Carl Von Clausewitz, an eighteenth-century Prussian general and military theorist, says that the trinity of war governs the conduct of war. By trinity of war he means three things: the government, population and military force of a country. The inter-connectivity of these three factors provides the platform on which war is fought in a province, country, region or a continent.
These factors evoke reasons, emotions, passions, probability and chance during war. The reason is represented by the government that justifies its actions to the public. Public opinion in turn shapes the policy of government. Emotions and passions are therefore representative of the people of the land.
Public opinion influences military action whereas the will of the army reflects the opinion of the people. Pragmatism, leadership and ability to mobilize the people for war make the task of a government easier and less troublesome. However, irregular wars require different approaches, techniques and strategies.
In irregular warfare, the importance of emotions and passions takes precedence over all other factors in the regular theater of war. The population becomes a vital source of information gathering, logistical support, human resource, shelter provision, financial assistance, social capital and the means of a weapon supply. It is therefore necessary for counter-terror forces to hold sway of the population living not only in the geographical boundaries of the country but also those residing in lands, especially contiguous to the geography of the country.
Such a populace is connected to the mainland inhabitants through the internet, trade and other information technology-based activities of mutual interest. The shifting of a population from one geographical area to another provides a natural conduit for terror shelter for anti-state elements. The rate of migration from rural and semi-settled areas to peri-urban or settled districts cause challenges for law-enforcement agencies and counter-terror forces to take out terror operators from the population swamp.
The ethnic and religious composition of a population adds to the difficulty posed by population migration for law enforcers. It is quite easy for a terror operator to take refuge among the people of the same ethnic and religious background. For example, a house in the inner city in Lahore collapsed in October 2016 when an explosive went off in the building in which fifteen persons were injured. Eight hand grenades were recovered from the debris which was believed to be manufactured by some of the persons living in the building. The locality was situated in a Shia community and the perpetrators were conveniently camouflaged in the area, owing to their religious background.
Similarly, a suicide attack conducted near Arfa Karim Tower in July 2017 in Lahore is believed to be the work of the Swat chapter of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Reportedly, the suicide attacker took refuge among the Swati population living in the suburb of Lahore. Naturally a person belonging to a particular religion can easily find accommodation among his or her co-religionists. Hence demographic changes provide natural assistance to terror outfits for keeping alive their sleeper cells for a long time. The importance of a regular census is therefore critical for counter-terror forces.
The recent census in Pakistan has revealed interesting patterns of demographic changes and anthropological migration. The population has increased from 140 million in 1998 to 207 million in 2017. The yearly increase in population rate is approximately 2.5 percent. Punjab remains the most populous province as compared to Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
The census results show that urban cities such as Peshawar, Lahore, Karachi, Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala, Islamabad, Hyderabad and Quetta have ballooned. The composition and distribution of different ethnic groups in these cities and their migration patterns need to be properly analyzed in order to determine the threat matrix for counter-terror operations. This raises an important question: how to dominate the people of an area continuously?
There are many advantages to controlling a population in limited warfare. First, the population provides an essential tool for conducting non-kinetic actions. A certain section of the population can be used to propagate the views of their handlers and warn potential adversaries of dire consequences.
In case of alien lands, a certain pressure group can be controlled effectively to perpetuate policies of their agents. There might not be any requirement of physical contact or face-to-face meetings, as the digital medium has overcome the drawbacks of physical distances.
Second, a complete knowledge about the population gives the CT operators the ability to conduct successful targeted operations in a given area. A CT operation in an urban area is a difficult task and it fails to meet success unless accurate inside information is available. Even in a neighboring state, the information about undesired elements can be shared through information technology with active cooperation of a select section of society.
Third, population control can effectively be maintained through constant brainwashing by means of electronic and print media, digital lecturing and tutoring, limited people-to-people contact, project launching at a peculiar location, maintaining ethnic and religious connections and enhancing effective financial distribution mechanisms.
Fourth, a population response and their behavior can be controlled through radicalization techniques. The more a leader presses certain themes, the more these themes are etched into the memories of his or her audience. The latter start making up their minds and align themselves with the views of their leader. IT-based media provide the supporting data on the issue which further strengthens the conviction and belief of a person.
Lastly, population increase, its migration and diffusion should be taken very seriously. The future wars might not be fought with tanks, airplanes and nukes but by framing and re-framing mental images through the electronic media. In the same vein, a large section of population can also be psychologically influenced to stand up against the government and other state institutions on different issues.
Once a population is radicalized it can be used for any specific purpose in irregular warfare like creating nationalistic euphoria and pressuring adversaries as has been witnessed in the case of North Korea recently. In its ultimate form, a close knit social networking is developed in which anything heard or seen apart from what has been perceived as true is considered to be false, untrue and incorrect.
