In the picturesque yet tumultuous region of Indian Jammu and Kashmir, the impact of political decisions echo against the backdrop of the Himalayas, shaping lives and landscapes. On August 5, 2019, the history of this storied land saw a significant turning point after the Indian government decided to revoke the disputed region's special constitutional status.
This monumental step, proclaimed to integrate the region more closely with the rest of India, reconfigured its administrative structure into two centrally administered territories. The government argued that this move would lead the troubled region toward peace and prosperity.
But five years later, the region is still awaiting the promise of peace and security to materialise and for the restoration of democracy - even the flawed version which existed on August 4, 2019. The region continues to be ruled by the unelected bureaucracy. Despite a directive from the Supreme Court of India to hold fresh elections by September 2024 and restore the region's statehood, a restructured New Delhi appears to lack the urgency in implementing this decision.
As the election deadline nears, New Delhi appears more focused on expanding the administrative authorities of its Lieutenant Governor (LG), thus steeling its grip on the region. This is because the LG has the final say on the functioning of the All India Services in the valley, including the senior bureaucracy, will also oversee institutions such as the Anti-Corruption Bureau, Directorate of Public Prosecutions, Prisons, the appointment of the Advocate General, and other law officers, as well as the Jammu and Kashmir Forensic Science Laboratory.
The political class of the valley fears that, given how New Delhi is empowering the LG, any elected legislature will end up with little to no real power.
There is now growing concern that this union territory may become like Delhi, where the chief minister and the cabinet are often blamed for all issues even though they are powerless to effect any real change.
Veteran scholar Radha Kumar, who has also served as a government interlocutor for Jammu and Kashmir, told [The Friday Times] that the partial statehood status granted to the union territory of Delhi cannot be applied to Jammu and Kashmir, which has been converted from a state to a union territory.
"People want a government that is accessible and accountable, not a governor who can usurp the functions of an elected state administration and legislature", she says.
Kumar is also the co-chair of the Forum for Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir, which released its fifth annual report on the region since the abrogation of Article 370. The report reveals that the peace, stability and economic prosperity promised for the region continues to be the subject of intense dispute.
The central government's narrative of a thriving Kashmir freed from restrictive land ownership laws and buoyed by fresh investments stands in stark contrast to the report's critical findings. This report, authored by a coalition of eminent Indian citizens, including jurists, retired military officers, and historians, presents a sombre view of economic stagnation, rising unemployment, and deepening social malaise.
Governance and autonomy: A tug of war
The Supreme Court of India, while upholding the constitutional changes, mandated the restoration of state elections and a roadmap to statehood. But the ground reality is that elections remain a dream due to ongoing political maneuvering.
Even if an elected government comes to power, it would remain powerless, as the Lieutenant Governor retains control over the police, bureaucracy, the Attorney General, and prosecutor services
Allegations of gerrymandering and disproportionate electoral representation are rife, raising serious concerns about the democratic integrity of the forthcoming elections. The LG's enhanced powers overshadow elected representatives, exacerbating fears of a diluted democracy where autonomy is merely superficial.
The report further expressed concern over the enhanced powers granted to the LG ahead of the elections. Even if an elected government comes to power, it would remain powerless, as the Lieutenant Governor retains control over the police, bureaucracy, the Attorney General, and prosecutor services, it feared.
All appointments and related decisions would require the LG's approval, with no recourse for the Council of Ministers. Further, the LG's representatives are required to attend all cabinet meetings, and ministers must submit their schedules and meeting agendas in advance.
The report highlights the region's precarious state of judicial and press freedoms. Between 2020 and December 2023, over 2,700 individuals were detained under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) and the Public Safety Act (PSA), with 1,100 detained as 'overground workers' or facilitators of militancy. Although there has been a slight increase in the number of arrests cancelled by judges or bails granted against arrests in 2023-2024, the situation remains dire.
The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) had planned to hold public hearings on human rights violations in February 2024, but these were postponed indefinitely. The fate of 1,164 cases registered with the NHRC between October 2019 and December 2022 remains unknown, as does the status of the 765 complaints pending with the State Human Rights Commission when it was dissolved in 2019.
