Once again, heavy rains are causing enormous destruction all over Pakistan. According to the media reports, almost 250 percent more than the average rains are recorded, which caused floods and destroyed roads, buildings, and dwellings. Until August 26, over 1000 precious lives perished, while over a million people were homeless all over Pakistan. And, in the middle of this disaster, the debate about the mega dams has started.
Lack Of Water Storage Capacity
According to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan ranks third in the world among countries facing acute water shortages. Experts believe Pakistan is on its way to becoming the most water-stressed country in South Asia by year 2040. The storage capacity of two mega dams of Pakistan at Tarbela and Mangla is falling because of silting and sedimentation. These mega dams can store only 30 days of average water demand compared to 120-220 days for India and 900 days for the US.
The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR), a body that played an important role in promoting research in various disciplines of the water sector, reported some years ago that Pakistan touched the water stress line in 1990, while it crossed the water security line in 2000. The PCRWR also warned that Pakistan could run dry by 2025 because the water shortage may reach alarmingly low levels. According to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), Pakistan receives around 145 million acre-feet (MAF) of water every year but can only save 13.7 MAF. Pakistan needs 40 MAF of water but 29 MAF of floodwater is wasted because of the lack of water storage capacity.
India argue that since Pakistan can’t manage its water properly, it should be allowed to use the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — which are, according to the 1960 Indus Water Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan, are reserved for Pakistan. The eastern rivers -- Sutlej, Ravi and Beas – are reserved for India.
According to Deutsche Welle (DW) News Agency, Germany’s public international broadcaster, reports, “Pakistan has the world's fourth-highest rate of water use. Its water intensity rate —the amount of water, in cubic meters, used per unit of GDP — is the world's highest. This suggests that no country's economy is more water-intensive than Pakistan's.”
This is because, in Pakistan, agriculture is the backbone of its economy. The agriculture sector provides over 45 percent of the total employment and approximately 70 percent of the exports are agriculture-related. Agriculture cannot flourish and sustain with the scarcity of water. This indeed highlights the need for water reservoirs.
The storage capacity of two mega dams of Pakistan at Tarbela and Mangla is falling because of silting and sedimentation. These mega dams can store only 30 days of average water demand compared to 120-220 days for India and 900 days for the US.
Besides the lack of water reservoirs, experts believe that the water scarcity problem got exacerbated because of population growth and urbanisation.
The parliamentary secretary of the National Health Service claimed in July 2021 that the annual per capita water availability was at the level of 1,038 cubic meters, which is close to the scarcity threshold level of 1,000 cubic meters. It was 1,500 cubic meters in 2009, 5,260 cubic meters in 1951, and 5,600 cubic meters in 1947.
The Case Of Diamer-Bhasha Dam
Poor water management and climate change further exacerbate the issue of water scarcity in Pakistan. The Mangla Dam was built with a reservoir capacity of 5.88 MAF, however, by 2005, the capacity was dropped to 4.67 MAF because of sedimentation. Experts believe that the capacity would further deteriorate in the years to come. The Mangla Dam Raising Project was started in 2004 and effectively raised the dam height by 30 feet, which increased the dam’s storage capacity by an additional 2.88 MAF. In the 1960s, another big dam was built at the site of Tarbela in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (former NWFP). The dam was built with an initial reservoir capacity of 9.7 MAF, which is reduced by almost one-third of the capacity due to silting and sedimentation. The estimated lifespan of the dam is until 2060.
To resolve the water crisis, many experts in Pakistan believe that besides upgrading of current dams, Pakistan requires building mega dams. First on the list is the Diamer-Basha dam in Gilgit-Baltistan. The initial design comprises 892 feet high spillway with 14 gates with a storage capacity of 6.4 MAF. As per the plan, this multipurpose dam would deliver many benefits like added water storage capacity to ensure water from River Indus is more reliably available throughout the year, flood control to prevent devastation, the kind witnessed in 2010 and presently in 2022, and to generate low-cost hydroelectric power to help address the country’s power problem.
However, the total cost of the Diamer-Bhasha dam is estimated to be $14 billion, and the fear is that it would at least be doubled by the time dam is complete, because according to the World Commission on Dams (WCD), which provides the most accurate and comprehensive guidelines for dam building, on average, all dams suffer at least double the cost than the initial estimate. In Pakistan, the Neelam-Jhelum project proved five times more costly than its initial estimate. So, as per the WCD estimate, the Diamer-Basha dam would cost at least $28 billion, which is almost 10 percent of Pakistan’s total GDP.
The parliamentary secretary of the National Health Service claimed in July 2021 that the annual per capita water availability was at the level of 1,038 cubic meters, which is close to the scarcity threshold level of 1,000 cubic meters. It was 1,500 cubic meters in 2009, 5,260 cubic meters in 1951, and 5,600 cubic meters in 1947.
Another problem that geologists warn against is that the dam site lies between the Indian and Eurasian plates. Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) acknowledged in their feasibility study that the site is traversed by multiple faultlines. Bashir A. Malik, the former chief technical advisor at the United Nations and World Bank, who worked as director of the Tarbela Dam Indus Basin Project, stated that the risk of earthquake-induced failure at the Diamer-Basha dam site is too significant to carry on with the construction.
Also, the WAPDA’s data reveals that there is not enough water in the system to sustain additional large dams. For example, 90 percent of the time, the flow of Indus below Kotri amounts to less than 5 MAF. It is only the sporadic flood years that give them a satisfactory number of 35 MAF. The Sindh government claims that to prevent the “seawater intrusion”, 10 MAF of water is required under Kotri Barrage, However, in 2004, the federal government hired experts from all over the world who undertook a study and concluded that 3.6 MAF is required under Kotri Barrage to contain the seawater intrusion.
So, the experts ask, is it workable to spend that much energy and funds just on one project?
With an estimated cost of $14 billion, Pakistan requires solid commitment, from international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, instead of relying on individual donations, which reportedly reached some $50 million on July 31, 2022.
Solving The Water Storage Problem
Because of the controversies about the location of the Diamer-Basha dam, the international financial institutes are not showing too much interest in the project. However, the World Bank supported smaller projects like the extension of a hydropower project at the Tarbela dam, agriculture productivity improvement projects, and the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project are underway. So, Pakistan should plan smaller dams and get help from the financial institutions.
Pakistani private media can play a significant role in educating the masses and creating awareness about the conservation of water resources. Instead of infantile propaganda about the efforts to collect donations, the media should have discussions and debates about the pros and cons of mega dam vs smaller dams. People must be educated and made aware of the fact that the first step to conserving water starts with individuals. The government must be pressurised to make concrete steps toward planning dams, upgrading irrigation systems, improving canal systems, and other scientific ways of extracting water from the air. The government must take the problem head-on instead of worrying about the optics and politicising the whole issue. It must educate people about the available options.