During the election campaign Modi did not restrain from using shrill rhetoric vis-a-vis Pakistan, and no one would have anticipated such a gesture from the new Indian PM right away. Sharif on his part also exhibited tenacity even though certain sections within Pakistan were averse to his visit. It has in fact been argued by certain analysts in India, that while Modi’s move may enhance his image domestically and internationally, he did put Sharif in a slightly tight spot especially vis-à-vis the Jihadis and the Pakistan Army.
Apart from Sharif, the heads of state of Afghanistan (Hamid Karzai), Sri Lanka (Mahendra Rajapaksa), Bhutan (Tshering Tobgay), Nepal (Sushil Koirala) and Maldives (Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom) were quick to accept Modi’s invite, Bangladesh was represented by its speaker Shirin Chaudhry, while Sharif gave his assent on May 24 . The only non-SAARC leader invited was Mauritian Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam.
[quote]Spontaneity is essential for diplomacy in South Asia[/quote]
In a goodwill gesture, the Pakistani government also released 151 Indian fishermen in Pakistani jails, before Sharif touched Indian soil. All the above leaders were invited for a dinner after Modi’s swearing in. They also had one-on-one meetings with Modi.
While it would be fair not to read too much into the invite sent out by Narendra Modi, risk averse diplomats in the Indian establishment need to realize that an element of spontaneity is essential for diplomacy in South Asia, and out of the box thinking by India does not necessarily imply that India is in any way compromising its national interest.
Yet, Modi supporters or those expecting a sudden turnaround in ties with the outside world especially Pakistan, with a new government at the helm, need to be a bit realistic. Many in New Delhi have already begun to believe that due to his right wing background and the strong mandate he received in the recent polls, Modi may be in a better position to make concessions to Pakistan, and to improve ties between New Delhi and Islamabad.
It would be important to state here that while Modi may have some more elbow room in dealing with Pakistan than his predecessor Dr Singh given the numbers his party has in parliament, and the firm grip over his party added to his hardline image.
While Modi and Sharif seem to have struck a reasonable rapport during their recent conversations, Modi cannot afford to make any major concessions until there is some progress on trials of 26/11 suspects, as well as action against Hafiz Saeed apart from the recent terror attack on the Indian consulate in Herat on May 24th. This is quite evident from the bilateral meeting between Sharif and Modi where these issues dominated the conversation. The Congress party, which got trounced in the recent elections, is likely to keep the pressure on the BJP, given that Modi accused the erstwhile Congress led United Progressive Alliance of following an excessively weak Pakistan policy. Modi’s allies like the Shiv Sena, which have been averse to even cricketing ties with Pakistan, will also need to be kept at bay. Apart from this, Modi’s first priority is getting India’s economy back on track. Until that happens, he is not in a position to make significant breakthroughs on big ticket items.
Similarly, Sharif too may have made it abundantly clear that he is all for peace between both countries, yet there are lobbies inimical to peace. The delay in accepting Modi’s invite has already been linked to the fact that many in Pakistan were against Sharif’s attendance. The attack on India’s consulate in Herat has been linked to Modi’s invite to Sharif, and a message to the Sharif government.
If there are areas where Modi may find it easier to engage with Pakistan, it is certainly the sphere of trade and commerce, given that his main plank during the election was uplift of the Indian economy and also that the cornerstone of his foreign policy is trade and commerce. Sharif too has a business mind and has been advocating closer economic ties between both countries. This may just be the golden opportunity. This was quite evident from Sharif’s India visit where economic ties were discussed including energy trade.
In conclusion, it is important to be realistic in our expectations, and while both countries may be able to make progress in trade and commerce and people to people contact, it is important to have realistic expectations.
Tridivesh Singh Maini is a New Delhi based policy analyst