The man who succeeded Osama bin Laden as the head of al-Qaeda after he was killed in a US raid on his house back in May 2011, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was hiding in plain sight in a multi-storey building in an elite neighbourhood of Kabul, Afghanistan. The former Egyptian surgeon had joined the Muslim Brotherhood aged 14.
Like every devout Muslim, he would get up before dawn every day and offer the Fajr prayers. Afterwards, he would stand on the balcony of his house and breathe in the fresh air. Why had he abandoned caution to the wind?
He must have known that the US was going to come after him, like they had come after Osama. He must have known there was a reward of $25 million on his head. He must also have known that the Americans have their ways of tracking down suspects, using a combination of human and artificial intelligence.
Yet he would stand on the balcony. Was he suffering from a martyr complex? Or had he been lulled into a false sense of security since the Taliban were once again ruling Afghanistan.
On one fine Sunday morning, the last day of July, the Americans got him. They did not fly dozens of Navy Seals in stealth helicopters to knock down his door, find him, and shoot him. Instead, they fired two Hellfire R9X missiles at him. Unlike most missiles, the Hellfire does not carry a warhead. Instead, it flings open six sharp blades that shred the target into pieces. That’s why it’s sometimes called the Ninja missile.
When al-Zawahiri was killed, there was no explosion and thus no collateral damage. President Biden, slipping in the polls and badly needing a piece of good news before the November midterm elections, did not want a public outcry against the killing of innocent civilians.
His “gotcha” moment had arrived. Biden hailed the killing and said justice had been delivered, just as Obama, whom he had served as vice president for two terms, had hailed the killing of Osama bin Laden 11 years ago. In fact, for several weeks, in all his public speeches, Obama would always interject the phrase, “We got bin Laden.”
We can say that the US intelligence leading up to both attacks was superb. We can also say that the drone that was used to “deliver justice” was well designed.
The Taliban seem to have acknowledged the killing since they immediately blamed the US for violating the Doha agreement, which was signed in February 2020 during the Trump presidency. They conveniently overlooked the fact that they were the first ones to violate the agreement by giving the leader of al-Qaeda a safe haven right in the heart of the capital of Afghanistan.
Here’s the big question that will only be answered with the passage of time: Was the killing anything but a symbolic victory for the US?
Al-Qaeda was a diminished force after the Taliban were deposed from Kabul in December 2001 and Osama bin Laden took refuge in Pakistan. That point was driven home by Nelly Lahoud. A plethora of new terror groups, some of them consisting of former al-Qaeda fighters from Egypt and Syria, had spun off from al-Qaeda. The major splinter group, ISIS, was more violent in its ways and engaged in mass killings of Muslims, especially in Iraq. Osama bin Laden advised caution, reminding them the US was the target but they had given up on him. But his railings against them went unnoticed.
After the US took him out, there was no step up in terrorist activity. No group carried out retaliatory attacks against the US, not even al-Qaeda whose leader had been killed. Perhaps it had been rendered powerless or perhaps its strategy had changed.
But in Afghanistan, the Taliban were in the ascendent and slowly and steadily they pushed the US out of Afghanistan. How powerful is al-Qaeda today, eleven years after the demise of the charismatic leader? Will the new leader be able to resurrect the old al-Qaeda? Will the Taliban assist him? Only time will tell.
Did Pakistan play any role in facilitating the attack on al-Zawahiri? Did the drone take off from a base in the Gulf? If so, did it fly over Pakistan? Did Pakistan track it? Was it forewarned? If yes, did it know the target was al-Qaeda’s leader?
Or did the drone take off from a former US airbase in Kyrgyzstan? The US had not disclosed the flight path, simply saying that he was killed in an “over-the-horizon” operation at 6.18 am local time.
There is the immediate question: Will the Taliban reign in al-Qaeda and ask them to leave Afghanistan, or will it continue giving them a safe haven? Angered and humiliated by the killing of al-Zawahiri, would it go in the other direction and encourage them and equip them to hit back at the US?
Who will succeed al-Zawahiri? Saif al-Adl, the man often mentioned as his likely successor, is living under semi-house arrest in Iran, which became the home-in-exile for many al-Qaeda leaders after the death of bin Laden. Will Iran, which has no love lost with the US, release him? If not, will it let him run the terrorist network from his house, possibly inviting a drone attack?
And then there is the ultimate question for President Biden. Will this killing give him that much needed boost in the polls? His popularity is at an all-time low. Will the Democrats win or lose in November?
The news of al-Zawahiri’s successful killing failed to get much traction in the US media. It was largely ignored by the American public, whose minds are diverted by the economic slowdown, rampant inflation, a looming recession, and the ongoing fight against the pandemic whose virus continues to span new versions.
It’s also diverted by the bad news from abroad, having to do with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where the war is still being fought with no end in sight, and there are fears that the US could be pulled into what might turn into a nuclear war. And there is shock and dismay at China’s extremely hostile reaction to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
It’s good that the US took out al-Zawahiri. The attack was brilliantly carried out and books will be written about it. But will it make any difference whatsoever in the fight against terror? That remains to be seen.