The writer is a Senior Police Manager and Supervisor and a PSP officer with an MPA from Columbia University, NY. He is alumni of the School of International & Public Affairs, a Fulbright Scholar (2009-11) and a member of the International Police Association (2016)
These factors evoke reasons, emotions, passions, probability and chance during war. The reason is represented by the government that justifies its actions to the public. Public opinion in turn shapes the policy of government. Emotions and passions are therefore representative of the people of the land.
Public opinion influences military action whereas the will of the army reflects the opinion of the people. Pragmatism, leadership and ability to mobilize the people for war make the task of a government easier and less troublesome. However, irregular wars require different approaches, techniques and strategies.
In irregular warfare, the importance of emotions and passions takes precedence over all other factors in the regular theater of war. The population becomes a vital source of information gathering, logistical support, human resource, shelter provision, financial assistance, social capital and the means of a weapon supply. It is therefore necessary for counter-terror forces to hold sway of the population living not only in the geographical boundaries of the country but also those residing in lands, especially contiguous to the geography of the country.
Such a populace is connected to the mainland inhabitants through the internet, trade and other information technology-based activities of mutual interest. The shifting of a population from one geographical area to another provides a natural conduit for terror shelter for anti-state elements. The rate of migration from rural and semi-settled areas to peri-urban or settled districts cause challenges for law-enforcement agencies and counter-terror forces to take out terror operators from the population swamp.
Demographic changes provide natural assistance to terror outfits for keeping alive their sleeper cells for a long time
The ethnic and religious composition of a population adds to the difficulty posed by population migration for law enforcers. It is quite easy for a terror operator to take refuge among the people of the same ethnic and religious background. For example, a house in the inner city in Lahore collapsed in October 2016 when an explosive went off in the building in which fifteen persons were injured. Eight hand grenades were recovered from the debris which was believed to be manufactured by some of the persons living in the building. The locality was situated in a Shia community and the perpetrators were conveniently camouflaged in the area, owing to their religious background.
Similarly, a suicide attack conducted near Arfa Karim Tower in July 2017 in Lahore is believed to be the work of the Swat chapter of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Reportedly, the suicide attacker took refuge among the Swati population living in the suburb of Lahore. Naturally a person belonging to a particular religion can easily find accommodation among his or her co-religionists. Hence demographic changes provide natural assistance to terror outfits for keeping alive their sleeper cells for a long time. The importance of a regular census is therefore critical for counter-terror forces.
The recent census in Pakistan has revealed interesting patterns of demographic changes and anthropological migration. The population has increased from 140 million in 1998 to 207 million in 2017. The yearly increase in population rate is approximately 2.5 percent. Punjab remains the most populous province as compared to Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
The census results show that urban cities such as Peshawar, Lahore, Karachi, Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala, Islamabad, Hyderabad and Quetta have ballooned. The composition and distribution of different ethnic groups in these cities and their migration patterns need to be properly analyzed in order to determine the threat matrix for counter-terror operations. This raises an important question: how to dominate the people of an area continuously?
There are many advantages to controlling a population in limited warfare. First, the population provides an essential tool for conducting non-kinetic actions. A certain section of the population can be used to propagate the views of their handlers and warn potential adversaries of dire consequences.
In case of alien lands, a certain pressure group can be controlled effectively to perpetuate policies of their agents. There might not be any requirement of physical contact or face-to-face meetings, as the digital medium has overcome the drawbacks of physical distances.
Second, a complete knowledge about the population gives the CT operators the ability to conduct successful targeted operations in a given area. A CT operation in an urban area is a difficult task and it fails to meet success unless accurate inside information is available. Even in a neighboring state, the information about undesired elements can be shared through information technology with active cooperation of a select section of society.
Third, population control can effectively be maintained through constant brainwashing by means of electronic and print media, digital lecturing and tutoring, limited people-to-people contact, project launching at a peculiar location, maintaining ethnic and religious connections and enhancing effective financial distribution mechanisms.
Fourth, a population response and their behavior can be controlled through radicalization techniques. The more a leader presses certain themes, the more these themes are etched into the memories of his or her audience. The latter start making up their minds and align themselves with the views of their leader. IT-based media provide the supporting data on the issue which further strengthens the conviction and belief of a person.
Lastly, population increase, its migration and diffusion should be taken very seriously. The future wars might not be fought with tanks, airplanes and nukes but by framing and re-framing mental images through the electronic media. In the same vein, a large section of population can also be psychologically influenced to stand up against the government and other state institutions on different issues.
Once a population is radicalized it can be used for any specific purpose in irregular warfare like creating nationalistic euphoria and pressuring adversaries as has been witnessed in the case of North Korea recently. In its ultimate form, a close knit social networking is developed in which anything heard or seen apart from what has been perceived as true is considered to be false, untrue and incorrect.
The writer is a Senior Police Manager and Supervisor and a PSP officer with an MPA from Columbia University, NY. He is alumni of the School of International & Public Affairs, a Fulbright Scholar (2009-11) and a member of the International Police Association (2016)