Trilateral consultations between Pakistan, China and Russia on the rise of the terrorist Islamic State (IS) group in Afghanistan and prospects of peace have brought simmering anxiety in Kabul, Delhi and Washington, about an emerging strategic grouping in the region, to full boil.
Decisions taken at the trilateral meeting in Moscow were to expand the process to include other stakeholders including Afghanistan and signal Chinese and Russian willingness, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, to remove Taliban leaders from the UN sanctions list, a key Taliban demand, for facilitating the resumption of the stalemated reconciliation process between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
The trilateral dialogue, seen by some paranoid international observers as a new process, was as a matter of fact initiated in 2013 when a number of regional initiatives were created ahead of the 2014 transition in Afghanistan to improve coordination among countries in its neighbourhood. The latest Moscow meeting was the third in the series, reviving the mechanism after a break of few years. The first two meetings were hosted by Beijing and Islamabad. These worried observers also forget that in 2013 a similar arrangement on Afghanistan involving India, China and Russia was also initiated. Absurd as it may seem, neither of these trilaterals formed by the ‘close neighbours of Afghanistan’ to contain any spill-over effect of Afghan conflict included Afghanistan itself. Curiously, nobody resented Afghanistan’s absence when these processes were born.
“For these three countries (Pakistan, China and Russia) developments in Afghanistan and the establishment of lasting peace are vitally important,” says Ambassador (retd) Aziz Ahmed Khan. “A trilateral consultative process for the exchange of ideas is thus quite natural, desirable and mutually beneficial.”
Moscow and Beijing’s security concerns that IS is establishing a safe haven in Afghanistan, which is shared by Pakistan, is prima facie the motivating factor behind this cooperation. “We [Russians] don’t have any peace plan for Afghanistan,” clarified Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov, in an interview with Turkey’s state-run newswire Anadolu. “Peace should be between the Taliban and the Afghan government. For that, we should be asked according to international law and the principles of foreign policy [of the] Russian Federation. Both sides should ask us. We haven’t gotten such a request yet.”
Of course, the renewal of the three-way mechanism in the fast changing geopolitical environment was always set to raise eyebrows. Some of the important developments that added to the anxiety were Russia’s growing assertiveness and role in dealing with conflicts, particularly in Syria, Pakistan’s frosty ties with Afghanistan and India and heightened competition between US and China for influence in the region.
On a lighter note, everyone apparently missed that the Moscow trilateral coincidentally took place on the December 27 anniversary of Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. And while the meeting reinforced concerns among Afghanistan, India, and US about the evolving geopolitical situation, each one of them had a different reason to worry about it.
Kabul is generally more apprehensive about Pakistan’s presence in the trilateral process.
Afghan Interior Ministry spokesman Sediq Sediqqi urges Russia and China to stand with Afghanistan in its fight against terrorists, but says, “Pakistan can’t be expected to do that.”
The Afghan government, which was peeved at having not been invited, has shown little keenness for the trilateral forum’s decision to invite it to its future consultations. “Afghanistan taking umbrage just exposes the lack of confidence the government of Afghanistan has in itself,” Amb Khan maintains. “Quite obviously, the three countries cannot impose anything on Afghanistan and in my view these consultations are being undertaken to have a more coordinated position on the larger peace process.” He adds that Kabul could have quietly sought clarifications from the countries attending the Moscow trilateral besides asking them to keep it briefed on the results of these consultations. “Rather than being irritable, the Afghan government should act with confidence and maturity and appreciate the sincere efforts its friends are making to bring durable peace to their country,” he advises.
Afghanistan strongly reacted to the suggestion from Russia and China that they could be “flexible” in their “approach to delisting Afghan individuals from the UN sanctions lists as their contribution to the efforts aimed at launching peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban.”
Sediqqi asserts that it is for the Afghan people to decide and not others. The Taliban have, however, welcomed the outcome document of the Moscow meeting.
The Afghan government also has reservations about the trilateral meeting’s assessment that IS, which also goes by the Arabic acronym Daesh, was increasing its activities in Afghanistan. In Kabul’s view, the Taliban and Haqqani Network are a bigger problem than Daesh.
Delhi is, meanwhile, taking a serious view of this ‘newfound’ closeness between Moscow, Beijing and Islamabad on regional matters. The fear in the Indian quarters is that it would further strengthen the Pakistan-China collaboration in the region and potentially alter the regional dynamics.
Washington has also been watching this development with considerable disquiet, although it has not been very expressive about it. The US sees the Moscow trilateral on Afghanistan as a continuation of the Russian strategy to counteract its influence in the international arena.
Before the trilateral on Afghanistan, Russia hosted one on Syria involving Iran and Turkey after which the three helped broker a ceasefire in Syria that went into effect on Dec 30 and is by and large holding till now. From an American perspective, Russia taking up a greater role in resolving disputes is a worrying sign.
The direction of this trilateral cooperation would be defined by how the participating countries move in the coming days. There are at least two initial steps that are publicly known. One is by Moscow to apply a hold on a request to the United Nations from the Afghan government to delist former war lord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar from the UN sanctions list after he signed a peace deal. No reason has been given by Russia except that it needed more time to deliberate about the Afghan request. But, it is clear that Russia is ready to leverage all options to assert itself.
The second was a telephone call by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Gen. Qamar Bajwa to the Afghan leadership to extend New Year greetings. This new outreach from Pakistan is seen as an attempt to reduce tensions with its neighbour.
