Showdown

As Pakistan prepares for a showdown with the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Waziristan after a breakdown of peace talks, there are encouraging signs from Afghanistan.

Pakistan has alleged that militant groups carrying out terrorist attacks in Pakistan find refuge in the neighboring provinces in Afghanistan. Mullah Fazlullah, the emir of Pakistani Taliban, operated from the Kunar province of Afghanistan after he was driven out from his stronghold in the 2009 operation in Swat. Some analysts say the Hamid Karzai government is protecting them and using them against Pakistan.

But Afghan Foreign Ministry spokesman Janan Mosazai denied Kabul would let terrorist groups targeting Pakistan operate in Afghan territory, or that Afghanistan was using them for leverage against Pakistan.

[quote]"An operation in North Waziristan will destroy whatever is left of the Al Qaeda leadership"[/quote]

Kunar province Governor Shujaul Mulk Jalala said Fazlullah, the emir of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), was not in Kunar or anywhere else in Afghanistan. “But the terrain is tough and almost impossible to govern, therefore I cannot guarantee anything,” he added.

A NATO commander in Afghanistan said his troops had received word from Pakistan and were ready to help out from the Afghan side of the border. “The TTP and the Afghan Taliban are two different entities. The TTP is a branch of Al Qaeda. We wish Pakistan would have made the decision to go after them sooner.”

“We welcome the peace talks in Pakistan and wish that the Afghan Taliban also restart a dialogue with their government soon,” said Habibullah Fauzi, an Afghan peace council member.

The Afghan Taliban have stopped all negotiations with the Afghan government and are moving office from Qatar to Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, Saudi Crown Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, deputy prime minister and the minister of Defence, was in Islamabad as part of a south Asian and southeast Asian tour to gather support for the rebels in Syria.

“The Saudis brought an offer of billions of dollars to Pakistan in weapons, training and possibly men,” a diplomat said. “That includes a big package to buy out the TTP and help build infrastructure in FATA.”

One of the biggest concerns for the Pakistani military is India’s growing influence in Afghanistan. One military general, who asked not to named, said the new Indian army chief had been active in destabilizing Pakistan via Afghanistan.

[quote]New Delhi recently rejected a weapons wish-list by Hamid Karzai[/quote]

India’s deputy spy chief recently made a visit to Kabul, and a high-level Afghan Army delegation has also made a recent trip to India. Kabul and New Delhi had signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement during a visit of Afghan President Hamid Karzai to Delhi in October 2011, boosting military to military contacts between Afghanistan and India.  After this particular deal, the Indian army has trained over 600 Afghan commandos and around 200 officers from the Afghan National Army (ANA) at its prestigious military schools in Sonamarg, Kashmir and Belgaum in the northeast.

But there are widening gaps within India over security affairs and the Afghan situation. The New Delhi government recently rejected a weapons wish-list by Hamid Karzai, although the Indian army wants to continue helping the ANA and the Afghan government. It remains to be seen whether India will learn from the fallout of Pakistan’s proxy war in Afghanistan or go on and open a new front.

While Pakistan suddenly finds itself alone amidst an onslaught by the TTP, Al Qaeda and other enemies within its territories, the Afghan intelligence, which is dominated by non-Pashtuns and former-leftists, continues to harbor, facilitate and cultivate known terrorists wanted in Pakistan.

The most recent examples are TTP henchmen Ikramullah Turabi and Latif Mehsud, who were arrested inside Afghanistan by US forces dealing with Afghan intelligence NDS. A top NATO source said the two militant commanders “were in advance negotiations to set up bases inside Afghanistan”.

Despite the Afghan assurance that it would not let its territory be used against Pakistan, Islamabad plans to fence the borders after a likely North Waziristan operation, and make buffers to keep the TTP inside Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda, which has ventured into “strategic terrorism” in keeping Pakistan Army divided and as far away from FATA as possible, is worried by the prospects of an operation.

According to security expert Carl Adams, “An operation in North Waziristan will destroy whatever is left of their so-called leadership. However, we think that they have slowly moved their bases already.”

The Pakistani army and air force have already launched a targeted operation in Waziristan after talks with the TTP broke down following the brutal beheading of 23 FC soldiers claimed by Taliban militants in Mohmand, and the killing of 13 policemen in Karachi.

“I don’t think there’s much hope now,” said veteran journalist Rahimullah Yousafzai.

The targeting strikes were sanctioned by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, according to a source, in a meeting with army chief Gen Raheel Sharif.

“The prime minister, the military and the nation are on the same page,” Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah said.

But key opposition leader Imran Khan says negotiations should be given another chance. “We should target only those factions who are involved in terrorism,” he said. “But we should negotiate with those who are willing to talk.”