The growing geopolitical rivalry between the United States (US) and China-Russia has ushered in a new era of great power competition. The post-Cold War period has resulted in a shift in the global world order, marking an end to US dominance and the rise of revisionist autocracies such as China and Russia. Since the mid-1950s, Beijing and Moscow have increasingly aligned with each other, forming a strategic partnership to expand influence at the expense of Washington's hegemony. The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and China's threatening actions towards Taiwan and expansion in the South China Sea have shattered the US-China-Russia dialogue, thus impacting local political dynamics profoundly. China and Russia have now united to implement a regional strategy, aiming to reshape Eurasia by forming alliances and developing new economic networks independent of the US dollar.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, after two decades of conflict, also created a vacuum. As a geo-strategic hotspot, the Taliban's Islamic Emirate continues to leverage this shift to overcome historical isolation since it wishes to be seen as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's (NATO) involvement in Afghanistan had always sparked tensions with Russia and China due to the latter's concerns about American military encirclement and containment, respectively. However, these two countries are using the American exit to expose the fragility of US hegemony and expose its international incompetence. In filling the vacuum, they have now become promising contenders for dominating the international system.
Since assuming control, the Taliban have lacked widespread international support due to their governance model. They continue to restrict women's rights, prohibit dissent and suppress freedom of expression. The US has remained the biggest obstacle in the Taliban's quest for recognition. Western sanctions have frozen Afghanistan's assets, signalling Washington's disapproval and affecting the Taliban's engagement with the world. As a result, the Afghan economy remains in limbo and the Taliban are confronted with insurmountable barriers hindering the acquisition of political, diplomatic and economic benefits to address the growing humanitarian crisis.
International recognition is crucial for the Taliban's legitimacy and their formal engagement with other governments. The Taliban are currently non-compliant with Western human rights and democratic principles, but they remain adamant on seeking recognition without linking it to improbable changes in their policies or governing system.
In refusing to toe the Western line of sanctioning and isolating the new Taliban regime, Moscow and Beijing have been able to justify that American values do not resonate with non-Western societies and traditions
Afghanistan is integral to the success of the Sino-Russian strategy of fostering a strong Eurasian bloc to counterbalance American influence. However, the spillover of Afghanistan's humanitarian crisis and militant upsurges from the war-torn country can threaten their stratagem. This volatility has prompted the Eurasian giants to intensify their engagement with the Taliban so as to create regional stability and promote development.
Moscow appears to be leading the cause of international engagement with and recognition of the Taliban by providing hard security guarantees to Afghanistan's neighbours through military exercises to foster cooperation. However, it is Chinese investment that acts as a prospective salvation for Afghanistan. They both have developed a sympathetic stance in regard to the Taliban regime, as evidenced in the 2021 Moscow summit and the 2024 UN secretary general's meeting in Doha. The Sino-Russian support shows the international community that the Taliban are not isolated. Consequently, multiple countries have started to establish embassies and diplomatic missions to Taliban-run Afghanistan.
In refusing to toe the Western line of sanctioning and isolating the new Taliban regime, Moscow and Beijing have been able to justify that American values do not resonate with non-Western societies and traditions. This has not only fortified their position as potential new hegemons but is also swaying global consensus in favour of the Taliban.
The efficacy of these advancements remains uncertain. Despite China's economic interests in Afghanistan, it is hesitant to provide military force beyond its borders for a government that lends support to extremism within its territory. Likewise, Russia continues to grapple with the lingering memories of her bitter experience of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. These countries acknowledge that the American military presence has always provided a security blanket for the region. Today, even long-standing allies of the Taliban - Pakistan and Iran - have distanced themselves due to the Taliban government's inaction in tackling terrorism brewing from Afghan soil. Therefore, Chinese and Russian policymakers have yet to actualise trade deals with the Taliban and, barring China, no country has formally recognised the Taliban government.
In the context of China and Russia's pursuit of geopolitical dominance, Afghanistan appears to play a central role. Their ability to construct a "fortress Eurasia" to support violent revisionism and counterbalance US dominance in the region hinges on Taliban cooperation. However, the idea that whatever is detrimental to Washington benefits Moscow and Beijing is not guaranteed. They fear repercussions associated with supporting the Taliban. It is vital for the Taliban to create a semblance of stability by tackling the waves of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. Otherwise, they will not be able to effectively leverage geopolitical tensions to their advantage.