The Political patterns of any state are very much the reflection of the history, collective or national memory, and socio-cultural habits of its people. Thus, the subsequently established Political order in these respective states and the institutions that emerge out of these recurring patterns are on the same footing, exclusively unique to those nations only. The liberal dream of 'World transformation' into the image of the Western-styled democracy has turned into a nightmare for the West itself; where not only the established democracies are experimenting with the alternative models but even the heartlands of democracy are now, also occupied by the populist leaders.
The strongman style of politics has taken the international community of states by storm; the return of authoritarian and autocratic style of Government that was popular in the last century has returned, defying international rules, norms, and standards. Populism seems to be the new Democracy today; strongmen seem to have taken the globe by storm, coming in different spectra of intensities and degrees; from being democratically elected like Trump in the US, Modi in India, Johnson in the UK, to Muhammad Bin Salman in Monarchies like Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to blunt autocrats like Xi Jinping and Putin then all the way to a unique populist-cum- Sultan like the Erdogan of Turkey.
What could have brought all these populist leaders from their respective yet very distinct socio-cultural and political backgrounds to follow this global trend? The answer is identity politics, hyper globalisation and their discontent with the Neo-liberalism.
The Walls of Identities: Resurrecting new walls around the globe
The Wall around the Mexican and US border which Trump calls 'The Big Beautiful Wall' was central to Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ campaign in 2016. Similar walls-rhetoric were heard and seen all around the globe, the Hungarian wall between Hungary and Serbia that would 'leave Hungary for the Hungarians' a slogan of another populist Viktor Orban in the heart of Europe, another wall between Israel and Palestine that would keep out the Arabs as Netanyahu said, 'the only good Arab is a dead one'. Going back in history, the triumph of Liberal democracy was celebrated in 1989 with the fall of the wall of Berlin, and Liberal Democracy aimed at demolishing all such walls that curtailed the people's freedom, equality, and right to life. With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Iron Curtain fell too, in 1991. The world was no longer divided by the walls but rather it presented a picture of a globalised world, glued and bound together defending the liberal ideals of freedom, liberty, equality, and free trade.
Among the frontline warriors of the Liberal values, was a 'indispensable nation' that took a mission based on its exceptionalism and Inevitable destiny to lead the world. The US started transforming the post-colonial states with a rich history, and distinct cultural and social patterns that were profoundly different from those of the Western patterns, essentially in their image and ideals. The result was the rise of Autocracies, military regimes consolidating, the emergence of rogue states, the formation of the axis of evils, erupting Proxies, surging terrorism, and much more. In the same much more, came the gift of people who migrated from the conflict-marred zone that the US or the West was trying to morph into its image. Thus approximately 258 Million people migrated from these conflict-ridden areas to Europe and the West; International migration was a thing now and the building of the walls had started. The populist leaders didn’t miss a chance of political scoring. R Camus’ Le Grande Replacement conspiracy seems to be working everywhere and gained much popularity, especially in the West. It not only became popular with the public but also yielded good electoral results each time around creating a global trend for it.
“While it took democracy 46 years to bring down just one wall; the wall of Berlin to reinstate itself as the legitimate ideology. Today as many new walls have been resurrected by its successors states”
It suggests how difficult and at the same time, important it is to nurture and protect the institutions that are subjected to a rapid and vigorous decay in the age of autocracy.
The Jinx of Reagan and Thatcher: The Discontent with the Neoliberalism
The primary reason for the fall of the USSR was its crippled economy and the inability of the Communist model to fulfill the popular demands or hold itself against its competitive ideology, the fervent Neoliberalism; that seemed to be not only practical but also yielding profound results. With its success, the market efficiency under Neoliberalism evolved into something of a religion soon after.
The Neoliberal era was a boon for the elites of the wall-street but it fell heavy on the general public on the streets
Neoliberalism was later wed with Libertarianism and anti-statist policies took the center. The liberal idea of personal responsibility was taken to the extreme by the neoliberals undermining the state’s role in social welfare. Deregulation was helpful in many sectors of the economy but it proved to be disastrous when applied to the financial sector as they were blind to the fact that financial institutions behave very differently from that of the firms in the real economy.
