As expected, one of the first actions of the U.S. government under Trump's administration was to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. With this, the US joined Iran, Yemen, and Libya as the countries that have not ratified the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). His clear and immediate withdrawal started with the comment, "I'm immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off," jeopardizing the decades-long efforts of climate crisis activists, who are distressed that “climate change does not care whatever he thinks.”
Considering the history, this action was expected due to the previous course of the Trump administration in 2017. Some of the key features of Trump's climate change denial policy from 2017 to 2021 include the Paris Agreement withdrawal, which was later rejoined by President Joe Biden; the repeal of the Clean Power Plan; flexibility in fuel efficiency standards; weakened methane regulations; and increased fossil fuel drilling.
The US is the world’s biggest historical emitter of Green House Gasses, emitting 431.85 million tonnes of Cumulative CO2 in 2023, accounting for a 23.83% share, compared to 16.47%, 15.04%, 4.4%, and 3.47% by the European Union (EU), China, the UK, and India, respectively. This decision is creating a wave of worry among climate crisis activists, as the world is fast-paced toward a 3°C rise despite efforts by global climate change fighters to keep it under 1.5°C. There are several consequences of this deliberate action, ranging from trade tensions to increased vulnerability.
First, the US always holds a leading position in global dynamics and power decision-making, particularly in climate change, which is critical to the future of the planet. This decision created a power vacuum, allowing countries like China and the EU to take the lead in climate leadership. As the US joins the short list of countries, it is demoted to the sidelines of the world’s foremost climate treaty, becoming a mere observer in global deliberations.
This decision has placed the Trump administration and a significant group of U.S cities, states, and businesses, representing two-thirds of the population and three-fourths of the economy, who have already pledged to meet the 2035 climate target set by the Biden administration, at a crossroads
Second, this decision is also threatening the reliability of the US and its markets, as the EU is emerging as the climate crisis management leader, significantly regularising global trade through measures like the EU Green Deal. Moreover, the EU Green Deal, with its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CS3D), will impose tariffs on imports from countries with less stringent climate policies. As a result, U.S. exporters may face higher costs when trading with the EU, reducing competitiveness unless industries adopt greener practices. This could lead to economic polarisation as other countries would have to align their standards with EU standards so that they will maintain market access, resulting in trade tensions. The retaliatory approach taken by Trump towards such measures could leave the world at a crossroads in the coming years.
The third important consideration is the massive toll of neglect, which could result in more events like the 2022 floods in Pakistan, the Miltan and Helena hurricanes, and L.A.-like wildfires. According to the State of the Global Climate 2023 report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), to keep the temperature, aligned with the 1.5°C pathway, the scale of climate finance investments needs to grow more than six-fold annually, to approximately USD 9 trillion by 2030 and an additional USD 10 trillion through to 2050. Also, the cost of inaction is even higher, estimated at USD 1,266 trillion.
Fourth, this decision has placed the Trump administration and a significant group of U.S cities, states, and businesses, representing two-thirds of the population and three-fourths of the economy, who have already pledged to meet the 2035 climate target set by the Biden administration, at a crossroads. Additionally, at the end of Biden’s tenure, the Inflation Reduction Act was introduced, spending 74 billion dollars on climate-conscious and sustainable projects, which will leave Trump's administration struggling to undo some of the progress that had been made.
It would be extremely detrimental for the world's largest historical emitter to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and cease to take action to combat climate change, especially with regard to the countries and people that suffer from the greatest degree of vulnerability. But also, for the United States of America itself.