America as the superpower in the unipolar global order has a huge interest and leverage to impact regions around the world therefore, nations were seeing the US Presidential Elections as an important democratic activity and were more interested in finding out who is going to sit in the oval office than many of inside America. Trump made his way to the top due to focusing on domestic economic, political policies and a clear foreign policy of “No War”. Now the biggest question Trump will face is how to establish a fine balance between the interests of the countries in the emerging multipolar world and alliances in the unipolar world while safeguarding the US interests. This is an important question as it shifts the debate around global peace from an individual’s global vision in the Oval Office to the shared vision of allies.
Looking beyond Fukuyama’s “End of History”, we now see China’s political, economic, and cultural expansion in East Asia, Russia’s pushback against NATO in Eastern Europe, and ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel in Western Asia. The newly-elected president faces a daunting diplomatic task in bringing peace to these regions. The highest priority should be ending the genocide in Palestine, the president must convince Israel of a two-state solution that only seems to be a sustainable solution that could heal the world from what it has seen in the 21st century.
Trump has repeatedly stated that a sustainable peace in the Middle East that does not shatter every five to 10 years means that he is going to push regional allies to do the right job. Secondly, the president has to open doors of dialogue with Iran in partnership with Russia and China and settle its grievances. Iran would more likely accept any agreement these countries offer together given the years-long miscommunication due to years of diplomatic strain between the US and Iran. On the Russia-Ukraine front, Trump’s win has already eased concerns and diminished the perception about the potential escalation of the conflict into a broader war that could pit Europe against Asia. The President-elect has shared an open-ended clear policy of ending the war during his campaigns and his chemistry with Putin indicates there could be a swift start to the peace process in the region. It involves the tough task of facilitating and regulating negotiations between European leaders and Russia to address mutual insecurities, restore Ukraine’s sovereignty, and roll back NATO’s expansion.
The soul of Kashmir valley is incomplete without the Kashmir region on Pakistan’s side and the soul of Baltistan is shattered without Ladakh on the Indian side
Once these immediate high-intensity conflict zones are addressed, the president should focus on the latent conflict zone of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB): a region in South Asia floating in a liminal space at the intersection of China, India, and Russia within the emerging multipolar order. Historically, at the center stage during the great game for power and superiority between British, Russia, and China in the old multipolar world, GB now is the only liminal space where the hegemonic interests of the unipolar and multipolar world overlap and have started to clash. It is considered to be the lifeline for Pakistan offering immense geopolitical and geostrategic value due to its geography at the crossroads of India, Central Asian States, China, and Russia. The region remained a key junction for traders on the ancient Silk Road, and today it is the entry point of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC is China’s billion-dollar flagship project in the “One Belt One Road” initiative to revive the old Silk Roads.
India claims GB as part of its broader territorial dispute over Kashmir with Pakistan, ignoring the fact that the people of this region fought and secured their freedom at the time the British left the region in 1947. This disputed claim has sabotaged the region for the last seven decades due to violation of the United Nations (UN) against its charter and the basic principle of “freedom” its entire body stands on. The soul of Kashmir valley is incomplete without the Kashmir region on Pakistan’s side and the soul of Baltistan is shattered without Ladakh on the Indian side.
This fight for the right to the entire Kashmir, Baltistan, and Gilgit incorrectly grouped under the “Kashmir Issue” has led Pakistan and India into three undecisive wars and countless skirmishes that took millions of lives. Today tensions are once again escalating in this highest battleground in High Asia, risking to ignite further hostilities between the three nuclear-armed neighbours: China, Pakistan, and India. Hence, GB remains a buffer zone, just as it was during the British colonisation in the old great game, this buffer zone life for centuries has shattered its social fabric and natural order. The people of the entire region are experiencing a decades-long lockdown similar to the one people experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Caught up in the rivalries of these superpowers at home and beyond, generations have passed without realising the meaning of humanity and enjoying the full freedom one should have on their land.
The world has seen China and India stretching their military muscles in the backdrop of economic and political rivalry for the first time after the 1962 Sino-India war. Currently, the region’s stability is a criterion for global peace as any human error could turn it into a nuclear flashpoint
The unipolar world sees India’s role as a potential economic power to counter the rise of China and India’s interest in GB aligns with this role. One of the plans on the cards, which the Indian defense ministry repeatedly reveals, is to capture GB, sever the Pakistan-China border, block CPEC, redraw the India-China border to weaken China’s regional influence, and open the Central Asian markets for the industrial growth at home. Sitting on top of the world in this region, the next stage to discipline and limit China’s interaction in the region is controlling the Wakhan Corridor: a narrow strip of land the colonial British carved as part of their “divide and rule” policy. Today, it is an active trade route between both countries and serves the Chinese well to access the mineral-rich mountains in Afghanistan. Hence such a strategic triumph will allow India to control that trade and also use its influence in Afghanistan to further isolate Pakistan and China.
China and Pakistan both seem to have realised this and countered this strategy with a two-front war against India. China has built massive military infrastructures at multiple points along the Indian border (Line of Actual Control) and Pakistan has replicated that on its side of the border (Line of Control). The world has seen China and India stretching their military muscles in the backdrop of economic and political rivalry for the first time after the 1962 Sino-India war. Currently, the region’s stability is a criterion for global peace as any human error could turn it into a nuclear flashpoint, unleashing doors of hell for the entire world and human civilisation. The president-elect who himself miraculously dodged a bullet with a slight turn of his head now has an opportunity to deliver peace. Trump's possible intervention to unlock these horns could more likely begin by bringing all the stakeholders — both the visible and players behind the scenes to the negotiating table. This includes waking up the United Nations to restore its dignity by cleaning the dust settled on the files regarding the “Kashmir Issue” and inviting stakeholders for a conclusive dialogue. The UN needs to encourage the parties and lead the way by looking at today’s realities and going backward in search of the departed souls of the regions mentioned above.
Donald Trump has a mission to make America great again at home and with a spiritual awakening to the second innings of his life, the responsibility of making the world better again lies on his shoulders. I hope that with his skillful diplomacy and leadership skills, he can end these deadlocks of competing interests, guiding the world toward a stable multipolar order. We need to embrace this new reality, a balanced world with multiple centers of power is far better than a world destabilised by conflicts and genocides. If Trump can leverage America’s influence to address these issues in West Asia, Eastern Europe, East, and South Asia in the next five years, the US could still maintain its status as a respected superpower- a feat that only a true global leader can achieve through peaceful means. These broader talking points about restoring peace in half of the world, stopping its spillover to the remaining half, and resolving the future conflict zones like in Gilgit-Baltistan must be on the president elect’s frontal cortex while he leaves on a long walk to remember toward oval office.