Like every devout Muslim, he would get up before dawn every day and offer the Fajr prayers. Afterwards, he would stand on the balcony of his house and breathe in the fresh air. Why had he abandoned caution to the wind?
He must have known that the US was going to come after him, like they had come after Osama. He must have known there was a reward of $25 million on his head. He must also have known that the Americans have their ways of tracking down suspects, using a combination of human and artificial intelligence.
Yet he would stand on the balcony. Was he suffering from a martyr complex? Or had he been lulled into a false sense of security since the Taliban were once again ruling Afghanistan.
On one fine Sunday morning, the last day of July, the Americans got him. They did not fly dozens of Navy Seals in stealth helicopters to knock down his door, find him, and shoot him. Instead, they fired two Hellfire R9X missiles at him. Unlike most missiles, the Hellfire does not carry a warhead. Instead, it flings open six sharp blades that shred the target into pieces. That’s why it’s sometimes called the Ninja missile.
When al-Zawahiri was killed, there was no explosion and thus no collateral damage. President Biden, slipping in the polls and badly needing a piece of good news before the November midterm elections, did not want a public outcry against the killing of innocent civilians.
His “gotcha” moment had arrived. Biden hailed the killing and said justice had been delivered, just as Obama, whom he had served as vice president for two terms, had hailed the killing of Osama bin Laden 11 years ago. In fact, for several weeks, in all his public speeches, Obama would always interject the phrase, “We got bin Laden.”
We can say that the US intelligence leading up to both attacks was superb. We can also say that the drone that was used to “deliver justice” was well designed.
The Taliban seem to have acknowledged the killing since they immediately blamed the US for violating the Doha agreement, which was signed in February 2020 during the Trump presidency. They conveniently overlooked the fact that they were the first ones to violate the agreement by giving the leader of al-Qaeda a safe haven right in the heart of the capital of Afghanistan.
Here’s the big question that will only be answered with the passage of time: Was the killing anything but a symbolic victory for the US?
Al-Qaeda was a diminished force after the Taliban were deposed from Kabul in December 2001 and Osama bin Laden took refuge in Pakistan. That point was driven home by Nelly Lahoud. A plethora of new terror groups, some of them consisting of former al-Qaeda fighters from Egypt and Syria, had spun off from al-Qaeda. The major splinter group, ISIS, was more violent in its ways and engaged in mass killings of Muslims, especially in Iraq. Osama bin Laden advised caution, reminding them the US was the target but they had given up on him. But his railings against them went unnoticed.
After the US took him out, there was no step up in terrorist activity. No group carried out retaliatory attacks against the US, not even al-Qaeda whose leader had been killed. Perhaps it had been rendered powerless or perhaps its strategy had changed.
But in Afghanistan, the Taliban were in the ascendent and slowly and steadily they pushed the US out of Afghanistan. How powerful is al-Qaeda today, eleven years after the demise of the charismatic leader? Will the new leader be able to resurrect the old al-Qaeda? Will the Taliban assist him? Only time will tell.
Did Pakistan play any role in facilitating the attack on al-Zawahiri? Did the drone take off from a base in the Gulf? If so, did it fly over Pakistan? Did Pakistan track it? Was it forewarned? If yes, did it know the target was al-Qaeda’s leader?
Or did the drone take off from a former US airbase in Kyrgyzstan? The US had not disclosed the flight path, simply saying that he was killed in an “over-the-horizon” operation at 6.18 am local time.
There is the immediate question: Will the Taliban reign in al-Qaeda and ask them to leave Afghanistan, or will it continue giving them a safe haven? Angered and humiliated by the killing of al-Zawahiri, would it go in the other direction and encourage them and equip them to hit back at the US?
Who will succeed al-Zawahiri? Saif al-Adl, the man often mentioned as his likely successor, is living under semi-house arrest in Iran, which became the home-in-exile for many al-Qaeda leaders after the death of bin Laden. Will Iran, which has no love lost with the US, release him? If not, will it let him run the terrorist network from his house, possibly inviting a drone attack?
And then there is the ultimate question for President Biden. Will this killing give him that much needed boost in the polls? His popularity is at an all-time low. Will the Democrats win or lose in November?
The news of al-Zawahiri’s successful killing failed to get much traction in the US media. It was largely ignored by the American public, whose minds are diverted by the economic slowdown, rampant inflation, a looming recession, and the ongoing fight against the pandemic whose virus continues to span new versions.
It’s also diverted by the bad news from abroad, having to do with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where the war is still being fought with no end in sight, and there are fears that the US could be pulled into what might turn into a nuclear war. And there is shock and dismay at China’s extremely hostile reaction to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
It’s good that the US took out al-Zawahiri. The attack was brilliantly carried out and books will be written about it. But will it make any difference whatsoever in the fight against terror? That remains to be seen.