After MQM chief Altaf Hussain threw the latest spanner in the works – a ‘minus-one formula’ as it is referred to – a new debate has ensued in the members-only corners of the Parliament: is Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif indispensable?
Known for switching the boats in the past, the Muslim Leaguers are wondering whether the military establishment would suck the air from the sails. They are also apprehensive whether PTI Chairman Imran Khan has found another Gen Pasha to his advantage.
The kite-flyers even discussed the trajectory of having either Shahbaz Sharif or Chaudhry Nisar as the next prime minister. The rumors of an emerging forward bloc in the PML-Nawaz are also rife.
In the beginning, the ruling party dealt rather casually with PTI’s warnings of street agitation. It was the PML-N that allowed the snowball effect to begin in the first place. After all, history testifies that Nawaz Sharif has suffocated himself under his own weight more than once.
[quote]Imran Khan had once said Sheikh Rashid was not even qualified to become his peon[/quote]
Apparently, the Imran-phobia brought out three types of leaders from within the PML-N – the hawks, the doves and the hawk-dove mutants. The first category includes the likes of Khawaja Saad Rafique, Abid Sher Ali, Rana Mashood and Rana Sanaullah. Avoiding media glare the doves are rare to find. Raja Zafarul Haq and Governor Punjab Chaudhry Sarwar are two of the softies.
But when water touched the danger level, the third category emerged, having the beak of a dove and the claws of a hawk. Half of their statements would offer an olive branch, while the other half would contain stark warnings. Chaudhry Nisar, Khawaja Asif, Pervez Rashid and several others are found in this category.
Whether the haphazardly choreographed strategy of dealing with the looming crisis with three tiers of knights will succeed or fail depends largely on the response and sustainability of the long march. If one calls it a game of poker, Imran Khan has reached the point of no return by going all-in.
Insiders say the interior minister has had at least two one-on-one meetings with Imran Khan. Both shared a bond being old Aitchisonians. It was Chaudhry Nisar who drove the prime minister to Imran Khan’s sprawling residence in Islamabad a few months ago. And it was Imran Khan who, while spitting venom against every PML-N leader, spared Chaudhry Nisar for good reasons.
Imran Khan, surrounded by his supporters
The interior minister has been assigned probably the most difficult task of his political life – to persuade his former schoolmate to pull back his troops. The PTI chairman does not seem to budge even an inch.
The interior minister has made several offers, insiders say. If the PTI chairman holds a protest rally but does not prolong it, the ruling party would in return accede to his demand of holding re-elections in “some of the constituencies” that the PTI had initially expressed doubts about. In that case, the PTI will withdraw from the demand of re-elections in all 272 constituencies.
“Khan never met Chaudhry Nisar. Some circles are spreading this misinformation,” says PTI information secretary Dr Shireen Mazari. “Why should he?” she asks. But she isn’t sure if they have spoken on telephone.
[quote]"Given his stance on Taliban, the army would not like to watch Imran Khan seizing power"[/quote]
When it comes to changing stance, hardly any politician can beat Imran Khan. The PTI chairman used to detest Sheikh Rashid Ahmed. He once said the so-called son of Rawalpindi was not even qualified to become his peon. Now the same Sheikh Rashid is his political mentor and “an amazing politician.”
Imran Khan publicly declared former chief minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi “the biggest dacoit” of Punjab. Now the same Pervaiz Elahi is his political ally.
The PTI chairman accused Altaf Hussain and his party of extortion and blackmailing. Later, he declared the same MQM “a natural ally of the PTI.”
Imran Khan’s party accused the People’s Party government of “selling Pakistan’s interests” over the Kerry-Lugar bill. The party blamed then foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi of getting a job for his son in Senator Kerry’s office. The same Mr Qureshi is now an integral part of the PTI.
Tahirul Qadri arrives in Lahore in June this year
In 2009, then Science and Technology minister Azam Swati leveled serious corruption allegations against then deputy chairman of Planning Commission, Sardar Assef Ahmed Ali. Later, both the gentlemen joined the PTI. The latter left the party when the PTI awarded a ticket in the last general elections to his political rival Khurshid Kasuri.
Even the PML-N’s track record is not ideal in this respect. The younger Sharif used to brag a lot. More than once he pledged to drag former President Asif Zardari and other People’s Party leaders on the streets because of their alleged corruption. The PML-N now seems to be catching at the Zardari straw.
A prominent religious political leader, known for his ties with the military establishment, claimed the armed forces were not backing Imran Khan’s long march as a matter of policy. “But don’t forget there’s an ISI within the ISI,” he added.
Given the stance of Imran Khan on Taliban militants, he said the armed forces would not like watch him seizing power anytime soon. However, he hinted at a tacit pat on the back of the PTI just to keep pressure on the PML-N government. “If Nawaz Sharif allows General Musharraf to go abroad and stops intervening in the India and Afghan policies, everything that is brewing will evaporate.”
The 14th August Long March is a big test case for Imran Khan as well. What if the march does not succeed, or fails to meet the desired objectives? Analysts believe it will inflict a massive blow on his political career.
The federal government has summoned the army in Islamabad in aid of civil administration under Article 245 of the Constitution. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar told the National Assembly that same article was invoked 24 times in the past. He claimed the army had been asked to help the civil administration deal with the threat of terrorism.
The opposition, including the People’s Party, criticized the decision. Even if it is not aimed at controlling the march, the timing of the measure is dangerous. Analysts are asking a fundamental question: who should be held responsible if, as a result of the long march, democracy is derailed once again?
