As India gears up to vote in the third crucial phase of the ongoing general election, there is a close contest for 261 seats in the Lok Sabha, where either BJP or Congress are in a direct contest, or the entry of regional outfits has turned the polls into a triangular battle. These seats are concentrated in 9 states.
If perceptions on the ground are to be believed, the incumbent BJP, which is widely speculated to return to power, will only benefit if its opponents split votes among each other. In a direct duel, the results might look very different for the saffron party.
The 9 states where the battle for 261 parliamentary seats, out of a total of 543, is being fought are Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Jammu and Kashmir, Tamil Nadu and Punjab.
94 of these seats will go to the polls on May 7, Tuesday.
UP: The Key Battleground
BJP has been winning the bulk of its seats from the central Indian state of UP, which is not only the most populous, but also politically vibrant. It sends a maximum of 80 members to Parliament. The BJP had grabbed 73 and 62 seats respectively in the 2014 and 2019 elections in the state. The constituencies of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi are in UP – Varanasi and Rae Bareli (formerly Amethi). It also has the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, which has been painstakingly turned into a mascot of the BJP’s victory planks for this election. The BJP’s second star leader after PM Modi, the saffron-clad Yogi Adityanath, is chief minister of the state.
However, in many places, Muslims were also appreciative of BJP leaders and the rollout of successful welfare schemes sans any discrimination. “BJP leaders have visited our houses. The benefits of health schemes and housing projects for the poor have helped all, with little discrimination,” a villager on the Moradabad to Delhi road exclaimed.
Despite the state being the castle of its ideology and its campaign battery hailing from here, the BJP is anxious as the opposition has struck an alliance – the Samajwadi Party of Akhilesh Yadav and Congress. Muslims seem to have decided to vote en masse for the SP-Congress alliance. They have even refused to react to the communal overtones of the BJP leadership, which has now resorted to using time-tested tactics to polarize the electorate along religious lines.
The BJP is in fact putting its bets on the hopes of the division of Muslim, Dalit and OBC (other backward caste) votes among the alliance, and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, which has fielded 20 Muslims, the maximum by any party in India. Observers suggest this is a ploy to divide votes, to the favor of the BJP. But reporters on the ground deny that Muslims are ready to be hoodwinked by the BSP. “There seems to be a total solidarity for the SP-Congress combine among the community. Even the Yadavs, who had drifted towards BJP in recent elections have woken up to vote for their original leadership,” a reporter told The Friday Times.
Meanwhile, another reporter said that BSP candidates have become a nuisance for BJP candidates in several constituencies. “Apart from Muslims, BSP has fielded Thakurs, Brahmins, Jats and others. Some of them are putting up a strong fight, and it means they will eat into BJP’s upper caste votes,” she said.
This correspondent also travelled to some West UP constituencies like Ghaziabad, Noida, Amroha, Sambhal, Moradabad and Rampur, and based on conversations with a sizeable number of Muslims, found that the community rose above even petty divisions on a local level and is unanimous in deciding to vote for a single candidate.
However, in many places, Muslims were also appreciative of BJP leaders and the rollout of successful welfare schemes sans any discrimination. “BJP leaders have visited our houses. The benefits of health schemes and housing projects for the poor have helped all, with little discrimination,” a villager on the Moradabad to Delhi road exclaimed.
Triangular Contest in West Bengal
Mamata Banerjee has been a trenchant critic of the Modi government. She has even locked horns with the Centre’s appointed governors for her state. Her run-ins with former governor and now Vice-President of India, Jagdeep Dhankhar, used to be headlines in daily news. Her key lieutenants, including her nephew and likely successor Abhishek Banerjee have been framed by the central agency Enforcement Directorate on serious graft charges. Many of her senior party leaders are languishing in jail. Her star Member of Parliament Mahua Moitra was the deftest detractor of the Modi government in and outside the House. Her delectably accentuated diatribes would floor even members of the ruling party. She was stripped of her membership, after allegations that she breached some parliamentary privileges and leaked her official email identity and password to someone unauthorized in return for pecuniary benefits.
