The Indian Minister of Defence, Rajnath Singh, has conceded to the investigative report published in The Guardian titled “Indian government ordered killings in Pakistan, intelligence officials claim,” on the 4th of April 2024. Earlier, India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, had vehemently denied this report, dismissing it as ‘false and malicious.’
Who holds the truth? Why do the two prominent cabinet ministers find themselves completely at odds? Is it a matter of internal politics, where Singh seeks to undermine and embarrass Jaishankar? These are questions perhaps best left for the Indians to worry about. However, what concerns Pakistan in the findings from this article, along with the subsequent statements and rhetoric of Indian ministers, takes on a different tone.
The article appears to be influenced by information provided by Pakistan’s intelligence agencies, as well as partially by their Indian counterparts. How does Pakistan stand to gain from a narrative that exposes its own security vulnerabilities? If Pakistan indeed possessed clear intelligence regarding these assassinations on its soil, one would expect preventative measures to have been taken, rather than leaking such information to a foreign publication.
From Pakistan's perspective, this narrative only serves to portray it as feeble and ineffectual.
If the intent is to tarnish India's international reputation, then modern geopolitics suggests that such an ambition holds minimal chance of success; achieving diplomatic, economic, and political objectives is paramount – a principle underscored by the actions of Israel and global responses.
From Pakistan's perspective, this narrative only serves to portray it as feeble and ineffectual. Feeble, because it failed to thwart Indian operatives conducting missions within its borders. Ineffectual, because instead of decisive action, Pakistan opts to publicise the matter internationally.
What benefits does India derive from this narrative?
For India, this narrative is advantageous on multiple fronts. It aligns with its aspirations of regional dominance, a sentiment echoed by Singh in a recent television interview, where he reiterates Prime Minister Modi’s rhetoric of asserting influence within Pakistani territories – a stance that resonates well with Modi's BJP as they gear up for the upcoming elections in June 2024.
Let's not overlook the statement made by a prominent BJP figure and former Governor of Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir, Satya Pal Malik, in an interview eight months ago. Malik suggested that Modi is poised to lose the forthcoming elections in June 2024, along with the leadership of the party. Hence, the notion of leveraging The Guardian report and the subsequent self-assuredness expressed by Modi's second-in-command, Rajnath Singh, for electoral advantage appears compelling.
But there is more to it.
During a live discussion on my YouTube show 'Political Zone', I posed this question to my panellists – Dr. Hasnain Javed, Javed Farooqi, and Asif Ali Bhatti – is this merely an election ploy or does it signify a deeper policy stance? All three panellists concurred that it is indeed a matter of policy. India seeks to convey a clear message, particularly to Pakistan, that it holds the reins of power in the region and will act as it sees fit, regardless of international laws and diplomatic conventions.
India's posture is evidently aggressive.
A day prior, Indian journalist Rohit Sharma labelled The Guardian as anti-India, in line with the apparent stance of the British government, ostensibly displeased with India's engagement in Russian oil trade. However, India remains undeterred by British sentiments, confident in its ability to pursue what it deems beneficial.
Nevertheless, the narrative supported by Sharma has shifted following Rajnath Singh's acknowledgment of the allegations that Indian operatives were responsible for the deaths of 20 individuals on Pakistani soil. Thus, contrary to Sharma's assertion, it so appears now that the article was published in cooperation between the Indian intelligence agency RAW and the British agency MI6.
Let us attempt to connect the dots to gain a clearer picture.
It becomes evident that contrary to Sharma's assertion regarding The Guardian, and hence the purported anti-India sentiments of the British government, the article appears to be a meticulously orchestrated collaboration between MI6 and RAW.
Economist Dr. Shahid Hassan Siddiqui has highlighted that the Great Game is tightening its grip around Pakistan. He referred to the 24th IMF program and the profound impact IMF demands have had on Pakistan's economy in recent years. For Pakistan, the dynamics shifted when it sought to distance itself from the US sphere of influence following the initiation of the CPEC program with China in 2014, and later the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Afterwards, efforts to engage with Russia for energy resources in 2022 altered the landscape further. This was followed by significant political upheaval within Pakistan.
Against this backdrop, the statement made by the US Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of South And Central Asian Affairs, Donald Lu, before the Congressional Committee on Foreign Affairs, and the subsequent letter from President Joe Biden to Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shahbaz Sharif, gained considerable attention. Shortly thereafter, The Guardian published the article under discussion. These are notable events that have unfolded within a condensed timeframe. While some may appear disparate, they ultimately converge, underscoring Dr. Siddiqui's apprehensions regarding the encroaching snare of the so-called Great Game upon Pakistan.
It becomes evident that contrary to Sharma's assertion regarding The Guardian, and hence the purported anti-India sentiments of the British government, the article appears to be a meticulously orchestrated collaboration between MI6 and RAW. This serves to provide political leverage for Narendra Modi's election campaign and aligns with India's strategic objectives. Concurrently, the British government appears to be advancing the US agenda of influencing Pakistan's policies to align with its own, thereby positioning Pakistan as an active participant in Europe and the Middle East, potentially countering the interests of Russia and Iran. To facilitate this shift, Pakistan would need to completely sever ties with China and discard the CPEC program altogether.
Given this development, Pakistan finds itself treading a precarious tightrope. The Pakistani establishment, wielding the reins of power, must negotiate this situation with utmost care. It is imperative that they assess their options diligently, particularly regarding political choices and appointments to key governmental roles. While the establishment appears preoccupied with managing internal politics and economics, a perilous geopolitical conundrum looms over Pakistan.