Journalists remain under pressure from both sides to report the 'truth' as the valley continues to witness rights abuses. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, at least seven journalists were imprisoned in India as of January 19, 2024, four of whom were from Jammu and Kashmir.
Economic reality: A suffocated promise
The report, "Jammu and Kashmir: A Human Rights Agenda for an Elected Administration," illuminates the region's economic woes. It highlights a decline in the Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) growth from a robust 13.28% in the pre-2019 era to a mere 8.73% post-Article 370 abrogation.
Local industries, which once thrived under regional protections, now face national competitors, fundamentally altering the region's business landscape.
While the government argues that its moves have allowed investment to flow into the region, the realisation of investment proposals remains scant, painting a grim picture of unfulfilled promises and unrealised potential.
The agricultural sector has been the hardest hit, particularly the iconic Kashmiri apple orchards and saffron fields, which face unprecedented challenges. Drastic reductions in import duties have flooded the market with foreign produce, undermining local farmers whose livelihoods depend on these crops.
Kashmir's fruit growers are particularly concerned over the Union Finance Ministry's decision to cut import duties by 20% on walnuts and apples. This concern is compounded by the influx of fruits from China, Turkey, and the US.
The reduction of import duties on Washington apples from 70% previously to 50% has further harmed local apple growers, cumulatively affecting around 350,000 people in the valley.
With a population of 12.5 million, the state has only 41 psychiatrists, most of whom are based in Srinagar and Jammu, with only five or six working at the district level
Additionally, Kashmir's famed saffron production has plummeted, with output declining from 8 tonnes in 2010-2011 to just 2.6 tonnes in 2023-2024—a 67.5% decrease. The area under saffron cultivation has also shrunk significantly.
Climatic adversities and infrastructural neglect compound the economic strain caused by the reduction in agricultural output.
The unraveling of the economic fabric parallels a fraying social tapestry.
The region's youth faces an alarming increase in unemployment and dwindling economic prospects. Data from April 2023 to March 2024 showed that Jammu and Kashmir's unemployment rate jumped to 18.3%, the highest recorded in any Indian territory.
This has greatly contributed to increased drug abuse in the region. The report highlighted that over the past five years, Kashmir has become one of the top regions for drug abusers, with an estimated 900,000 drug addicts.
Depression and suicide rates in the valley are climbing sharply, notably impacting the young population, who find themselves caught between diminishing opportunities and growing despair.
Approximately 55.72% of Jammu and Kashmir's population was found to be suffering from depression, with the highest incidence of depression and other mental health issues found among youngsters aged between 15-35 years. In rural areas, the depression rate among women is about 93.10%, compared to 6.8% among men.
The worsening mental health of locals has precipitated into a rising suicide rate in the valley, which has risen from 2.10 per 100,000 in 2020 to 2.40 in 2023-2024.
Following the abrogation of Article 370 and the COVID-19 pandemic, the suicide rate steadily increased in the valley between 2019 and 2021 and beyond. In 2022, Jammu and Kashmir recorded the highest rate of suicide attempts. The most common methods of suicide include drug overdose and drowning, which offer minimal opportunities to rescue the victims. Additionally, 16 students from Jammu and Kashmir studying outside the state have committed suicide, underscoring the weakness of the mental health infrastructure. With a population of 12.5 million, the state has only 41 psychiatrists, most of whom are based in Srinagar and Jammu, with only five or six working at the district level.
"Parents today want their children to settle outside of Kashmir, seeking careers that do not involve any engagement with the administration.
Those who can afford it, wish to send their children abroad," said a senior Kashmir-based journalist who preferred to remain unnamed.
While the Indian government lauds its policy of abrogating Article 370 as a harbinger of peace, the reality is that it has created a landscape fraught with economic hardship, social unrest, and political manipulation. In short, the valley is more volatile today than in the past.
The vision for a peaceful and prosperous Jammu and Kashmir remains uncertain. It is caught between political ambitions and the complex socio-economic and cultural realities of the region. The path forward is unclear, marked by the best intentions but fraught with challenges and discontent.