India and Saudi Arabia signed five agreements spanning defence, energy and trade. In their joint statement King Salman and PM Modi condemned terrorism and rejected attempts “to link this universal phenomenon to any particular race, religion or culture”.
Modi gave King Salman a gold-plated replica of a Kerala mosque, while the Saudi King awarded the Indian leader the kingdom’s highest civilian award: King Abdulaziz Sash.
The Indian PM built on the diplomatic groundwork laid by the Riyadh Declaration, signed by the then Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and then Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in 2010 – the last time an Indian premier visited Riyadh. The military deal is an extension of the defence cooperation agreement signed by King Salman on his trip to India in 2014, as the Saudi Defence Minister.
The centre of Modi’s visit however was India’s energy needs, with Saudi Arabia being its chief crude oil supplier, providing 1.12 million barrels a day. Modi also focused on the large Indian diaspora in the kingdom, including ‘the treatment of Indian workers in the country’.
China has blocked India's move to ban the Jaish-e-Muhammad chief
For Pakistan Modi’s Riyadh visit generated cause for apprehension.
“Narendra Modi’s basic policy is to destablise Pakistan and even dismember it if possible,” says former Senator (who was chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs) and diplomat Akram Zaki. “Furthermore, he wants to isolate Pakistan from all of its traditional allies.”
Zaki says Modi’s visit to UAE, his relations with Iran, and his speech in Bangladesh, all point towards this policy. “He has even spoken against Pakistan in China. This is the implementation of the same policy to create distance between Pakistan and its friends,” Zaki says. “Modi’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has even expressed that India needs to create distance between Pakistan and its allied states. This was before Modi’s Saudi trip.”
Senior Assistant Editor at Times of India, Aarti Tikoo Singh, says Modi’s foreign policy is much more complex and sophisticated than domestic politics. “He is emerging as a leader on the same lines as Indira Gandhi. He is going out and seeking relationships in the world with a much more confidence and finesse than he employs domestically,” she says.
Singh believes Modi trying to strengthen India’s bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia, the traditional ally of Pakistan, will certainly make Pakistan ‘very anxious’. “India under Modi, it seems, is getting closer to Pakistan’s ‘natural’ allies, and in a way isolating Pakistan on various fronts. Even though India is engaging Pakistan too, I am not sure how Pakistani Army and the ISI will see Delhi’s new dynamic with Riyadh.”
A senior Pakistani diplomat wishing anonymity says India’s agreements with Saudi Arabia are a big diplomatic victory. “To sign military agreements with Saudi Arabia at a time when Pakistan is spearheading the military drive of Riyadh’s 34-nation counter-terrorism coalition is a result of progressive foreign policy on New Delhi’s part,” he says. “Whether it’s designed to isolate Pakistan, or if that’s a corollary, is debatable. But it’s a clear win-win for India.”
Days before Modi’s visit to Riyadh Saudi Arabia – along with US – imposed joint sanctions targeting Lashkar-e-Taiba. The move came at a time when China is blocking India’s move to ban Jaish-e-Muhammad Chief Masood Azhar.
Aarti Tikoo Singh believes that while Pakistan seems to be focusing on China, it seems that India is trying to exploit the changing equation between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. “India is trying to tap the space that was occupied by the US in Saudi relations. Riyadh is also reconfiguring its relations in the post-OPEC era,” she says. “Shale Oil and clean energy is driving all these new equations and I think Modi has taken into account that India can benefit from it. The fact that India also has good relations with Iran and is competing with China by investing in the port of Chabahar, helps Modi hugely.”
Singh believes Saudi Arabia is going to face enormous challenges as the West moves to clean energy and Shale oil. “In that scenario, Riyadh needs partners other than the West. And I think India given a huge economy is something that Saudis would like to benefit from.”
She does not think India can help the kingdom in its war against ISIS. “But on the economic front, India seems to be a partner that Saudi Arabia can’t afford to lose.”
The senior Pakistani diplomat says it will be intriguing to see if India can balance its relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia better than Pakistan has managed to over the past few decades.
“India will not ruin its relations with Iran or for that matter any traditional ally in the Middle East,” says Singh. “Historically, India has maintained good relations with the Muslim world except for Pakistan. I don’t think India will make any change in its traditional foreign policy vis-a-vis the Muslim world. What we will most likely see is improvement in relations with the countries which are both friendly and antagonistic towards Pakistan. Modi will surely do a balancing act to maintain India’s relations with Iran.”
The Pakistani diplomat believes Islamabad would have to revisit its foreign policy with regards to the Middle East and stop over-relying on China. “I believe mediating between Riyadh and Tehran following their recent bust up was a very positive step from Islamabad,” he says. “Pakistan should play a positive role in relations between Muslim countries, without ever letting ideological inclinations dictate its foreign policy. I think New Delhi drawing closer to Riyadh is a classic example of overcoming ideological barriers, to cater to self-interests.”