Since July 21, when US President Joe Biden - after seeing the writing on the wall and being persuaded by the sane minds in Washington DC - decided to withdraw from his reelection campaign and nominated his Vice President Kamala Harris as the presidential candidate for the Democratic Party, the race quickly turned in favour of a new, young woman of colour representing a new America. Kamala Harris consolidated her position in the party, and quickly secured public endorsements from prominent figures like former President Barack and former First Lady Michelle Obama, Democratic stalwarts Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries, demonstrating widespread party unity. Harris raised substantial funds, securing a record $310 million in the last ten days of July, and improved polling numbers that helped her narrow the gap with Donald Trump.
The Democratic National Convention subsequently confirmed her nomination through a virtual roll call, with 99% of delegates voting in her favour, ensuring a smooth transition to her candidacy. She quickly went on to attack the Republican party and its contemporary face, former President Donald Trump, for his allegedly racist, anti-democratic, and dictatorial approaches to resolving outstanding issues of the United States. In contrast, her campaign emphasised a moderate, optimistic, and inclusive vision based on protecting democracy, expanding abortion rights, and addressing economic inequality. Harris' campaign emphasised bipartisan outreach, notably partnering with former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney - the daughter of former US Vice President Dick Cheney who worked alongside US President George W Bush to invade Afghanistan and Iraq - in battleground states to appeal to disillusioned GOP voters and moderates.
Kamala’s self-proclaimed position of being an underdog in the race was taken very well by a vast majority of independent voters who started searching for and investigating her positions on various issues across the spectrum. As time passed, her lead has shrunk from a high of 52%
For some time, it looked like Kamala Harris could become the first female President of the United States. Her campaign promised to build a coalition of suburban women, younger voters, and centrist Republicans, pitching herself as the candidate who can restore stability and governance - not to mention she was the only non-geriatric candidate. In an increasingly polarising America, where political confrontation is simmering on the verge of turning violent, she tried to promise optimism, preserving the rule of law and constitutional civil rights. Polls after polls showed her bridging the gap between herself and former President Trump, and eventually surpassing him. In September, not one poll showed her losing to Donald Trump, though the forecasted margin of victory was never too big to be confident. In fact, in some of the most promising simulations, she was shown only five percentage points ahead of Donald Trump. With a margin of error being 3.1% and no one survey organisation willing to repeat the humiliating mistake of the forecasts in 2016, even the most liberal and left-leaning newspapers such as the New York Times labeled the race as too close to call.
However, since October 10, it seems that the tide has once again shifted in favour of Donald Trump. His campaign has gone on the offensive in the battleground states, reclaiming ground lost to the euphoric celebrations of diversity and reproductive rights being on the ticket by the Democratic Party. On October 9, The Hill reported that Democratic Party strategists were questioning how the campaign was being organised, referring to the increasing number of African American and Hispanic voters disillusioned by Harris' vision, particularly in the battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. Kamala’s self-proclaimed position of being an underdog in the race was taken very well by a vast majority of independent voters who started searching for and investigating her positions on various issues across the spectrum. As time passed, her lead has shrunk from a high of 52%.
On October 21, Five Thirty-Eight, one of the most credible websites reporting polls and surveys being conducted by the leading organisations, concluded that “Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on November 5 Now — just 18 days away from Election Day — our forecast gives Trump the bare advantage in the race with a 52-in-100 chance to win.” The report does mention that the race is still too close to call, reminding the readers that Kamala Harris had a much higher lead of 58-in-100 simulations. However, the psychology of electioneering shows that the nearest streak of flipping the trend has a slightly higher chance of winning the race in the end.
If Trump wins re-election, he would only be the second President of the United States after President Grover Cleveland, to leave the White House and return for a second term four years later
Recall the 2016 election campaign for instance. In July 2016, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (the FBI) announced that Hillary Clinton was “careless” about handling her emails, both personal and professional as the Secretary of State during the Obama administration. On October 28, 2016, just days before the election, the FBI announced that it had found new emails that “appeared to be pertinent” to its investigations regarding the email scandal. These new emails, including some from top Clinton aide Huma Abedin, were found on a laptop belonging to her estranged husband, former congressman Anthony Weiner. It gave Donald Trump a golden opportunity to seize the moment and label Hillary Clinton a dangerous, irresponsible and corrupt public official. Three days later, the FBI released its assessment and maintained its previous position of not initiating any proceedings of criminal conduct against Hillary Clinton. Trump attacked the FBI and labeled the final assessment as the “deep state” protecting his opponent. The polls show that the public opinion shifted in his favour during those 72 hours and was later on considered the main reason for Hillary’s defeat in three battleground states Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Ironically, Trump won these states in 2016 by a margin of less than 75,000 put together. He lost the majority vote; Hillary Clinton received 3 million more votes but still could not win the Electoral College.
Is 2024 going to be a repeat of 2016? At this moment, the race is too close to call. However, the trend is changing in favour of Donald Trump who is re-energising his campaign to win the final streak of approval from the public. If he wins re-election, he would only be the second President of the United States after President Grover Cleveland, to leave the White House and return for a second term four years later.
However, regardless of whether Trump wins or loses, or if Kamala Harris becomes the first-ever woman to become the President of the United States, the next four years are going to be the most tumultuous years of modern American history. Emboldened by the recent decision of the Supreme Court of the United States in Trump vs the United States, in which the court declared that the President enjoys widespread immunity in his conduct of presidential duties. Donald Trump is thus poised to unleash executive power to accomplish his transformative agenda of redefining the genetics of American society. However, if he loses, it is going to be an unacceptable defeat to the White conservatives who believe that America is undergoing an unprecedented demographic transformation exacerbated by the unprecedented arrival of waves upon waves of immigrants from South America and Asia. The fear is if this trend cannot be reversed through a political process for which, they believe, Trump is the most suitable candidate, there is going to be a violent reaction. A challenge of widespread public disorder cannot be ruled out.