Pakistan and Afghanistan share a historically conflictual relationship shaped by border disputes, ethno-nationalist tensions, and divergent geopolitical alignments. Pakistan's recent airstrikes in Afghanistan, reportedly targeting TTP hideouts there, have intensified bilateral mistrust, reflecting Islamabad’s concerns over cross-border terrorism. Moreover, there are media reports of Pakistan’s intervention in the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow Afghan strip connecting Central and South Asia. The Taliban regime has denied such a development and considering Wakhan’s economic and trade significance for China, traditionally a close ally of Pakistan, it is implausible that the latter has ‘occupied’ the Wakhan corridor as hyped by some local and foreign media especially Indian.
With the current Chinese-led economic development, plans for West Asia the Wakhan Corridor has become a crucial part of the debate. Pakistan looks at it through the lens of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Chinese government wishes to expand the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the invitation of three countries; Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China for economic cooperation through the Wakhan corridor has raised hefty geopolitical concerns. The complex interplay of interest among these nations has added extraordinary significance to this piece of territory.
In the initial phase of 2022, Pakistani military forces crossed into the Wakhan corridor to adjust the demarcations that had been essentially set out by the Russian Empire in 1895. However, the intervention was not welcomed by the Afghan Taliban regime. The corridor that separates Badakhshan and Chuparson Valley, became a point of contention between the two countries. The Afghani social media sites became active exclaiming “Long live Taliban” against the actions of the Pakistan military. Looking at the burgeoning anger among the two states, and the withering economic benefits from the region, China thought of pursuing economic goals in terms of institutional collaboration with the Afghan Taliban whose current regime formally has not been recognised by any state. However, informally countries such as Russia, Iran, and even Pakistan have maintained sort of diplomatic ties with Kabul.
Through Chinese support, infrastructure development was advanced within the corridor as a high-level Taliban official and Chinese ambassador prioritised the project’s strategic improvement above the border wars. For Afghanistan, the idea of the Wakhan corridor is heavily ingrained in the economic benefits that the country aims to reap. The Wakhan corridor provides a direct trade route to China and could reduce the intervention from intermediaries, thus building a sense of independence for the region in terms of trade and economy.
Countries such as India find the Wakhan corridor to be a regional threat as the benefits of the development are retained within the three parties: Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan
Theoretically, the Wakhan corridor could become the main tool for trade connections in Central Asia and the collaboration of the three countries could lead to a large-scale development within West Asia. For Pakistan, the Khyber Pass Economic Corridor (KPEC) worth US $406.6 million, has become a focal point, where the country finds its economic goals intertwine with those of China. From a security lens, China finds peace-making the only way forward as the corridor provides a buffer zone to protect the country’s highly sensitive Xinjiang region.
While the corridor provides a win-win situation for this tripartite, the regional dynamics and challenges may reduce the overall economic generation from the region. The first issue is based on the security systems aligned with the corridor. The highly complicated interaction between the Pakistan and Taliban regime has made trade strenuous. Considering the mining interests of the Chinese in the Mes Aynak Copper mines puts China at the position to balance development with the current regional dynamics.
Other than the forces benefitting from the corridor, some find it as a form of economic competition. Countries such as India find the Wakhan corridor to be a regional threat as the benefits of the development are retained within the three parties: Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan. This exacerbates the security threat prevailing within the region, as the beneficiaries would attain significant economic control of West Asia. Even though the corridor provides an efficient trade route, the infrastructural development requires technical expertise and is a laborious process from the investment and construction end.
Importantly, the recent geopolitical tensions between Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and military-dominated Pakistan have raised alarming bells regarding economic potential and interaction with Kabul. As a landlocked country, Afghanistan cannot conveniently engage in cross-regional trade if it continues to escalate border issues with Pakistan and water disputes with Iran. Hence, peace with its neighbors is necessary to realise its economic potential optimally.
In our view, Pakistan, Iran, and China need to engage diplomatically with the Afghan Taliban to end its support for the TTP, resolve water issues with Iran, and avoid raising disputes over the Durand Line, which is an international border between the two countries as per UN conventions. Talks are thus a means to address lingering crises and achieve lasting peace, which is a prerequisite for multilateral economic and trade cooperation. Geopolitical instability will not serve their interests.