In the last weeks of September, Israel conducted intense air strikes on Beirut, and southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites. These strikes killed hundreds of people. As widely expected, Israel then invaded Lebanon overnight on October 1, in what it calls 'limited operations'. Israel last invaded Lebanon in 2006. Intense fighting is now taking place between the Israeli military forces and Hezbollah in the area.
As of October 8, weeks of intense Israeli strikes and other attacks in Lebanon have killed more than 1,400 people and displaced another 1.2 million. Hezbollah has still been defiant despite suffering a series of devastating blows in recent weeks, including the killing of its leader and most of its top military commanders.
After a year of cross-border fighting, hostilities have escalated steadily. On October 8, Hezbollah claimed to have launched missile attacks on the Israeli port city of Haifa and a military base near the central city of Tel Aviv. It showed confidence in the war against Israeli aggression. Meanwhile, Israel hit a Hezbollah intelligence headquarters in Beirut as it continued to strike the city, targetting Hezbollah's leadership and armament stocks, and issued new evacuation orders for southern Lebanon.
Tel Aviv has pledged to make it a safe for displaced Israeli residents to return to their homes near the Lebanese border. Earlier, the US expressed support for Israel by saying on September 30 that Israel had no plan for a prolonged occupation of southern Lebanon.
As expected, on September 30 Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Iran against entering the conflict.
Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Mikati urged the UN to provide aid for the displaced by Israel’s attacks over recent weeks.
As expected, the global response was unified in calling for a halt in hostilities and warning of the dangers of a broader regional conflagration. This new phase of the Israeli operations, however, has sent alarms ringing throughout the Middle East. It further raises the risk of a wider escalation in the fight with Iran and Iran-backed armed groups in the region. Resultantly, Turkiye, Pakistan, UAE, Qatar, and Japan have all been quick to express concern.
Turkiye President Erdogan claimed on October 1, that Israel could target Turkiye next. He criticised both the international community and the Islamic world for not stopping Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon. He vowed to stand strong against Israel and to support Lebanon. Subsequently on October 1, Turkiye demanded an immediate cessation of Israel's offensive and the withdrawal of Israeli troops. Erdogan warned that the incursion jeopardises the security and stability of countries in the region, heightening the risk of a new wave of migration and the resurgence of extremist groups. The UN Security Council, he urged, must uphold international law and take necessary measures against this assault aimed at occupying Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s political leadership met in an All-Parties Conference (APC) on October 7, which called for the immediate cessation of Israeli hostilities and urged the Muslim world to form a unified platform to defend Palestinian rights. The participants also agreed on sending a delegation to key international capitals to raise awareness of Israel’s crimes. The resolution declared that Israel’s ongoing actions were a grave threat to regional stability and world peace and called on global powers to take immediate action. Prominent political figures were in attendance.
Earlier, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Abdelaty on October 1, had deplored Israel’s escalation in southern Lebanon and warned that it threatens to inflame the entire region in a way that will lead to dire security and humanitarian consequences.
The UAE, which has pushed for normalisation with Israel under the Abraham Accords, also expressed deep concern over the escalation in fighting and called for international support to prevent further escalation, and stressed the importance of providing full protection to civilians. President Al Nahyan directed the delivery of an urgent $100 million relief package to the people of Lebanon.
Similarly, Qatar’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs al-Khulaifi warned that Lebanon needs our unwavering support now more than ever to safeguard its integrity and security. Standing with the brotherly people of Lebanon is not just a moral duty but an imperative necessity.
Nasrallah's killing were met with large, voiciferous protests, including Australia, Pakistan, Iran, and Bahrain. Iran said it would not let any of Israel's "criminal acts" go unanswered
The stakes in Lebanon were raised by Israel which followed up a widespread, intelligence and espionage based mass terror attack by targetting some 3,000 pagers and walkie talkies allegedly in use of Hezbollah members, by targetting the group's long-standing leader, Hassan Nasrallah. To get to Nasrallah, Israel had to drop scores of bunker buster bombs on a primarily residential neighbourhood in south Beirut on September 27. An Iranian Guard deputy commander died in the strikes as well. Nasrallah was a much-respected leader of Hezbollah and had led it for 32 years. He was particularly remarkably close to the Iranian leadership that had created Hezbollah in 1982 in response to the Israeli occupation of Lebanon. Nasrallah had built Hezbollah into Lebanon's most powerful military and even political force, with wide influence across the Middle East region. His killing, along with other senior commanders, is a major setback to the organisation and to Iran.
