Last Sunday, JUI chief Maulana Fazalur Rehman publicly revealed for the first time that he had ended the Islamabad sit-in late last year on the assurance that Prime Minister Imran Khan would immediately step down and fresh elections will be held within three months. Saying this, he also gave a call for another mass uprising starting from February 23 from Karachi.
The Maulana did not name who made the promise in return for ending the sit-in. However, implying that the Punjab Assembly Speaker Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi was privy to it, he urged the latter “to disclose the secret he is carrying as amanat (trust),” referring to Elahi’s earlier remarks that the assurances given to Maulana was an ‘amanat’ with him. By asking Elahi to disclose it, the wily Maulana succeeded in conveying a subtle message: those behind the Azadi March are also behind his call for another uprising.
At the time of Azadi March also, the Maulana was suspected of having a nod from powerful quarters traditionally involved in political engineering. As a matter of fact, political parties in the opposition had raised it in the Rahbar Committee meetings but their apprehensions were firmly rejected by the JUI. If the Azadi March was called off on the assurances extended by extraneous elements, the suspicion that it was also started at their behest has not been allayed.
The Maulana rightly said that the Azadi March did not achieve the desired results due to the indifference of the two major opposition parties, the PPP and the PML-N, who he said did not support it whole heartedly. The PPP’s reluctance stemmed from the overtly religious agenda of Azadi March on the one hand and the lingering suspicion about who was really behind the bid to replace one selected dispensation with another similarly selected dispensation, on the other.
The absence of support of major political parties in the Azadi March, however, has not deterred Maulana from again taking to the streets. Beginning from Karachi later this month, he plans a national convention in Islamabad on March 1 and a public meeting in Lahore on March 19 to bring together people on one platform to chase the ‘illegal and incompetent government’ out. He did not ask for the support of the PPP and the PML-N this time but kept the doors open by remarking in reply to a question that “he would talk to them if they approached him.”
To be fair to him, the Maulana has consistently rejected the assemblies as a product of rigged elections. So it should not come as a surprise if he has decided to pursue his goal through another mass movement. However, two questions beg answers: in announcing yet another mass uprising, has the Maulana been persuaded by some promises made to him again? Secondly, will it achieve the objective of pulling down the government?
The Maulana seems confident of success, even if other major political parties did not join hands with him because of reservations similar to the ones at the time of Azadi March. There are reasons for Maulana’s optimism.
First, the ruling coalition is rattled as never before. Hurriedly cobbled together between PTI, MQM, PML-Q, GDA and BNP-Mengal, the coalition today is under great strain. Without the allies on board, neither can the coalition survive nor Imran Khan as prime minister. Coalition journeys are always patchy but this one has lately hit roadblocks. As if by cue, all coalition partners have raised protesting voices blaming the PTI for not keeping its promises made at the time coalition formation. Committees formed by the government to address the issues have made no headway in smoothening ruffled feathers.
Although the PTI and Q-League were reported on Tuesday to have thrashed out their differences and renewed their partnership, the tiff is far from over. All coalitions extract a political price to keep them intact and this one could be no exception. The PTI must feel compelled to yield to the demands of partners to keep the coalition alive. This entails the risk of curtailing further the political space for the PTI which will shrink further, increasing discontent within the ruling party, intensifying infighting and thereby weakening the party even further.
The recent sacking of three ministers Shahram Tarakai, Atif Khan and Shakil Ahmad in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a stark reminder of the internal dissensions within the ruling party.
Two, the public discontent has also soared to new heights. The results of a December 2019 survey carried out by reputable French company IPSOS to gauge the opinion of ordinary citizens aged 18 to 65 are revealing. According to it, an overwhelming 79 percent of the respondent citizens expressed dissatisfaction with the direction taken by the state under the present dispensation. 80 percent of the people surveyed did not expect any improvement in their lifestyles during the next six months. This unsettling public perception of the PTI government could turn out to be a potent tool in the hands of Maulana and his backers.
Three, at the time of the Azadi March, the unresolved issue of army chief’s extension may have kept some establishment forces at bay from throwing their full weight behind the Maulana. That inhibition has now been removed.
