The first elections held in the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir since New Delhi revoked five years ago Article 370 - which granted the region a special status - saw a large turnout while its results were predictable. Jammu went to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Kashmir to the National Conference (NC). Other parties and independents also registered their vibrant presence, even though with scattered success. The real success of this election was that they actually took place, and that too without any modicum of serious violence and enfranchisement of all and sundry.
The BJP, which rules in the centre under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has a lot of credit to claim. Conducting elections after the revocation of Article 370 and annulling the special status of Jammu and Kashmir is the biggest triumph of the Modi government in the region. Second, the BJP has emerged as a formidable opposition in the valley with 29 seats and since all these seats are from the Hindu-majority Jammu region; the party will exploit communal sentiments for use elsewhere in India.
One thing that the polls have cemented is that certain dynamics of Kashmir have changed forever. Though some Kashmiri leaders bragged in their poll campaigns to have pushed for the reversal of New Delhi’s abrogation of Article 370, it will not be rolled back. Even protests can’t be organised on this issue as the centre will exercise its special powers to quell any dissent.
The restoration of full statehood of Jammu and Kashmir is surely on the cards, and it can be announced within months.
Overall, the mandate in Jammu and Kashmir is for development, as independents and perceived separatists have been decimated. The majority of them even lost their deposits, and the people have solidly backed the NC-Congress combine to lead them into the future.
The new government in Jammu and Kashmir will be like a houseboat floating on the scenic Dal Lake. It will depend on the centre to navigate and withstand any mishap. In some way, Jammu and Kashmir will still be run by New Delhi, just as Pakistan is run by its military-civil establishment.
Plus, the state will be headed by Kashmir’s oldest political family, the Abdullahs, who have made a spectacular comeback after suffering a parliamentary setback when its CM-designate Omar Abdullah was trounced by Sheikh Rashid, aka Engineer Rashid, a poster boy of Kashmiri resistance to Indian rule.
The Valley saw independent separatist Sheikh Rashid, also known as Engineer Rashid, defeating former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister and National Conference chief Omar Abdullah. What made the victory even more stark was that Rashid won the polls from jail
Thus, within months, the contours in Jammu and Kashmir have changed, and glimpses of the future for the state and its connection to politics in mainland India lie in various clues hidden in the happenings of these past months.
Post-370 electoral calculus
Before the post-370 assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, an eerie silence prevailed in the Valley. Leaders of all hues – pro-democracy and separatists – were in jail. Only the insurgents intermittently pestered this pyrrhic peace. Then, the government in New Delhi began to release political leaders, one by one, and also silently carved the constituencies of the Union Territory anew through an exercise called delimitation.
New segments paved the way for power parity between the Kashmir Valley and Jammu, allocating them 47 and 43 seats, respectively. Six seats were added to the Jammu division. The new arrangement was aimed at tilting the pendulum favouring the Hindu-majority Jammu, where the BJP of PM Modi has been consolidating its base.
The Valley was left to all existing claimants – mainstreamers like the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) of the Abdullahs, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) of the Muftis and separatists (if they exist in their exclusive form at all), including independents backed by proscribed outfits like the Jamaat-e-Islami.
Before the assembly polls, Jammu and Kashmir witnessed parliamentary polls in June 2024. These polls made clear how electoral choices will be made in the UT. The BJP limited itself to Jammu and wrested both the parliamentary seats: Jammu and Udhampur. The Valley saw independent separatist Sheikh Rashid, also known as Engineer Rashid, defeating former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister and National Conference chief Omar Abdullah. What made the victory even more stark was that Rashid won the polls from jail. The NC won the remaining two seats.
Former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Mehbooba Mufti's PDP was pulverised. Rahul Gandhi's Congress party failed to make any mark despite a campaign blitzkrieg led by Gandhi himself. In these parliamentary polls, the NC won around 36 assembly segments in the Valley, while the BJP secured 29 such segments, all in Jammu. The Congress was a leading party in seven segments. Independents held sway on a similar number of segments.
