If Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif thought he had weathered the storm kicked up by Imran Khan’s dharna-demand for fresh elections, he has another thought coming. If he thought that his unspoken understanding with the PPP to jointly withstand attempts to dislodge the federal government before it completes its five year term was as good as gold, he must now wonder at the speed with which that alliance is unravelling. Indeed, if he thought he had restored the civil-military imbalance in his favour by abandoning the treason case against General Pervez Musharraf and consenting to General Raheel Sharif’s demand to wage war against terrorism “on all fronts”, he must now be worried by the political consequences for his federal government of the dangerous political direction that “popular” war is taking by targeting and alienating the MQM and PPP, which together represent the electoral mandate of Sindh.
The verdict of the Judicial Commission was a great setback for the PTI. But much the same may be said of the PMLN’s current position following judicial verdicts against it in three of the four hotly contested constituencies in Punjab that form the core of Imran Khan’s demand for fresh elections. Indeed, if the JC took the wind out of Khan’s sails, the fall of three wickets, including those of two key stalwarts of the PMLN, heralds an anxious time for Mr Sharif. Imran Khan has now been joined by Khurshid Shah, the leader of the opposition from the PPP, in demanding the resignations of the four provincial election commissioners for failing to conduct the 2013 elections with due diligence. The PTI has filed a reference against the four in the Supreme Judicial Council, which means that the matter is going to remain in agitation mode and on the front pages for the near future.
The PMLN had originally decided to contest the electoral verdicts in the Supreme Court. That was a defensive tactic. But it has now decided to contest the by-elections and confront the PTI head-on in the court of the people. This is fraught with the great risk that if the PTI wins these seats, it is bound to become more aggressive in reasserting its demand for fresh general elections. Meanwhile, the first phase of local bodies elections for Punjab is scheduled for October 31. That will be a true test of the popularity of both the PTI and PMLN and will have a decisive say in the fate of the three NA constituencies in contention. Either way, the next three months could be make or break for one of them.
The war against terrorism in Sindh is now moving into second phase by targeting corruption. This means, principally, the PPP government in the province. When second-tier PPP “administrators” were arrested by the Sindh Rangers some months ago, Mr Asif Zardari was frothing at the mouth. That led the Sindh government to consider terminating the Rangers’ legal cover for operating in the province and only some last minute “negotiations” between the military, federal government and Sindh government stayed such a decision. Now the NAB-FIA Joint Investigation Team effectively under military command has arrested Dr Asim Hussain, a long time Zardari confidante and “business” associate, and compelled the Sindh Chief Secretary to seek bail before arrest from the Sindh High Court. This has set off alarm bells not just in Karachi but also in Islamabad. If the PPP Sindh government retaliates by withdrawing the writ of the Rangers, the military is bound to demand Governor’s Rule in the province. Since that is easier said than done under the provisions of the 18th constitutional amendment, the military’s ire may express itself in other provocative and destabilising ways. Meanwhile, the PPP is likely to explore ways and means of pressuring Mr Sharif to rein in the military or face the political prospect of losing its support against the PTI.
As if all this isn’t sufficient cause for concern, Mr Sharif must also contend with the domestic and international fallout of the aggressive Indian posture against Pakistan. He was hoping that a dialogue could be initiated via agreed proposals at Ufa. But the military has compelled him not just to oppose the Indian viewpoint on cross-border terrorism but also to demand talks on the Kashmir issue, which has effectively put paid to that hope.
Mr Nawaz Sharif’s relations with General Raheel Sharif have barely withstood the test of conspirators and agitators so far. But they are about to enter turbulent waters as the war against terrorism led by the military ruffles political feathers. Inevitably, this “war” will come closer to home in Punjab and Islamabad if it is to retain its “neutral” stance. That thought alone must give Mr Sharif sleepless nights no less than that of losing electoral ground to the PTI in the forthcoming local and by-elections, or politically alienating the PPP in Sindh.
The verdict of the Judicial Commission was a great setback for the PTI. But much the same may be said of the PMLN’s current position following judicial verdicts against it in three of the four hotly contested constituencies in Punjab that form the core of Imran Khan’s demand for fresh elections. Indeed, if the JC took the wind out of Khan’s sails, the fall of three wickets, including those of two key stalwarts of the PMLN, heralds an anxious time for Mr Sharif. Imran Khan has now been joined by Khurshid Shah, the leader of the opposition from the PPP, in demanding the resignations of the four provincial election commissioners for failing to conduct the 2013 elections with due diligence. The PTI has filed a reference against the four in the Supreme Judicial Council, which means that the matter is going to remain in agitation mode and on the front pages for the near future.
The PMLN had originally decided to contest the electoral verdicts in the Supreme Court. That was a defensive tactic. But it has now decided to contest the by-elections and confront the PTI head-on in the court of the people. This is fraught with the great risk that if the PTI wins these seats, it is bound to become more aggressive in reasserting its demand for fresh general elections. Meanwhile, the first phase of local bodies elections for Punjab is scheduled for October 31. That will be a true test of the popularity of both the PTI and PMLN and will have a decisive say in the fate of the three NA constituencies in contention. Either way, the next three months could be make or break for one of them.
The war against terrorism in Sindh is now moving into second phase by targeting corruption. This means, principally, the PPP government in the province. When second-tier PPP “administrators” were arrested by the Sindh Rangers some months ago, Mr Asif Zardari was frothing at the mouth. That led the Sindh government to consider terminating the Rangers’ legal cover for operating in the province and only some last minute “negotiations” between the military, federal government and Sindh government stayed such a decision. Now the NAB-FIA Joint Investigation Team effectively under military command has arrested Dr Asim Hussain, a long time Zardari confidante and “business” associate, and compelled the Sindh Chief Secretary to seek bail before arrest from the Sindh High Court. This has set off alarm bells not just in Karachi but also in Islamabad. If the PPP Sindh government retaliates by withdrawing the writ of the Rangers, the military is bound to demand Governor’s Rule in the province. Since that is easier said than done under the provisions of the 18th constitutional amendment, the military’s ire may express itself in other provocative and destabilising ways. Meanwhile, the PPP is likely to explore ways and means of pressuring Mr Sharif to rein in the military or face the political prospect of losing its support against the PTI.
As if all this isn’t sufficient cause for concern, Mr Sharif must also contend with the domestic and international fallout of the aggressive Indian posture against Pakistan. He was hoping that a dialogue could be initiated via agreed proposals at Ufa. But the military has compelled him not just to oppose the Indian viewpoint on cross-border terrorism but also to demand talks on the Kashmir issue, which has effectively put paid to that hope.
Mr Nawaz Sharif’s relations with General Raheel Sharif have barely withstood the test of conspirators and agitators so far. But they are about to enter turbulent waters as the war against terrorism led by the military ruffles political feathers. Inevitably, this “war” will come closer to home in Punjab and Islamabad if it is to retain its “neutral” stance. That thought alone must give Mr Sharif sleepless nights no less than that of losing electoral ground to the PTI in the forthcoming local and by-elections, or politically alienating the PPP in Sindh.