What Trump’s Victory Could Mean For Pakistan

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Donald Trump's presidency could bring shifts in US-Pakistan relations, affecting trade, security ties, and economic policies, as his focus on tariffs and alliances shapes new dynamics

2024-11-12T12:31:00+05:00 Omar Quraishi

A lot has already been said about what Donald Trump's resounding victory means for America and the rest of the world – from a dramatic shift in America's domestic policies on immigration, refugees, and LGBTQ issues to its climate change policies, a lot of change and pivoting is expected.

And then there will be the war in Ukraine as well as the ongoing unchecked genocide by Israel of Palestinians, in which America has been both a silent spectator and a willing accomplice and facilitator. In the case of the former, going by Trump's statements while on the campaign trail, he is expected to ask Europe to step up and do its bit to protect its own borders, as well as seek an early end to the war in Ukraine. In fact, the President-elect has already been quoted as saying that he will be talking soon to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and it is likely that he will be pushing for a cessation of hostilities and an end to billions in military aid to Ukraine. 

As for Israel and Gaza, Trump is perhaps Israel's biggest backer and is unlikely to bend Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's arm to get him to end the incessant bombing that has so far taken tens of thousands of Palestinian lives. That said, Trump has been quoted in the US media as telling the Israeli prime minister that by the time he takes the oath of office (in late January 2025), Israel should have wrapped up its war in Gaza.

The Pakistani military, while diversifying, is still dependent to some extent on spares from the US for its hardware, while the Americans see nuclear-armed Pakistan and its strong military as a counter to increasing militancy and terrorism in the Middle East and Asia. This means their close relationship is likely to continue under President Trump as well

Moving on to Pakistan now, the most obvious question on the minds of many a Pakistani – and it's like a belief, in fact, for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) supporters – is whether Trump's victory means that former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan will be released from jail. And the short and simple answer to that is 'no'. And the reason for that is that Trump has a host of issues to deal with when he takes office as America's 47th president; these include its domestic issues and then Ukraine and through its relations with the European Union and NATO-related issues, and then Israel and Palestine. Furthermore, Trump has also repeatedly said he will take measures to protect US industry and businesses from cheap Chinese imports. Pakistan, or its jailed former prime minister, does not really figure in Trump's list of priorities.

As for the impact on the bilateral US-Pakistan relationship, the militaries of both countries have close ties and Pakistani military officers go to the US for training, and both countries have taken part in joint military exercises. The Pakistani military, while diversifying, is still dependent to some extent on spares from the US for its hardware, while the Americans see nuclear-armed Pakistan and its strong military as a counter to increasing militancy and terrorism in the Middle East and Asia. This means their close relationship is likely to continue under President Trump as well. In this matrix will also factor America's relationship with India, and this is likely to grow under Trump, who will seek to expand economic and trade ties with Delhi. For Islamabad, the challenge will be to expand what is a predominantly security relationship with the US into one that is dominated by business, commerce, and trade.

This will be connected to Trump's repeated pronouncements that as America's next president, he will be seeking to impose not only a stiff tariff regime against China, but also a flat 20% across-the-board tariff on all imports into the US. Given that the US is Pakistan's largest trading partner and with which it enjoys a healthy trade surplus, an imposition of such a tariff could have very adverse consequences, and affect Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves. So the question to ask here is, what is the current government planning on dealing with such an eventuality? If the 20% tariff is imposed on Pakistani exports to the US, it wouldn't have come at a worse time, as the country's economy is trying to get back on its feet and a crucial plank of that strategy is an increase in exports. 

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