The Intelligence War Between NATO And Russia Is Heating Up: What Next?

After the election, Putin may attempt to extend Russian control to the Dnieper River and Kharkiv

The Intelligence War Between NATO And Russia Is Heating Up: What Next?

Recently, the wiretapping of the German state by Russian intelligence has been a significant topic in the news, particularly in the Western countries. The German Air Force was overheard by Russian intelligence, and the issue was subsequently published by Russia Today.

During a conversation among members of the German Air Force, Russian intelligence intercepted discussions about targeting the Crimean Bridge. The participants suggested that 20 to 30 rockets would be required to achieve this goal, to sever Russia's land connection to Crimea. There were reports of discussions among Germans about launching rockets at the Crimean bridge, and the British were reportedly preparing for such an event in Ukraine, having trained Ukrainians in Germany. 

This leak created a panic in Europe and the German Chancellor made a statement saying that Putin wanted to destabilise Germany.

The bugging of such high-ranking German personnel by the Russian secret service has shocked and worried Germany and the whole of Europe. The purported reason for this was the carelessness of German intelligence.

It is commonly observed that Russia is not in conflict with Ukraine but in effect with NATO.

Currently, Ukraine is facing a challenging situation. NATO countries have provided support in various ways. The European Union announced a € 50 billion support package for Ukraine. The United States of America also announced that it would provide Ukraine with an aid package of US$ 60 billion, but could not deliver this package for different reasons.

The Western world aimed to halt Russia's actions in Ukraine and remove Putin from power through a popular uprising within Russia. The ultimate goal was to integrate Russia into Europe and establish a democratic Russia, perhaps with Alexei Navalny as the leader. However, this plan did not come to fruition. Meanwhile, Alexei Navalny's death shocked the world.

On 31 March, an election will take place in Russia.

After the election, Putin may attempt to extend Russian control to the Dnieper River and Kharkiv. If he succeeds in gaining 70% control over Kharkiv, he may target Kyiv next. Russia may target Kyiv and put pressure on its government, potentially calling for a change in leadership. European leaders have acknowledged this possibility and are taking steps to strengthen their defence.

It is expected that Russia will launch an offensive in Ukraine in April. While Russia foresees that the US will not be able to assist Ukraine due to the upcoming elections, it also believes that Europe will not be able to take a clear military stance against Russia in Ukraine without the US. This assessment of the situation further encourages the Kremlin.

Europe is currently attempting to develop a new strategy to counter the increasingly perceived Russian threat. However, there is a lack of EU harmony internally regarding the best approach to take.

Protests by farmers, labourers, and other groups have spread throughout Europe and received widespread media coverage. The EU has been criticized for its inability to find solutions to these internal challenges. 

Last week, French President Macron questioned whether NATO should intervene in Ukraine. Many EU countries opposed this idea, as NATO's involvement could lead to a nuclear war.

Neither the US nor the EU desires to engage in a nuclear war with Russia. And Russia also does not want to enter into a nuclear war with the US and the EU.

The EU and the US are considering their options.

In Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is likely to be removed from office and a new president elected, which will be seen as a development that would prevent further Russian influence. This would also cause Russia to reconsider its desire for a change of government in Kyiv.