Fast forward three years and Pakistan has had back-to-back Saudi-Bahraini visitors this spring. However, the national security chairmen have been replaced by the royalty, as Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifah’s trip to Pakistan last week followed Saudi Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud’s February visit. And from the look of things both the eminence of the guest-list, and the tasks assigned to Pakistan, have soared up in these three years.
Flashback
Three years ago, Fauji Foundation was asked to recruit manpower for the National Guard in Bahrain, where the reverberations of the Arab Spring were echoing. According to the 2010 census, 70.2 percent of the population there is Muslim with around 70 percent of that number being Shia. And for Bahrain, the Arab Spring was as much about attaining political freedom as about getting equal rights for the Shia population.
Fauji Foundation’s advertisements were regularly published in Pakistani newspapers, and around 2,500 men are believed to have been sent to Manama, increasing the share of Pakistanis in Bahraini security forces to around 30 percent – this in a country where the local Shia find it virtually impossible to get a position in the National Guard.
Bahrain’s augmentation of “Sunni” troops and the skewed immigration policy made it evident that the hierarchy was looking for a Sunni influx to alter the demographics of the country, which would in turn help suppress the Shia unrest. And it isn’t that daunting a task for a country with only 800,000 inhabitants.
The guests arrive
The Bahraini King’s visit to Pakistan earlier this month was touted by the foreign office as a manoeuvre that would enhance investment and trade between the countries. Six agreements for cooperation in various sectors were also signed. However, the word is that Islamabad has secretly been “gifted” around $750 million for a “special task” in Manama, which follows the $1.5 billion dollar Saudi “gift”, believed to be for a similar task in Syria.
Shahab Jafry, the Middle East Correspondent for Pakistan Today, believes that the sudden Saudi and Bahraini interest in Pakistan has a sectarian undertone.
“Saudi armoured columns jammed the causeway as Riyadh lent 1,500 soldiers, and Pakistan offered, it has been reported, retired Sunni security officials to help bring down the Shia rebellion,” Jafry said. “The GCC monarchies are troubled. The Syrian government has consolidated its gains, there is a gentle thaw between Iran and America, and Washington has come down very hard on the GCC, specifically Saudi Arabia, regarding its support for Al Qaeda proxies in Syria and Iraq etc. If the past is any precedent, Gulf Arabs are cajoling Pakistan’s conservative ruling class to protect its own interests,” he added.
The move may have consequences. “At risk, for Pakistan, is not only the favour of the Americans, but also relations with Iran, because we would take sides in an all-out Shia-Sunni sectarian war as it spreads through the Muslim world.”
By hopping aboard the Saudi-Bahrain nexus in the Middle East, Pakistan would also alienate its own Shia community, which is over 20 percent of the total population.
Change at the helm
The last time Bahrain came looking for military assistance it was the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led government that was stuttering towards completing its five-year tenure – a first for Pakistan. The then Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani reassured Prince Bandar of support. Even though the prospect of a massive inflow of Saudi petrodollars was too good to refuse for a struggling economy, the move negated PPP’s much peddled policy of “non-interference” in the Middle East.
This time around, with Nawaz Sharif already indebted to the Saudis for their support during his exile in the Musharraf era, the Saudis and Bahrainis seem to have one of their own at the helm in Pakistan. Qamar Zaman Kaira, who was the minister of information and mass-media broadcasting under Prime Minister Gilani, believes it would be a bad idea if the government interfered in the internal matters of Middle Eastern states.
“I think picking either side of the sectarian divide is a bad idea and for us all Muslim countries should be equal. Becoming a party to conflict in any sovereign country isn’t something the government should be opting for; the fact that it’s a sectarian conflict makes non-interference even more pertinent.”
Kaira said his party’s government did sign defence treaties with countries in the Gulf and the Middle East, but did not meddle in their internal affairs. “The prime minister has said that we won’t be sending any troops under the command of the Bahrani king, so we should take his statement at its face value,” he added.
Troops for sale
For the Pakistani military, divulging its expertise in the Middle East isn’t exactly a new experience. When the Arab world was busy splurging oil money on the latest war equipment in the 70s and 80s, they looked to Pakistan to provide the technical expertise. These “military experts” were sent to various countries including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Syria, UAE, Jordan and Iraq, which included former president and army chief Ziaul Haq who orchestrated the notorious Black September operation against the Palestinians.
Military scientist, political commentator and author of Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy, Dr Ayesha Siddiqa doesn’t believe that the military would have any issue with a new expedition in Bahrain. “Why would they have a problem? Their income is linked to external funding. Of course they would embrace the opportunity.”
“The only time the army has ever showed any reluctance for such an operation was back in 1991 when Mirza Aslam Beg voiced his support for Iraq during the Gulf War. And even back then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ensured that Pakistan sent 11,000 troops as a part of the US-led coalition.”
[quote]Islamabad has settled for a combined sum of $2.25 billion[/quote]
Battleground Bahrain
On Sunday, Bahraini forces attacked a Shia mosque in a village near Manama, the second mosque attacked in March. Another Shia mosque was attacked in Sa’ar last month, adding to the dozens that have come under aggression since the uprising began in 2011.
The Pakistani government has already left its own Shia population exposed to the organizations like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and the banned Sipah-e-Sahaba. Supporting anti-Shia aggression in the Middle East would further fuel the sectarian fire back home. Fighting the Saudi war in Damascus and Bahraini war in Manama was always going to have a massive price tag. Seemingly, Islamabad has settled for a combined sum of $2.25 billion.