The Pakistani nation is mired between the egocentric Imran Khan and the stern Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. History will decide which one of them is the devil and which one the deep sea.
Since August 14, the people of Pakistan have seen a style of politics that dominated the decade of the 1990s. The only difference is the role of the military establishment. The revolutionaries were hoping that the “third umpire” would intervene, but the cricket-loving Nawaz Sharif is still batting.
Gen Raheel Sharif, who recently concluded his ‘successful’ visit to the United States, was said to have shunned the designs to prematurely dislodge the PML-N government. And he had his reasons.
On November 30, the PTI staged a large protest gathering outside the Parliament. Their chairman announced his “Plan C.” He vowed to shut the entire country down on December 16 after first doing a similar exercise in Lahore, Faisalabad and Karachi.
Imran Khan addresses a press conference on November 28
Later, someone must have told him that the date coincides with the anniversary of Dhaka Fall. The critics and PML-N hawks had already started comparing PTI with Mukti Bahini, the Bengali separatist movement that, in collusion with Indian forces, managed to dismember Pakistan in 1971.
They were hoping the 'third umpire' would intervene, but Nawaz Sharif is still batting
The very next day, the PTI pushed the date to December 18. Elaborating on the plan, PTI leaders said the shutdown would not be a shutter-down, which means shops will remain open and business will continue as usual.
Mr Khan has long captured public attention. Before his landmark Lahore rally in March 2013, he was not taken as a serious political contender. The perceptions changed overnight.
Electronic media began promoting his narrative and he earned wide urban support in the run up to 2013 general elections. When he failed to translate the same support into electoral victory, he smelled conspiracy and rejected the entire process.
But something was missing. Even if the PTI would have won the constituencies that were allegedly rigged, it could not reach the magic number of 172 in the National Assembly to elect Mr Khan the prime minister.
But who cares? As long as he is saying what the people want to hear, he will remain in the limelight no matter how detrimental it may be for the democracy, in general, and the PML-N government, in particular.
Gen Raheel Sharif has just returned from a visit to the US
Mr Khan’s goal is far from achievable in the short term. He yearns to become prime minister. Every politician wishes to reach the top, but will he be able to get there without necessary structural reforms? Probably not.
The complexity of modern day politics, the electronic media revolution and the regional situation have blocked many shortcuts. Besides, the PTI has isolated itself with its confrontational politics. Most importantly, the top military brass is repulsive to the idea of a coup when it already carries a lot of baggage.
Despite all odds and handicaps, Mr Khan is enjoying every moment of his unique joyride of popularity. If any Pakistani politician has practically demonstrated the ST Coleridge’s classic idea of “suspension of disbelief,” it is Mr Khan.
Like a crafty writer he has infused a “human interest and a semblance of truth” into a fantastic tale. And, therefore, people have suspended their judgment concerning the implausibility of the narrative and the result. Many people tend to believe whatever Mr Khan says no matter how preposterous his assertions or accusations are.
The PTI chairman also warned of a more threatening “Plan D” that will follow the countrywide shutdown. However, once again he threw the ball in the government’s court, asking them to start a dialogue and fulfill his demands in four to six weeks. The government looks uncompromising.
Railways Minister Khawaja Saad Rafique made it clear the government would not initiate the dialogue under duress. He asked PTI leaders to tone down their rhetoric in order to develop a congenial atmosphere for the dialogue.
After braving Mr Khan’s verbal attacks for months, the PML-N government has devised a counter strategy, that is to “pay him back in the same coin.” It has designed a costly media campaign craftily combining hostile sound-bites by Mr Khan. The ministers are questioning his source of income and accusing him of tax evasion.
Despite upping the ante, the government sticks to the policy of wearing Mr Khan out. His call for Civil Disobedience has failed. Hardly any known PTI leader followed his directive of not paying electricity and gas bills. The so-called sit-in at D-Chowk has already lost its glare. Tahirul Qadri has closed up shop. Disgruntled political forces like Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) refused to be part of the PTI protest. And the People’s Party is not interested in dislodging the PML-N government.
Now the call of a complete shutdown is likely to miss the target too, although it may create ripples in fast shrinking PTI pond. But it cannot be taken lightly.
With each failure, PTI will become more aggressive
Assuming the PTI manages to shut Karachi down for one day, it would cost more than Rs 10 billion to the national economy. The coastal city is the country’s economic hub that contributes around $90 billion to the annual GDP and generates 65 percent of the national revenue. One can imagine what will happen if the entire country is shut down just for a day.
Meanwhile, frustration is growing in the PTI ranks. It has missed too many targets. With each failure the party will become more aggressive. Dialogue, which is the only way forward, seems like an elusive dream.
Shahzad Raza is an Islamabad-based journalist Twitter: @shahzadrez
