India is situated on the eastern border of Pakistan, with the fifth largest economy, with a GDP of US $2.651 trillion and a growth rate of 7%, and the second largest military, with a budget of $84.1 billion. Pakistan continues to deal with a long-standing dispute with India over Kashmir, along with a history of four wars, and India’s role in the debacle of the Eastern Wing of Pakistan in 1971. Behind the Himalayas, in our north is China, with the largest army in the world with a military budget of $292 billion, and the second largest economy with a GDP of US $12.238 trillion and a growth rate nearing 8%. To our west is oil-rich Iran, which has closer ties with India and Russia, and remains horns-locked with Israel and the US. Iran’s economy has been squeezed by the decade’s old sanctions, imposed by the US, for its nuclear ambitions. In spite of this, Iran still ranks 26th in the world’s economies, with a GDP of $454 billion and a growth rate of 4.7%, and its military ranks 7th with a budget over $25 billion. Afghanistan’s economy has suffered significantly due to four decades of war, so it has a measly GDP of $14.79 billion, a growth rate of 1.3%, and its defense lies in the hands of the warlords after the US withdrawal in 2021. Pakistan is positioned awkwardly in the middle of this neighborhood, with its army ranking 6th in the world, with a military budget $12 billion, and its economy under perpetual stress for over a decade, clocking in a GDP of $305 billion and a laughably miserable growth rate of 0.29%.
Iran has developed ties with India and both these countries have been closer to Russia. On the other hand, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have maintained close military and diplomatic relations with each other and the US. Iran has had a difficult history with Saudi Arabia, which however, has eased in the recent past. China has brokered a deal between these two countries. China and India have exchanged military blows over their claims on Ladakh, in the Himalayan region in 2020-21. In the west, there has been a problematic history between Pakistan and Afghanistan, owing to a border dispute - the Durand Line.
Following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the West imposed sanctions on the Russia’s oil trade. Ironically, despite India’s growing romance with the US, it is processing Russian crude at its Jamnagar complex in Gujrat, and selling it to the world. It has boosted the Indian economy to the 5th position in the world. It doesn’t seem to bother the US, as they are fostering economic ties with India, as one can see from the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent state visit to Washington.
When the Cold War ended, a new world order was born. But this new world came with an undertaking – the West shall not muddle with the states on the western borders of the former USSR – that included Ukraine. The current crisis in Europe erupted, when the US tried to install their military bases in Ukraine. It, ostensibly, violated the agreement between the former Soviet Union and the West. That’s the Russian position on it – they were compelled to initiate a military action in Ukraine, which had refused to hold back from leaning closer to the US. After the Russian forces invaded Ukraine February 2022, the West abstained from a direct involvement in the conflict, regardless of the harsh criticism from their own media, for not doing enough. It just contented itself by supplying military hardware and other support to the Ukrainian forces to fight against Russia.
A group of paramilitary fighters, known as the Wagner Group, were fighting in Ukraine alongside the Russian troops. Wagner Group turned against the Russian forces on the pretext that they had bombed their positions in Ukraine from behind. Their leader, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, charged at the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, and took control of it. It was meant to settled the score with the Russian generals, who, they believed, had stabbed them in the back. It remains to be seen, whether Russia holds the West - the US – responsible for this mutiny. Both sides seem to be treading with caution – at least, so far.
A question that begs clarity – what is the problem between Russia and the West?
President Putin’s 2013 article in the New York Times – A Plea For Caution From Russia –, and Sergei Karaganov’s recent piece – A Difficult but Necessary Decision – convey a great sense of spite for the West, their ideals, their way of life, philosophies, social values, the economic system. Both highlighted some marked differences between Russia and the West –culture, civilization, economic system, and the way of life. They collectively voice a disenchantment, which resonate the experiences of the post-colonial states – erosion of indigenous cultures by imposing Western thoughts and idea during the colonial and then the neo-colonial days of post-Cold War era. In other words, the Russians are wooing the erstwhile colonized nations to stand against the West. This rhetoric has a potential to persuade many nations, who believe the West has subjugated them to economic oppression. Pakistan is one of the countries, with not so invisible anti-Americanism in the hearts and minds of the people – one can list the reasons, why?
Given the situation, and with help of the map of Pakistan’s neighborhood drawn above – Pakistan faces a three-fold task. It needs to reimagine its ideological self-image and its vision of the world – it will help Pakistan to define its relationships with its neighbors and with the rest of the world. It must rethink its political system that has brought nothing but instability – this is linked to the economic problems as well. And, finally, Pakistan needs to start making up its mind, as to how to deal with the situation in Eastern Europe, if it builds in the way as Sergei Karaganov has envisaged it.