For over two decades, the US Department of Defence (DoD) has released an annual report known as the China Military Power Report. The report typically provides an overview of China’s strategy, military forces, and global expansion. Particularly within the past decade, the language used by the US towards China has evolved from passive and indirect to increasingly confrontational. The 2024 China Military Power Report is no different; it depicts the picture of Chinese military modernisation and global expansion as the greatest threat to US global hegemony. Detailed analysis of the Pentagon’s 2024 report is crucial in understanding the direction of US foreign and defence policy towards China in 2025, as it offers valuable insights into the potential evolution of the global strategic landscape in the year ahead.
The first major takeaway from the 2024 report is the significant claims made by the Pentagon regarding China’s nuclear expansion. According to the DoD, China currently possesses over 600 operational nuclear warheads, and will possess “over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels.” Additionally, the Pentagon has accused China of building new missile fields for its intercontinental ballistic missiles, developing hypersonic glide vehicles, and modifying its nuclear strategy to implement an ‘early warning counterstrike’ posture, in which “warning of a missile strike leads to a counterstrike before an enemy’s first strike can detonate.”
The US views China’s nuclear modernisation and expansion as escalatory in nature, and the former Trump administration even wanted to engage Beijing in nuclear arms discussions. The reality, however, is that the US currently has a far greater nuclear stockpile than China, and is undergoing nuclear modernisation of its own. For the US to expect China to engage in nuclear arms talks, and reduce its arsenal without doing so itself is rather contradictory. This dynamic also poses a threat to the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, which could see further deterioration under Trump 2.0.
With both the US and China aiming to maintain a technological edge, there is likely going to be a global arms race surrounding advanced military technologies. This competition could redefine the global strategic landscape and the conduct of warfare
The second major focus of the Pentagon’s report was on China’s aerospace capabilities. It claimed that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is "rapidly approaching technology" up to US standards, and is "modernising and indigenising" its aircrafts, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). It is important to note, however, that a senior defence official clarified that this claim referred to UAVs in particular, not the PLAAF’s overall capabilities. Regardless, this is a major admission from the Pentagon and comes at a time when the US is aiming to field thousands of autonomous drones in multiple domains by 2025, through its Replicator Initiative.
Another significant claim made by the DoD is that China is “increasingly leveraging space-based surveillance to track US and allied forces and enhance its precision-strike capabilities”. Using advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) integrated with its satellite data, Beijing can “identify vulnerabilities and guide high-precision missile strikes”. The Pentagon has referred to China’s integration of AI, big data, and its space capabilities as “multi-domain precision warfare”.
The aerospace advancements of both the US and China are indicative of where the future of warfare is heading; UAVs are set to figure heavily on the battlefield, and space capabilities will be absolutely crucial for military operations in the near future. With both the US and China aiming to maintain a technological edge, there is likely going to be a global arms race surrounding advanced military technologies. This competition could redefine the global strategic landscape and the conduct of warfare.
However, China has emphatically slammed the Pentagon’s report. Mr. Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defence, stated that “the US has repeatedly published such highly deceptive and hypocritical reports for over 20 years, merely seeking excuses for its own military development”. Mr. Zhang went on to further state that “the war-addicted United States has become the biggest destroyer of international order and the greatest threat to global security”.
Ultimately, the Pentagon’s 2024 China Military Power Report was exactly as expected; the US portraying China’s military advancements as the reason for US military modernisation, not vice versa. While one might hope that 2025 could see a move towards ‘peaceful co-existence’ between the major powers, the Pentagon’s report suggests otherwise. The intensifying US-China competition not only raises the likelihood of direct or indirect conflict but also has a cascading effect on regional stability in South Asia. With the US heavily arming India in order to contain China’s rise, particularly in the nuclear and aerospace domains, it will only serve to further accelerate an arms race with Pakistan, which will have no option but to respond in order to ensure its national security. For both regional and global stability to endure, both the US and China must be willing to negotiate and seek diplomatic solutions and attempt to move towards peaceful co-existence.