Abdullahs and Muftis maintained that as long as the BJP remained in power, it was useless to expect the restoration of Article 370, so it was time to focus on other pressing issues of the state
Jammu and Kashmir was thus poised to see a contest in the assembly elections between NC and BJP, with interruptions from independents and the Congress.
When the results of the three-phase assembly polls were announced on October 8, it was on the predicted lines. In fact, both the BJP and NC performed better than expected. The NC won 42 seats in the Valley. The BJP won exactly 29 seats, improving its vote share in Jammu. The Congress managed to bag six seats. The PDP was reduced to three seats, while the independents and other smaller parties won sparingly on some seats.
But was the election only about this electoral calculus? What all was at stake, and how do things stand to pan out for Kashmiris in the future? Can they reverse reading down Article 370 of the Indian Constitution to reclaim special status for their state once the new assembly convenes? Does Jammu and the Kashmir Valley division effectively create two states within a state? All these questions reverberated when Kashmiri leaders wooed their constituents during their poll campaigns, and Kashmiris await their answers as a government of their own is going to take charge.
Article 370: The restoration riddle
On August 5, 2019, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government unexpectedly announced the revocation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. The article granted Jammu and Kashmir a special status and a degree of autonomy. When the move was pushed through and the subsequent legal challenge in the Indian Supreme Court in December 2023 failed, it was clear that the decision would never be reversed.
The revocation of Article 370 means that the Indian Constitution will now be applied to Jammu and Kashmir in toto, opening its properties to sale and purchase for non-residents of the territory, especially citizens of India who were hitherto barred from such privilege. It also opens state lands and other assets for corporate exploits.
Mainstream Kashmiri politicians like the Abdullahs and Muftis had promised that they would bat for the restoration of Article 370 in 2019. However, as time passed and elections approached, only separatists or right-wing Kashmiri leaders echoed this demand. For them, this election was a referendum on the restoration of Article 370, but mainstream politicians only zeroed in on the restoration of full statehood.
Abdullahs and Muftis maintained that as long as the BJP remained in power, it was useless to expect the restoration of Article 370, so it was time to focus on other pressing issues of the state.
Omar Abdullah will still need to seek approval from the federally appointed Lieutenant Governor when making major decisions
In his first interview after winning elections, Omar Abdullah, in fact, said that his government would work in tandem with the BJP government in the centre, as this is “the only course to solve issues of J&K”.
“I will make every effort to ensure that the incoming government works for smooth relations both with the Lieutenant Governor and the Union government,” he told India Today.
Abdullah’s alliance partner, Congress - the party that would be a pivot in any future non-BJP government in Delhi, has maintained total silence on the issue. In fact, its leadership claims credit for the continuous erosion of Article 370 and keeping it only in a redundant form.
Separatists like Engineer Rashid, however, blame politicians like the Abdullahs and Muftis for backtracking and backstabbing on Article 370. But their drubbing in the elections has sunk this gung-ho narrative.
Soon after polling ended, an exultant PM Modi proclaimed in a message on the social media site 'X' (formerly known as Twitter): “Many people claimed that the Jammu and Kashmir would burn if Article 370 was abrogated. However, it didn’t burn, it blossomed.”
Controlling from Delhi
The new Jammu and Kashmir assembly will have the power to make and amend regional laws, debate local issues and approve decisions for the territory, particularly in education and culture. However, Omar Abdullah will still need to seek approval from the federally appointed Lieutenant Governor when making major decisions.
Even if many Kashmiris would like to prevent the BJP from extending its tentacles into the region, the party still maintains some control from New Delhi.
The BJP had expanded, perhaps in anticipation of such an electoral result, the Lieutenant Governor's powers over public order and policing in the region. The Lieutenant Governor will also have control over the regional anti-corruption bureau and the Directorate of Public Prosecutions - tools to effectively stifle the regional government and quell any large-scale protests.