All of this however, did not daunt Mamata and her Trinamool Congress Party – a breakaway faction of the Congress party. The TMC nevertheless demurred from joining the opposition’s INDIA bloc. It was necessitated, as some political pundits surmise, due to the party’s “dubious funding” through electoral bonds. It has been found to be the second largest recipient of funding after the BJP.
Mamata Banerjee has been a trenchant critic of the Modi government. She has even locked horns with the Centre’s appointed governors for her state.
So, this time there is no alliance of any party in West Bengal. The TMC, BJP, Congress and leftist parties are all by themselves in the electoral arena. TMC is contesting alone on all 42 seats, while BJP has also fielded candidates on all the seats. The Congress and the Left have not formally formed an alliance, but are not fielding candidates against each other. In this way, the Congress and the Left are fighting the elections with a mutual understanding with each other. The candidates of BJP, TMC and Congress-left are in the fray for 42 Lok Sabha seats of the state. Apart from this, Indian Secular Front chief Abbas Siddiqui has also fielded candidates on 30 seats, due to which there is competition between four parties on many seats, but on most of the seats, the competition is between the BJP and TMC.
Muslims make up a mammoth 28% of the electorate. Their voting patterns will decide the results of nearly 18 seats. The majority of the community is said to be in the favor of the TMC and individual candidates fielded by the Congress-left alliance.
UDF-LDF-BJP in Kerala
The dynamics of India’s most educated state India – Kerala – are very strange. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) – the parent outfit of BJP – has the highest number of its sakhas (branches) in Kerala. Still, BJP, and even its earlier avatar Jan Sangh, has failed to gain ground here. Moreover, it is the Communists, the staunchest opponent of the Sangh, that have flourished as the alternative to Congress. The politics of the state revolves around two blocs – the Congress-led United Democratic Front and Communists-led Left Democratic Front.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is also an MP from the state and is again contesting from the Muslim-dominated Wayanad seat.
As part of its “South Plan”, the BJP has entered the fray with its full might and seeks to breach the jinx and the edifice of left-Congress hegemony. PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah toured the state and charged up the state cadre.
Voting for 20 seats of Kerala was held on April 26, and now these seats are an important stat for post-poll predictions.
Most pollsters are estimating that BJP may win one seat and it is Congress that may strike a jackpot by grabbing anywhere from 15 to 18 seats.
The Fight Along The Andhra Pradesh Coast
There is a triangular contest for a total of 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh. This time, the Telugu Desam Party of former CM Chandrababu Naidu, BJP and Pawan Kalyan’s party have entered the election field together under the banner of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Overall, there will be a triangular contest among NDA, YSR Congress of CM Jagan Mohan Reddy and Congress. But reports from the ground suggest that the main fight is between NDA and YSR. YSR is a split faction of Congress, and is led by the young and charismatic Jagan Mohan Reddy. However, since Jagan’s sister Y.S. Sharmila is heading Congress and this, some analysts say, may work for the Grand Old Party.
Congress-BJP-BJD in Odisha
Odisha is called the temple state of India. It is also known for the people’s love for hockey, the national sport of India. It is ruled by the foreign-educated Naveen Patnaik. Instead of introducing reforms, Naveen has chosen to compete with BJP over the claim of the biggest religious leader of the state, if not the country. He provides assistance to temples from state coffers. His government is reviving many ancient temple complexes. Chanting ‘Jai Jagannath’ has almost been made mandatory at government functions. Confident that he could grab all 21 seats from the state, Naveen has not joined either the BJP or Congress alliances despite being wooed by both.
The BJD-BJP battle will also be decisive for the future of regional parties in India. If BJD loses ground to BJP, it will signal a watershed, as a national party with a feeble following in the state will defeat a well-entrenched state party.
