Was the incident that claimed the life of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian and other officials an accident or an assassination? What is the next step in this process? In a series of unfortunate events, the helicopter of the President of Iran crashed on the same day as the King of Saudi Arabia was hospitalised with a high fever.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was not heard from for an extended period. The reason for this was purported to be the mountainous and foggy nature of the region. Raisi was traveling in an old Soviet-made helicopter, which was not designed for use in foggy or rainy weather. The helicopter in question lacked the requisite digital features.
In general, the Iranian authorities have stated that the helicopter made a forced landing. There should have been an emergency signal from the helicopter indicating that it had made a forced landing. However, there was no signal. As a result, the helicopter could not be located for a considerable period.
Iran was in recent months showcasing its technological capabilities and model systems, ostensibly to demonstrate its growing influence and technological prowess. But the helicopter crash has shown that Iran has not made sufficient progress in terms of technical surveillance and UAV technology. The helicopter of the president of the country crashed, and the location of the aircraft could not be determined for several hours. The government of the country requested assistance from the government of Turkey.
In the event, it was the UAV sent by Turkey to help Iran that found the downed helicopter in which the Iranian President was located. It did what more than a hundred Iranian drones could not do. Had it not been for the Turkish drone, Iran would have searched for days for the helicopter containing the bodies of the Iranian President and other officials.
Before his fatal flight, President Ebrahim Raisi met with the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev on the occasion of the opening of a dam at the common border point. During his meeting with Aliyev, in fact, Raisi expressed concern that there are forces that may not be supportive of their efforts to come together and cooperate.
Ebrahim Raisi was elected President of Iran in 2021, yet he simultaneously represented the most powerful individual capable of replacing Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. In Iran, being a religious leader is very important, and therefore Raisi was seen as the person who would succeed Ali Khamenei.
The existence of an organisation known as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is a key factor in this context. In Iran, this structure is responsible for implementing security measures and comprehensively protecting the president. The Iranian president was permitted to travel in inclement weather, on an antiquated helicopter with inadequate equipment. This is the first of the questions that require our attention. One might inquire as to the suitability of the helicopter for the prevailing weather conditions. One might inquire as to whether there was a technical team present to oversee the operation.
There is currently a power vacuum in Iran, which may provide an opportunity for those with opposing views to destabilise the country through a power struggle. They may also seek to dismember Iran. It would be remiss of me not to mention that similar situations had arisen in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Syria. In such an event, the Middle East would be placed in a highly complex situation.
This crypto structure wants a different system in Iran. As a result, there may be a power struggle among the various hidden mechanisms inside the Iranian system. Sabotage was carried out at very critical points in Iran, assassinations were organised against very critical commanders: so there is already a crypto structure in place there, and there are collaborators inside.
Also, there is a serious crypto-structuring within the Iranian administration. On occasion, senior members of the Revolutionary Guards have been dismissed from their positions within the Iranian government. In addition, other senior state officials were also dismissed – seemingly on arbitrary grounds. It is not entirely clear who is who.
There is a power that is attempting to expand the conflict in the Middle East through Iran, and there is a power that is attempting to redesign the Middle East.
The crash of the Iranian president's helicopter is of significant consequence and will have far-reaching repercussions in Iran and the Middle East in the coming days. It is also likely that this situation will have an impact on Turkey.
One cannot help but be reminded of the incident that took place on the 8th of July 2022, when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated.
It must be borne in mind that just two weeks ago, there was an assassination attempt against Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. He was hospitalised with serious injuries and is now in a moderately better condition.