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad and can be reached at mamoonarubab@gmail.com and @bokhari_mr
Decisions taken at the trilateral meeting in Moscow were to expand the process to include other stakeholders including Afghanistan and signal Chinese and Russian willingness, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, to remove Taliban leaders from the UN sanctions list, a key Taliban demand, for facilitating the resumption of the stalemated reconciliation process between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
The trilateral dialogue, seen by some paranoid international observers as a new process, was as a matter of fact initiated in 2013 when a number of regional initiatives were created ahead of the 2014 transition in Afghanistan to improve coordination among countries in its neighbourhood. The latest Moscow meeting was the third in the series, reviving the mechanism after a break of few years. The first two meetings were hosted by Beijing and Islamabad. These worried observers also forget that in 2013 a similar arrangement on Afghanistan involving India, China and Russia was also initiated. Absurd as it may seem, neither of these trilaterals formed by the ‘close neighbours of Afghanistan’ to contain any spill-over effect of Afghan conflict included Afghanistan itself. Curiously, nobody resented Afghanistan’s absence when these processes were born.
“For these three countries (Pakistan, China and Russia) developments in Afghanistan and the establishment of lasting peace are vitally important,” says Ambassador (retd) Aziz Ahmed Khan. “A trilateral consultative process for the exchange of ideas is thus quite natural, desirable and mutually beneficial.”
A Moscow and Beijing's security concerns that IS is establishing a safe haven in Afghanistan, which is shared by Pakistan, is prima facie the motivating factor behind this cooperation. Pakistan, China and Russia worry Kabul, Delhi and Washington with their consultations on Afghanistan's IS problem
Moscow and Beijing’s security concerns that IS is establishing a safe haven in Afghanistan, which is shared by Pakistan, is prima facie the motivating factor behind this cooperation. “We [Russians] don’t have any peace plan for Afghanistan,” clarified Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov, in an interview with Turkey’s state-run newswire Anadolu. “Peace should be between the Taliban and the Afghan government. For that, we should be asked according to international law and the principles of foreign policy [of the] Russian Federation. Both sides should ask us. We haven’t gotten such a request yet.”
Of course, the renewal of the three-way mechanism in the fast changing geopolitical environment was always set to raise eyebrows. Some of the important developments that added to the anxiety were Russia’s growing assertiveness and role in dealing with conflicts, particularly in Syria, Pakistan’s frosty ties with Afghanistan and India and heightened competition between US and China for influence in the region.
On a lighter note, everyone apparently missed that the Moscow trilateral coincidentally took place on the December 27 anniversary of Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. And while the meeting reinforced concerns among Afghanistan, India, and US about the evolving geopolitical situation, each one of them had a different reason to worry about it.
Kabul is generally more apprehensive about Pakistan’s presence in the trilateral process.
Afghan Interior Ministry spokesman Sediq Sediqqi urges Russia and China to stand with Afghanistan in its fight against terrorists, but says, “Pakistan can’t be expected to do that.”
The Afghan government, which was peeved at having not been invited, has shown little keenness for the trilateral forum’s decision to invite it to its future consultations. “Afghanistan taking umbrage just exposes the lack of confidence the government of Afghanistan has in itself,” Amb Khan maintains. “Quite obviously, the three countries cannot impose anything on Afghanistan and in my view these consultations are being undertaken to have a more coordinated position on the larger peace process.” He adds that Kabul could have quietly sought clarifications from the countries attending the Moscow trilateral besides asking them to keep it briefed on the results of these consultations. “Rather than being irritable, the Afghan government should act with confidence and maturity and appreciate the sincere efforts its friends are making to bring durable peace to their country,” he advises.
Afghanistan strongly reacted to the suggestion from Russia and China that they could be “flexible” in their “approach to delisting Afghan individuals from the UN sanctions lists as their contribution to the efforts aimed at launching peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban.”
Sediqqi asserts that it is for the Afghan people to decide and not others. The Taliban have, however, welcomed the outcome document of the Moscow meeting.
The Afghan government also has reservations about the trilateral meeting’s assessment that IS, which also goes by the Arabic acronym Daesh, was increasing its activities in Afghanistan. In Kabul’s view, the Taliban and Haqqani Network are a bigger problem than Daesh.
Delhi is, meanwhile, taking a serious view of this ‘newfound’ closeness between Moscow, Beijing and Islamabad on regional matters. The fear in the Indian quarters is that it would further strengthen the Pakistan-China collaboration in the region and potentially alter the regional dynamics.
Washington has also been watching this development with considerable disquiet, although it has not been very expressive about it. The US sees the Moscow trilateral on Afghanistan as a continuation of the Russian strategy to counteract its influence in the international arena.
Before the trilateral on Afghanistan, Russia hosted one on Syria involving Iran and Turkey after which the three helped broker a ceasefire in Syria that went into effect on Dec 30 and is by and large holding till now. From an American perspective, Russia taking up a greater role in resolving disputes is a worrying sign.
The direction of this trilateral cooperation would be defined by how the participating countries move in the coming days. There are at least two initial steps that are publicly known. One is by Moscow to apply a hold on a request to the United Nations from the Afghan government to delist former war lord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar from the UN sanctions list after he signed a peace deal. No reason has been given by Russia except that it needed more time to deliberate about the Afghan request. But, it is clear that Russia is ready to leverage all options to assert itself.
The second was a telephone call by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Gen. Qamar Bajwa to the Afghan leadership to extend New Year greetings. This new outreach from Pakistan is seen as an attempt to reduce tensions with its neighbour.
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad and can be reached at mamoonarubab@gmail.com and @bokhari_mr