Around 64% of people came out to vote despite the threats of violent subversion. While the people and politicians in Kashmir deemed it as evidence of the public's desire to take back charge of the state, the BJP, however, sees it as an emblem of the region returning to normalcy
Omar Abdullah’s party has promised to work towards repealing the draconian Public Safety Act, which allows for the detention of people for up to two years without charge, and seeking amnesty for prisoners. Hundreds of alleged separatists are languishing behind bars under the PSA and similar heavy-handed security laws. However, if Omar needs any concession for them, he will have to secure the “go-ahead” from the Lieutenant Governor and the Home Ministry that, in return, will seek an “overhaul” of anti-government leaders on the lines of reforms adopted by student-political activist Shehla Rashid and bureaucrat Shah Faesal.
Normalcy, a victory for BJP
Of the many positives that can be drawn from the Jammu and Kashmir elections, the high turnout was the most significant. Around 64% of people came out to vote despite the threats of violent subversion. While the people and politicians in Kashmir deemed it as evidence of the public's desire to take back charge of the state, the BJP, however, sees it as an emblem of the region returning to normalcy. The party is thus projecting the conduct of elections with minimum insurgency as evidence of its successful management in Kashmir in the post-370 era.
When the BJP had abrogated Article 370, its publicity machinery had advertised it as a means of opening Kashmir to mainland India, where Kashmiri brides would soon be brought even by grooms from mofussil towns. Similar propaganda may soon erupt in the media again as Jharkhand and Maharashtra are slated for polls in the coming weeks.
Jammu and beyond: The road ahead for BJP
In Hindu-majority Jammu, the BJP, even in its past Jan Sangh avatar, had focused on communalism for sustenance. Ever since militancy broke out in Kashmir in the late 1980s, the party took up persecution of Kashmiri Pandits and Islamisation of the Valley as chief planks for mobilising support. In almost all elections since then, the party has kept its fight limited to Jammu, solely focusing on soliciting the Hindu votes. In some pockets, it also managed to earn Muslim votes owing to the efforts of its Muslim leadership.
In the run-up to the September-October Assembly polls, Jammu was surprisingly said to be seething with anger against the BJP because of inflation, unemployment and even trimming the special trade and business rights for locals in the wake of Article 370 revocation.
Then, mysteriously, the region witnessed a series of militant attacks, claiming many lives, including those of several security personnel. Even some Hindu pilgrims heading to the iconic Amarnath shrine were killed in June.
Even though cross-border attacks stopped as mysteriously as they took place, Pakistan somehow entered BJP’s campaign and didn’t go away until the elections were over.
BJP resorts to polarisation wherever its agency is required. Its leadership projects Kashmir's leadership as proxies of Pakistan and derides them to the hilt. At the same time, it also claims credit for normalising Kashmir and making it an integral part of India in the actual sense
The rhetoric used by PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah began to work, and sentiments shifted towards the BJP. The centre also released funds from a post-370 special package worth Rs280 billion, with the biggest chunk going to Jammu. Many future businesses were also announced to be set up in Jammu as the Valley was still not safe enough for such enterprises.
The Congress has been BJP’s principal opponent in Jammu. Since the Congress found itself iffy on several sensitive issues such as Article 30 and 370, coming down heavily on the Kashmiri separatists, a wave built up in BJP’s favour.
The BJP-generated polarisation peaked so much that no Hindu candidate of Congress could win. All six of its successful candidates are Muslims who won from Muslim-dominated constituencies.
The Jammu model is a tried and tested strategy of the BJP. The party resorts to polarisation wherever its agency is required. Its leadership projects Kashmir's leadership as proxies of Pakistan and derides them to the hilt. At the same time, it also claims credit for normalising Kashmir and making it an integral part of India in the actual sense.
This is an integral element of BJP’s electoral mechanics, and it works for the party.
Emboldened by the results of Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana, the BJP will now try the same formula in the upcoming Jharkhand and Maharashtra elections. Kashmir will undoubtedly be a proud part of its narrative.