Soon after, the world saw what Neo-Liberalism had to offer, a housing bubble also called the subprime mortgage crisis, and then subsequently a Global economic crisis in 2008. The result of neoliberal policies was that in 2010, the aggregate income was higher than ever but the inequality within the state had grown enormously, the aggregate share of income (after the tax) held by the top 10 percent of earners increased from 7.5 percent to 14 percent in the US alone. The market crash wasn't the symptom of the failure of Neo-liberalism but rather it was the culminating point as the democratic recession had already begun in the mid-2005. The growing social disparity and unequal distribution of wealth brought neoliberalism at odds with the public. What Neoliberalism had promised at the time of Thatcher and Reagan, couldn’t sustain the same in the years that followed. It supplied the capitalist with endless money but the living standards of the people in the streets dropped 12 spots from 2008 to 2014.
“The Neoliberal era was a boon for the elites of the wall-street but it fell heavy on the general public on the streets”
The time was ripe for the populists; who were not only anti-globalists but also anti-elite, to take over the global political stage and they surely didn’t miss any chance. Xi Jinping offered to the world, an alternative model of economy; the market system, and consolidated his position at home and abroad. China’s rise proved to be the last nail in the coffin of Neoliberals and Globalists, as states all around the world started questioning the liberal ideal of free and unrestricted trade and the state’s role in the economy. Trump’s protectionist policies are a clear manifestation that the leader of the Liberal world has lost faith in Neoliberalism and is looking for alternative models.
Threat to the God's own country: Globalisation on the loose
Liberalism celebrated the triumph of Globalisation, global ideals and values as the new norm replacing the old ethos of Militarisation, chauvinism, and most importantly Nationalism, the ideas that were local and parochial in their outlook. The political world has evolved beyond the foundational Westphalian phase and the traditional concept of sovereignty is now replaced by pooled sovereignty and the state entity like the European Union.
The surge of Populism is not something that came in 2016 when Trump won the US presidential election but rather a reaction to the global surge of Identity politics, and the harms and challenges posed by Neoliberalism and hyper Globalisation in the last century
The so-called product of Globalisation i.e. immigrants brought their culture and identities triggering a reaction and starting a clash of identities in the West. The era of Identity politics had arrived and all politicians irrespective of the left and right, started gnawing on the opportunity to use the situation for their benefit eroding democracy. Both Globalisation and Immigrants from the 'Under transformation area' have reinstated nationalism to the core of global politics once again; the cultural war has begun. The foreign culture and values are now meddling with the established ideals, norms, and traditions of the local communities. The dream of a pluralist society is over, as the world is now divided into US vs Them and the populist politicians have emerged as the savior, the messiah of their respective nations and countries.
They give a public nostalgia that they had such a rich legacy, profound culture, and glorified history, a once heavenly ordained nation as Modi gives a utopian nostalgia to the Indians in the slogan of ‘Akhand Bharat-the United India’ that comprises many of the independent states of the subcontinent and Asia including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Myanmar. Modi gave the public a view of a utopian society where Hindu traditions and values were dominant and where there was a single unified identity of Hindutva engulfing all the minor identities of present-day India. “We have been a mental slave not for 200 years of British colonial era but a whole 1200 years”, pointing towards Islam and its rule in India.
Consequently, attacks on monumental masterpieces of Muslim rule like the Taj Mahal, Qutub Minar, and Babri Mosque came under the attack of the far right, followed by discriminatory policies like abrogation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir (the only Muslim-dominated state in India) and citizen amendments specifically targeting minorities. Another Populist Viktor Orban remembers Pre-World War I Hungary, losing 2-3rd of its are in the treaty of Trianon in 1920 attacking the immigrant policies of the European Union and dreaming of creating an ‘illiberal state’ in the heart of Liberal Europe. The public is left with no choice but to support these so-called messiah or else the whole survival of their culture, their identity, and their state would be threatened.
To conclude, the surge of Populism is not something that came in 2016 when Trump won the US presidential election but rather a reaction to the global surge of Identity politics, and the harms and challenges posed by Neoliberalism and hyper Globalisation in the last century. Whenever a political or ideological trend emerges, it’s quickly judged that it will stay forever, but in reality, history is more cyclic than linear. Nothing is permanent in this world, these trends are only temporary.
The world has witnessed many such trends in the past like ‘les trente glorieuses’- the glorious thirty years of economic growth in the West post World War II, followed by the Neo-liberal era that lasted from 1979 until it was discredited by the global financial crisis of 2008. The trend of populism might also last for another 30-40 years, while the liberals can hope that the incompetence of the populists will eventually kick them out democratically, but the real question is how to protect from these so-called ‘utopian social engineers’, the institutions that are very essence of the current political order, which are very decay-prone and have taken centuries for its evolution and development. By the time, this trend subsides irreparable damage may have already been done to the environment threatening the existence of humanity and the stability of the Global politics that has put all its weight and stability over these leaders instead of law and institutions.