On November 29, 2023, the US Department of Justice filed an indictment against an Indian national for his alleged involvement in a plot to assassinate a US citizen with directives from an Indian government official. The indictment added that the government official had “many targets,” suggesting this was not an isolated incident. This development follows Canada’s allegations against the Indian government for its alleged involvement in the killing of a Canadian citizen. India rejected Canada’s allegations while “expressing concern” after the Department of Justice’s indictment.
India’s purported target-killing campaign, clandestine as it may be, could be encouraged by its stated aspirations to become the region’s net security provider. It has unilaterally targeted individuals affiliated with regional militant groups, such as the Khalistan Movement, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and ISK-P. The United States’ support of India’s aspiration to become a regional net security, as stated in the Indo-Pacific framework (2022), has likely bolstered India’s resolve to unilaterally act on its regional threat perceptions.
In recent years, the Indian government has felt emboldened to pursue its foreign policy interests without significant fear of pushback due to its improved domestic economic, political, and diplomatic capacities. India’s economic growth, technological expansion, and political stability have bolstered its government’s capacity to implement controversial policies without substantial domestic opposition. Internationally, India’s foreign policy alignment with the United States to counteract China will likely insulate India’s long-term interests from short-term ruptures, such as the recent allegations.
As capitals around the world grapple with these allegations, it is important to note that the frequency of individuals wanted by India found dead under mysterious circumstances has been higher in Pakistan than anywhere in the world. Since the explosion outside the banned Jamat-ud-Dawa chief’s Lahore residence in 2021, at least eleven militants wanted by India have been eliminated in Pakistan through alleged extrajudicial killings. Many of these attacks in Pakistan share indications of premeditated target killings, with unidentified gunmen killing their targets near their residences and often in a nearby mosque. Reports suggest that the alleged guns are former members of Pakistani law enforcement agencies with access to training and intelligence.
According to research assessments over the past two years, no country has documented as many murders of individuals of interest to India on its soil as Pakistan, including the United States and Canada. If the allegations are true, India’s alleged target-killing programme is likely to be primarily Pakistan-focused. While Pakistan accused India of being behind the Johar Town bombing in 2021, the state has not notably or publicly attributed India’s involvement in the other assassinations, especially in 2023.
Consumed with burgeoning domestic fault lines, policymakers have detracted from effectively engaging their international counterparts about the potential impact of India’s purported assassination campaign in Pakistan. A more domestically assured Pakistan can provide valuable input and help shape the ongoing debate about the costs of India's rise as a regional hegemon
Attribution without evidence undoubtedly damages state credibility and should be avoided until investigations conclude. However, Pakistan’s reluctance to outline the nature or jurisdictional scope of its investigations into these attacks is surprising. The state has historically highlighted numerous Indian infringements on Pakistan’s sovereignty, often at times when India faced little to no international pressure about their regional clandestine activities.
There are three possible explanations behind Pakistan’s reticence. First, and least likely, Pakistan may have calculated that highlighting the presence of militants on its soil could wittingly or unwittingly backfire into familiar allegations of providing safe havens for regional militancy. This is made salient by Pakistan’s arduous efforts to exit the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list in October 2022. Policymakers may be circumspect because of the fear of returning to the grey list in the next review in 2025-26, especially amidst ongoing macroeconomic instability.
Second, Pakistan may have assessed that the importance of continuing the February 2021 ceasefire along the Line of Control supersedes the salience of publicly responding to target killings. The ceasefire allowed Pakistan to curtail the fallout of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan while enabling India to address ongoing China-India border tensions. Inadvertently providing oxygen to unfounded allegations could lead to intra-group calls for retaliation that could threaten India and Pakistan’s ongoing cold peace.
Third, and most likely, India’s alleged campaign came at an inopportune domestic moment. Pakistan may have concluded that opening an external front against India was not feasible while contending with gaping domestic fault lines. Amidst escalating militancy in the country, policymakers may feel further unease in revealing the state’s inability to protect the lives of its citizens.
As the adage goes, effective foreign policy begins at home. In the past two years, almost all policy bandwidth has been consumed domestically by uncertain political timelines, minimising prospects of default, and circumnavigating the lack of policy continuity between three governments in two years. It remains to be seen whether the allegations of the United States or Canada will be concretely proven. One wonders, however, whether even proven allegations will impact India’s alleged operations in Pakistan. Assuming the delta between India and Pakistan’s economic, political, and diplomatic capabilities will not dissipate soon, Pakistan will continue to navigate changing regional realities amidst relative global silence.
Consumed with burgeoning domestic fault lines, policymakers have detracted from effectively engaging their international counterparts about the potential impact of India’s purported assassination campaign in Pakistan. A more domestically assured Pakistan can provide valuable input and help shape the ongoing debate about the costs of India's rise as a regional hegemon.