As expected, numerous countries expressed concern about an escalation of the conflict. The Japanese government urged an immediate ceasefire and maximum restraint to prevent a further escalation of the conflict.
Russia warned that the area of hostilities is expanding, which is further destabilising the region and increasing tensions.
Spain’s foreign minister demanded that Israel cease its ground raids to avoid the conflict enveloping the region.
Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni said on October 1, that regional de-escalation is urgent and necessary. Italy is collaborating with allies to stabilise the situation along the Israeli-Lebanon border, and to help people who have been displaced by the fighting return to their homes.
NATO’s new chief Mark Rutte expressed hope that hostilities would end soon.
The UK Foreign Minister Lammy warned that “the price of a regional war would be huge," and urged restraint by Iran.
Earlier, the Arab world was divided over Nasrallah's killing, and many states responded to it with silence by many states across the region. In some of these countries, opinion is split between populations who are outraged by Israel's actions and authorities who are pursuing normalised ties with Israel or are opposed to Iran. On September 29, 2024, Saudi Arabia said in a statement that urged the preservation of the sovereignty and regional security of Lebanon. But it was careful to make no mention of Nasrallah.
Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain have stayed completely quiet on Nasrallah's killing. Egyptian President al-Sisi said he rejected any violation of Lebanon's sovereignty. He did not mention Nasrallah.
In countries further afield, Nasrallah's killing were met with large, voiciferous protests, including Australia, Pakistan, Iran, and Bahrain. Iran said it would not let any of Israel's "criminal acts" go unanswered.
Referring to the killing of Nasrallah, Russia said his death had led to a serious destabilisation in the broader region.
As expected, on September 30 Syria warned that the killing of Nasrallah had pushed the region to the brink of a dangerous escalation and confrontation.
Yemen's Houthis said on September 30 that they would, however, escalate military operations against Israel in response to its attacks. Earlier, an Israeli attack against Houthi targets, including its main port, killed five.
The Biden administration does not support an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Such an attack would certainly trigger a wider conflict The problem is that for Netanyahu, and some of his most hawkish advisers, such a strike could end an existential threat to Israel forever
With the Gaza war completing a year, Israeli forces continued their bombardment of the Palestinian people, killing at least 77 people in Gaza on October 7. Hamas, which has lost most of its leadership since October 7, promised to wage a “war of attrition”. Israel, which has promised to wipe out Hamas, continues fighting in the streets of Gaza a year on. The total number of Palestinians killed since Israel’s retaliation has risen to at least 41,909, with 97,303 others injured. An enormous number of Gazans have been displaced as Israel’s attacks have been among the deadliest, ever recorded in modern warfare with more ordinance dropped on the narrow strip than Hiroshima. But the cost has been steep for Israel as well who has lost 729 soldiers and 67 police officers. A year on from the Gaza attack, Netanyahu swore to stop such a raid from ever happening again.
The war in Gaza has also highlighted the limits of American influence, with the Biden administration unable or unwilling to exert the pressure needed to broker a truce.
Undoubtedly the ground invasion of southern Lebanon is going to be a severe problem for Israel. It will also deal a further blow to Hezbollah which already has suffered a major setback by Israeli attacks lately. However, Hezbollah will recover and cannot be vanquished by Israel because of its essential nature. Being an ideology that has extraordinarily strong roots in society and an extraordinarily sturdy base of public support in Lebanon, Israel cannot defeat it. Iran will also fully back Hezbollah to combat Israel.
