Senior analyst Kamran Yousaf said in his recent vlog that after the SC order to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), the establishment has its own stance, which is different from the aggressive and confrontational posture adopted by the PDM coalition government.
According to Yousaf, the military establishment now has a minimalist footprint compared to earlier times when the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) used to host daily press briefings, along with statements on mainstream media which were attributed to army chiefs. "Even though the establishment says it no longer has a role in national politics, it is not like an electricity switch that one can switch on or off," Yousaf said. "It is difficult to find out what is actually going on inside the establishment, they and the security agencies have limited their visbility and media interactions are also minimal," Yousaf said as he explained the conditions from which he was trying to relay source information.
"If elections are not held in Punjab, it will be disastrous, and any more delays could lead things out of control," is the establishment's advice to army chief Gen. Asim Munir, according to Kamran Yousaf who adds that the chief is being advised to "let elections happen in the Punjab, if they don't happen then the situation would get extremely bad". However, Kamran concludes that it is so far uncertain whether the army chief will act on this advice from the establishment, or not.
Earlier, Kamran Yousaf had said that the establishment was no longer seeking to mend fences with former premier Imran Khan, even though the Khan is often found to be eager to restore his contacts with the powerful quarters. Yousaf also delved into the background of why the current establishment would be apprehensive of Khan returning to power, which Yousaf says is widely believed to be the likely outcome if elections are held. Kamran Yousaf also referred to the 'history' between Imran Khan and Gen. Asim Munir; that the current army chief had been "sacked" as DG ISI by Khan when he was premier, and that Khan tried his best to prevent Munir from becoming chief of army staff. Kamran Yousaf goes so far as to say Khan was making Gen. Asim Munir's candidature problematic "at the behest of General Faiz".
Yousaf also spoke about the TIME magazine article on Imran Khan, and lamented how Pakistanis were more eager to share the magazine cover than to actually read what the article said about the former prime minister. Yousaf says the TIME article notes that "when Khan came to power, he perhaps realized that it was easier to be in opposition than to implement things while in government, because Khan's government could not deliver".
As per Yousaf, "the stakes are so high now that the establishment and military leadership knows if Imran Khan is elected again, then the incumbent army chief's future will also be in question". Yousaf dispels the notion that the establishment is more hesitant at holding general elections than the PDM. Yousaf also said that whether one agrees with the SC judgment or not, the judicial order will have to be implemented. Even though the courts have given judgments that have later been dubbed "judicial murder", those judgments were still enacted. "If the government refuses to implement the Supreme Court orders, then they can be subjected to contempt of court," Yousaf said.
It is also possible that PM Shehbaz could be "removed", which would give the PDM government a narrative as well as a way out of the current predicament. "This is an excellent option for PDM, they will get a narrative that they fought with the judiciary and they were removed from office," Kamran Yousaf purports. However, he concedes that much of this depends on what the establishment is thinking.
Kamran Yousaf says that PTI supporters are buoyant that whenever elections are held, they would come to power with 3/4th majority, over and above the 2/3rd majority required to amend the constitution. "These are exaggerations, but one thing is known: PTI will emerge as the single largest party," Kamran Yousaf purports. In anticipation of such a scenario, Yousaf proposes that it would be best if the establishment and the former prime minister "patch up" their relations - or at least develop an "understanding" - as the current military leadership will have to work with whoever comes to power after elections.