of reports will focus on the Labour Force Survey 2020-21, which is a large scale survey covering close to 100,000 households and is conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The overall unemployment rate in the Punjab province was 6.69%, with the unemployment rate of females being substantially higher than males (8.32% vs. 6.06%) and that of urban residents being relatively higher than the rate for their rural counterparts (7.94% vs. 6.11%). The analysis of division-wise youth unemployment rate in Punjab showed that the overall youth unemployment rate varied from as low as 4.45% for Bahawalpur division, to as high as 17.78% for Rawalpindi division.
The distribution of unemployed youth by level of education indicated that respondents having education level of ‘matric but below intermediate’ made up the highest proportion of unemployed youth at 20.01%, whereas respondents having ‘less than one year of education’ comprised the lowest share of unemployed youth at 0.39%.
23.52% of unemployed female youth in Punjab had a Masters level degree: this is over 7 times higher than the corresponding share of unemployed male youth, as approximately 3% of unemployed males have a Masters degree. Overall, educated females with education up to Masters degrees constituted over 45% of all unemployed female youth in Punjab.
Analysis of the PBS data showed that the Lahore division has the highest population (20.7 million) in Punjab province, whereas Sahiwal division has the lowest population at 7.9 million. Gujranwala division has the highest rural population of 10.9 million, and the Lahore division has the highest urban population of 14.4 million in the province.
Pakistan is home to a large young population, often touted as a 'youth bulge' that has not been cultivated or educated or equipped or given opportunities to play its due role in the development of the country, or to become responsible individuals and respectable representatives of Pakistan in the comity of nations. Analysis reveals that in Punjab alone, there are 31 million youngsters aged (18-29), implying that the youth population of Punjab alone is equivalent to the entire population of Canada.
According to the Labour Force Survey, 'youth unemployment' refers to the number of youth (15-29 years old) population that are economically active but currently without work and are in search of employment. This measure does not include people such as full-time students or those who are not looking for work, i.e., those who are considered 'economically inactive individuals'. This indicator serves as a measure of potential youth labour market entrants that remain under-utilised.
Bilal Gilani, executive director at Gallup Pakistan, said that the study’s most alarming finding is that a higher share of educated youth are unemployed, compared to their lesser educated counterparts. "Education, if seen to be not delivering dividends, would lead to people dropping off from the education stream, and the vast pool of educated urban youth could also cause social issues (if not already causing one)", Gilani postulated.
Dr. Lubna Shahnaz, CEO at PRIDE stated that "labour force statistics usually available at national or provincial level do not adequately capture labour market dynamics across different regions even within a particular province". Dr. Shahnaz added that "more disaggregated statistics at divisional level would enable a more in-depth examination of labour market situation, and facilitate in development of relevant policies and programs at a grass roots level."