As expected, the US is actively supporting Israel’s defense. It is Israel’s closest ally, and biggest weapons supplier, and has sent more forces and warships to help defend Israel. The US already has 40,000 soldiers in the region. Since the Gaza war began, US troops have been targeted by Iranian proxy groups. In January, three US soldiers were killed in a drone attack on an outpost in Jordan.
The US has declared that it will never waiver to protect US forces and interests in the Middle East - especially Israel.
Biden’s past efforts at influencing Israel have been ineffective. Biden's attempts at brokering ceasefire agreements both in Gaza and along the Israel-Lebanon border have been fruitless. The Lebanese prime minister claimed that a day before Israel killed Nasrallah, he had agreed to a peace deal brokered by the US. The US President is paralysed into inaction because of the November presidential elections. He fears that any pressure on Israel could offend the immensely powerful domestic Israeli lobby. Since all wars have necessarily political aims and all politics is local, therefore, electoral politics will again triumph over national interests. It always happens.
Today, there is a concern in the US that an Israeli strike on Iran could prompt further retaliation and result in a full-scale war, even a world war. The Biden administration does not support an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Such an attack would certainly trigger a wider conflict The problem is that for Netanyahu, and some of his most hawkish advisers, such a strike could end an existential threat to Israel forever.
There has been no dramatic shift in Iran’s nuclear posture recently. It is closer to achieving nuclear threshold capability than ever before. Iran’s breakout time, the amount of time needed to produce enough nuclear material for a nuclear weapon, is suggested by the US and its ilk to be probably one or two weeks.
Meanwhile, the US supports targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, it fears that Isreal’s operation there can quickly turn into a larger-scale, prolonged war. The Biden administration rightly fears further regional escalation.
The question on everyone's mind is how Israel will respond now. Will Biden be able to quell any reckless Israeli adventurism? Most probably, Israel’s response to the Iranian attack will be mostly measured.
The larger Arab and Muslim world will only pay lip service to the cause of ceasefire, and regional peace. No one will take on Israel itself. But fatigue will make sure that Israelis defeat its hopeless and naïve idea of totally vanquishing its enemies
No matter how Israel responds now, a wider war is not imminent as Iran, as expected, is showing restraint to avoid one. The Iranian regime has wisely decided to avoid an all-out war with Israel and all costs. Therefore, Iran plans a new type of war with Israel. The conflict will now turn into a low-key war of attrition in which Israel will be exhausted and will be forced to pull out of southern Lebanon, as before.
Iran will bid for time and will show great patience as its fight with Israel. The Iranian regime and its protégé, Hezbollah, will show patience and will retaliate in exceedingly small and quick attacks, akin to classic guerilla warfare techniques. Meanwhile, Iran will attack Israel only indirectly through the “axis of resistance” it has built and nurtured over the decades. Most importantly, China and Russia will support Iran somehow. Netanyahu’s triumphalism will then see a sorry day. Thus, we are now entering a forever low-level conflict scenario in which the Lebanese and Palestinian people will continue to suffer immensely and potentially indefinitely.
Notwithstanding the pious claims, the larger Arab and Muslim world will only pay lip service to the cause of ceasefire, and regional peace. No one will take on Israel itself. But fatigue will make sure that Israelis defeat its hopeless and naïve idea of totally vanquishing its enemies. It is only through the realisation that the so-called enemies of Israel just cannot be defeated that the war will end. But for the immediate future, misery, destruction, and killings can be easily predicted. Meanwhile, the hypocrisy of the world’s leaders will become bare for all the hapless people of the region to see.
There is a glimmer of hope now that the tide of world public opinion is turning against Israel. Tens of thousands of people have rallied around the world, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon. Protesters gathered in dozens of cities on October 7, 2024; to mark the anniversary of the Gaza war, as Israeli forces continued their operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Pro-Palestinian demonstrations were held, some huge, in Germany, New Zealand, Australia, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Morocco, and the US. At the Vatican, Pope Francis called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon.
Eventually, only a groundswell of global public opinion forcing the world leadership to pressure Israel for the universally held two-state solution can bring peace to the region. Nothing else can do it. Simple as that.