Now, Naveen’s Biju Janata Dal – a breakaway faction of erstwhile Janata Dal whose prominent leader was his father Biju Patnaik – will be in a direct fight with the BJP. Congress, according to observers, has been decaying in the state, and hardly stands any chance in the competition. BJP on the other hand has sought to cultivate voters among religious followers. The party claims it is the exclusive custodian of India’s civilisational religion – Hinduism – and thus it is best suited to take the reins of the government.
The BJD-BJP battle will also be decisive for the future of regional parties in India. If BJD loses ground to BJP, it will signal a watershed, as a national party with a feeble following in the state will defeat a well-entrenched state party.
Another Triangular Fight in Telangana-Tamil Nadu
There are a total of 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana. The election fight here is mainly between the BRS, Congress and BJP. BRS is headed by former CM K Chandrashekhar Rao, who was at the forefront of stitching together an anti-BJP alliance by the end of 2022, but his overtures were marred by his defeat in the state elections. He tried to strike a deal with both Congress and BJP, and nothing worked out. His party is now locked in a triangular battle with the BJP and Congress. While BJP has tried to whip up communal frenzy to garner devoted voters’ confidence, BRS and Congress are walking the middle path of adjusting all sections. Observers say that Congress, which is also heading the state government, is on a strong wicket and will scalp the maximum number of seats.
Telangana’s state capital is Hyderabad, from where Asaduddin Owaisi, India’s most prominent Muslim politician, is contesting to hold onto the sole seat he has been winning for the past several elections. Observers say he will again have an easy going.
In Jammu and Kashmir, which is holding its first elections after the abrogation of Article 370, the contest is very clear. While the BJP will snatch two Jammu seats, three Kashmir seats are up for grabs by the National Conference, Congress and PDP.
Tamil Nadu is another Indian state with a large population. It has 39 seats in the Lok Sabha. Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a party devoted to the struggle of oppressed castes against Brahmanical hierarchy, is in power in the state. Congress has formed an alliance with DMK. On the other hand, BJP and its partner All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), another prominent state outfit and principal opponent of DMK, have parted ways and are contesting solo. Thus, the Congress-DMK combine is a clear favorite to bag almost all the seats.
Punjab-Jammu & Kashmir
There are a total of 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab. The main contest in the state is between Congress, BJP, Aam Aadmi Party and Akali Dal. There is no alliance of any party in Punjab; all of them are contesting the elections alone, which has made the election very interesting. Punjab has also been the centre of incendiary issues in the recent past. While the Khalistani issue continues to crop up with some new angle every day, the farmer agitation over reforms brought about by the Modi government is also a searing cause of distress in the state.
While Congress, AAP and Akalis are shepherding along the local sentiments, BJP has decided to plough its cart loaded with national issues. Observers are confused about which party will win the hearts and minds of Punjab. All contestants lay an equal claim, with a slight disadvantage to the BJP.
In 2019, BJP secured 303 seats alone. It almost wiped out Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Assam, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, by winning 278 out of a possible 320 seats in these states.
In Jammu and Kashmir, which is holding its first elections after the abrogation of Article 370, the contest is very clear. While BJP will snatch two Jammu seats, three Kashmir seats are up for grabs by the National Conference, Congress and PDP.
The Arithmetic of the March to Majority
A total of 351 Lok Sabha seats are in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Kerala, and are all considered to be decisive in deciding which alliance will inch closer to the majority.
Pundits usually say that whichever party is successful in winning five of these key states, can easily lap up nearly 200 seats. After this, it becomes rather easy to reach the majority figure of 272. This mathematics however, failed spectacularly in 2014.
Six states are changing this arithmetic: Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, Karnataka, Jharkhand and Odisha. There is a sharp competition to win as many of the 193 seats in these states.
Besides this, the 261 seats in the 9 states discussed above will decide the next government of India. Here, BJP, the Congress and regional satraps are either supporting one another, or they are mounting stiff rivalries.
In 2019, BJP secured 303 seats alone. It almost wiped out Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Assam, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, by winning 278 out of a possible 320 seats in these states, but it struggled in the remaining states. It only managed to get 25 seats elsewhere.
This time, the challenge seems to be more daunting for BJP.