A crucial component of Pakistan's national defense policy and strategic balance is its nuclear program against regional adversaries, specifically India. However, it is under international sanctions, especially from the United States (US), because of concerns about nuclear proliferation, the security of its arsenal, and the implications for regional and global stability. Pakistan faces a major challenge in juggling these international pressures with both diplomacy and national security.
Pakistan started its nuclear adventure and carried out its first nuclear tests by 1998, which spurred the country to develop its deterrent capability following India's 1974 nuclear test. Yet sadly, despite realising the importance of regional peace, security, and strategic stability in the region, the Western powers have been watching with skepticism the development of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program; particularly, the United States has been critical of advancing Pakistan’s strategic capabilities.
The US consistently made reservations over Pakistan’s nuclear program, particularly since the early 2000s when the proliferation operations of the A.Q. Khan networks were made public. Although Pakistan has made efforts to strengthen export controls and dismantle this network, the legacy of these incidents still influences United States policy. The United States has pressured Pakistan to sign both the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty, but it is resisting because of its regional security dynamics.
In an attempt to stop the development and spread of Pakistan's ballistic missile program, the United States recently announced several sanctions on December 19, 2024. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer feared that Pakistan's long-range missile capabilities could enable it to strike targets beyond South Asia, including the US. Finer called this progression an “emerging threat” to the US. The US government imposed sanctions on Pakistan's National Development Complex and three Karachi-based companies (Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International, and Rockside Enterprise) for their involvement in advancing Pakistan's long-range missile capabilities, particularly the Shaheen series.
The rationale behind the U.S. sanctions raises critical questions. Pakistan has categorically denied any intention or capability to target the United States. The selective application of non-proliferation policies is biased and has double standards. Despite the claims, the current missile arsenal of Pakistan does not include any missile that is even able to reach the US mainland, which is at a distance of more than 12,000 kilometers. Unlike Pakistan, in the case of India, much of the assessment oversight has not reached its missile capabilities with the Agni-V and the future Agni-VI which will have a range of over 10,000 kilometers.
It appears Washington is at ease with India's missile capabilities, which might jeopardise the security of its heartland or Western countries. Specifically, the Agni-V and VI would be utilised to hit targets in the United States rather than Pakistan's ballistic missiles, which have a maximum range of 2750 kilometers.
Pakistan's missile program is seen as a destabilisng factor that affects US strategic, economic, and military interests and has repercussions well beyond its immediate neighbourhood
U.S. perceptions regarding the reliability of India as a partner are further complicated by its strategic autonomy. India's independent foreign policy is highlighted through its reserved views about the South China Sea also followed by a neutral stance over the Ukraine situation and further active defense cooperation with Russia, including the S-400 missile system purchase against U.S. wishes. Therefore, the assumption of a strategic partnership with India, as part of the U.S.-led effort to counter China, is unrealistic and unproductive in undermining U.S. coherence in strategic thinking around the South Asian region and broader Indo-Pacific.
It is believed that the sanctions imposed on Pakistan's missile program are attempts to weaken its defensive capabilities, leaving it open to outside attacks. Pakistan's strategic connections with China also annoy the US and its allies, which complicates the geopolitical situation even more.
The United States' concerns may stem from the perceived dangers to its interests in South Asia, the Middle East, and the larger Indo-Pacific area. In South Asia, tensions with India are exacerbated by Pakistan's missile arsenal, especially its nuclear-capable systems. The possibility of an arms race and other conflicts that could destabilise the region is increased by this nuclear rivalry. Any disruption in South Asia might have a direct effect on US interests because of the US's close strategic and economic links to India as well as its function as a regional stability advocate.
The potential for Pakistan or its proxies to employ or proliferate missiles might jeopardise US military operations and vital interests, including energy security. For example, US allies like Israel, the Shaheen-III missile from Pakistan, which can reach areas of the Middle East, is a cause for concern. An additional area of concern is the Indian Ocean, an important trade and strategic route. The development of missile-deployment platforms based on ships and submarines by Pakistan might endanger maritime security, including US and allied naval operations.
Lastly, US concerns are also influenced by the larger Indo-Pacific strategy. Even if Pakistan is not the main emphasis, its developing missile capabilities indirectly impact the dynamics of regional security, particularly when China's influence is taken into account. Accordingly, Pakistan's missile program is seen as a destabilisng factor that affects US strategic, economic, and military interests and has repercussions well beyond its immediate neighbourhood.
At this critical juncture, Pakistan is under more scrutiny to navigate these challenges. With effect from January 20, 2025, when Donald Trump is scheduled to take office as president of the United States, Pakistan should initiate all-around measures. Due to his administration's pro-India stand on matters regarding Islamabad, there will be added pressure to counter any strategic moves that the Trump government may make.
The political leadership must foster unity among political and religious factions, ensuring political stability and social harmony. Confidence-building measures (CBMs) are essential to consolidate national strength. Pakistan should actively engage with friendly states to counter U.S. allegations and build international support. Strengthening ties with allies in the Islamic world, China, and other strategic partners will be crucial. Reinforcing the security of nuclear and missile assets is imperative to address international concerns and prevent proliferation risks. Pakistan should advocate for a constructive strategic dialogue with the U.S. as an alternative to sanctions. This dialogue could address mutual concerns, build trust, and promote a more balanced understanding of Pakistan’s security priorities.