As the spectre of a Donald Trump presidency looms again, some in Pakistan are clinging to the idea that a Trump win on November 5 would somehow revive US-Pakistan relations or, better yet, secure a favourable outcome for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founder Imran Khan. Such ideas are nothing short of fantasy. The reality is that US foreign policy operates with a cold logic — one dictated by American interests, not the whims of a populist leader or the hopes of a diaspora.
While members of Congress may occasionally voice concern over Imran Khan's imprisonment, this is more of a nod to their constituents than a harbinger of policy change. For many Pakistani Americans, particularly those connected with the influential Association of Physicians of Pakistani Descent of North America (AAPNA), these statements offer a glimmer of hope. Founded in the early 2000s, AAPNA is now a powerful lobbying entity representing over 18,000 Pakistani-American doctors. With Imran Khan's arrest, AAPNA has mobilised, urging US lawmakers to pay attention to what they see as Pakistan's slide from democratic norms. But even with its reach, AAPNA's influence on foreign policy is likely limited; America's strategic interests simply won't be dictated by a diaspora organisation.
If Trump reclaims the presidency, we can expect a shift back to his hallmark "America First" doctrine, one that views foreign aid with disdain and measures alliances in purely transactional terms. In this scenario, Pakistan could brace for reduced US assistance, with aid likely conditional upon immediate American security goals.
Trump's "America First" lens: No free passes, no free aid
Trump has always been unabashed about his "America First" priorities, with foreign aid seen as expendable and international partnerships worth maintaining only if they yield swift benefits for the US. Unlike Biden's administration, which has invested in civilian support and democratic structures abroad, Trump is more likely to slash aid and focus exclusively on what serves immediate American interests.
Trump could well leverage US aid and trade as bargaining chips, urging Pakistan to dial back its economic and technological cooperation with China. For Islamabad, walking the tightrope between Washington and Beijing would be a hazardous act
Pakistan, long a recipient of American aid, may find itself on the wrong end of these budget cuts as the US increasingly funnels resources toward direct security and counterterrorism efforts, leaving economic and democratic development on the chopping block.
Squeezing Pakistan as US-China tensions escalate
Trump's previous administration escalated tensions with China, launching a tariff-fuelled trade war that strained US-China relations to new extremes. Should he return to office, expect this rivalry to heat up even further—and for Pakistan to feel the pressure.
With China as Pakistan's closest ally, especially through joint initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a Trump administration would scrutinise Pakistan's loyalties with renewed vigour. Trump could well leverage US aid and trade as bargaining chips, urging Pakistan to dial back its economic and technological cooperation with China. For Islamabad, walking the tightrope between Washington and Beijing would be a hazardous act, with the very real risk of diplomatic fallout on either side.
Favouring India: Pakistan as collateral damage in the Indo-Pacific strategy
Pakistan could also face an amplified tilt toward India under Trump, whose administration has historically viewed India as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific.
Trump's affinity for India could deepen, particularly if he views India's growing clout as a strategic bulwark against Beijing. Pakistan, on the other hand, might see its concerns downplayed or dismissed altogether, including the volatile Kashmir issue.
With Trump's preference for clear-cut alliances, any perception of Pakistan's allegiance with China could translate into a cooling of US-Pakistan relations — a dynamic that could place Islamabad on the defensive as it navigates regional security challenges.
Intensified Scrutiny on Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal
Trump has voiced concerns about nuclear security in South Asia, often viewing Pakistan's nuclear stockpile with scepticism. His administration would likely impose stricter conditions on aid and support, accompanied by renewed demands for transparency and oversight. Trump's unpredictability could also heighten demands for Pakistan to crack down on extremist groups, as he'd prioritise actions that deliver immediate US security gains.
Pakistan's strategic calculus would likely be tested, forced to comply with an increasingly transactional relationship or risk losing the limited support from Washington altogether.
Pakistan's path forward: Bracing for a transactional future
A Trump presidency would force Pakistan into a difficult balancing act. With an "America First" administration that would be quick to cut aid and cold to diplomatic engagement, Pakistan may find itself turning further toward China for economic stability. The challenge would be navigating between US security demands and Pakistan's regional interests without compromising on either.
For Islamabad, the stakes under a second Trump administration would be higher than ever. Trump's potential return signals a recalibration of US-Pakistan relations toward selective engagement — one that prioritises American security and leaves Pakistan with tough choices.