Maulana Fazal is not known for entering into the boxing ring while unsure of win, even if partially. The Azadi March may not have succeeded in its ultimate objective but it did succeed in weakening Imran Khan and in raising the stature of Maulana as an opposition leader even while he was not in the Parliament. Revealing that promises indeed were made to him at the Azadi March has strengthened the perception that he is not playing a losing game. This perception might serve as a powerful catalyst for the success of the new mass movement.
The writer is a former senator and was a member of the Rahbar Committee during Azadi March
The Maulana did not name who made the promise in return for ending the sit-in. However, implying that the Punjab Assembly Speaker Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi was privy to it, he urged the latter “to disclose the secret he is carrying as amanat (trust),” referring to Elahi’s earlier remarks that the assurances given to Maulana was an ‘amanat’ with him. By asking Elahi to disclose it, the wily Maulana succeeded in conveying a subtle message: those behind the Azadi March are also behind his call for another uprising.
At the time of Azadi March also, the Maulana was suspected of having a nod from powerful quarters traditionally involved in political engineering. As a matter of fact, political parties in the opposition had raised it in the Rahbar Committee meetings but their apprehensions were firmly rejected by the JUI. If the Azadi March was called off on the assurances extended by extraneous elements, the suspicion that it was also started at their behest has not been allayed.
The Maulana rightly said that the Azadi March did not achieve the desired results due to the indifference of the two major opposition parties, the PPP and the PML-N, who he said did not support it whole heartedly. The PPP’s reluctance stemmed from the overtly religious agenda of Azadi March on the one hand and the lingering suspicion about who was really behind the bid to replace one selected dispensation with another similarly selected dispensation, on the other.
The absence of support of major political parties in the Azadi March, however, has not deterred Maulana from again taking to the streets. Beginning from Karachi later this month, he plans a national convention in Islamabad on March 1 and a public meeting in Lahore on March 19 to bring together people on one platform to chase the ‘illegal and incompetent government’ out. He did not ask for the support of the PPP and the PML-N this time but kept the doors open by remarking in reply to a question that “he would talk to them if they approached him.”
To be fair to him, the Maulana has consistently rejected the assemblies as a product of rigged elections. So it should not come as a surprise if he has decided to pursue his goal through another mass movement. However, two questions beg answers: in announcing yet another mass uprising, has the Maulana been persuaded by some promises made to him again? Secondly, will it achieve the objective of pulling down the government?
The Maulana seems confident of success, even if other major political parties did not join hands with him because of reservations similar to the ones at the time of Azadi March. There are reasons for Maulana’s optimism.
First, the ruling coalition is rattled as never before. Hurriedly cobbled together between PTI, MQM, PML-Q, GDA and BNP-Mengal, the coalition today is under great strain. Without the allies on board, neither can the coalition survive nor Imran Khan as prime minister. Coalition journeys are always patchy but this one has lately hit roadblocks. As if by cue, all coalition partners have raised protesting voices blaming the PTI for not keeping its promises made at the time coalition formation. Committees formed by the government to address the issues have made no headway in smoothening ruffled feathers.
Although the PTI and Q-League were reported on Tuesday to have thrashed out their differences and renewed their partnership, the tiff is far from over. All coalitions extract a political price to keep them intact and this one could be no exception. The PTI must feel compelled to yield to the demands of partners to keep the coalition alive. This entails the risk of curtailing further the political space for the PTI which will shrink further, increasing discontent within the ruling party, intensifying infighting and thereby weakening the party even further.
The recent sacking of three ministers Shahram Tarakai, Atif Khan and Shakil Ahmad in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a stark reminder of the internal dissensions within the ruling party.
Two, the public discontent has also soared to new heights. The results of a December 2019 survey carried out by reputable French company IPSOS to gauge the opinion of ordinary citizens aged 18 to 65 are revealing. According to it, an overwhelming 79 percent of the respondent citizens expressed dissatisfaction with the direction taken by the state under the present dispensation. 80 percent of the people surveyed did not expect any improvement in their lifestyles during the next six months. This unsettling public perception of the PTI government could turn out to be a potent tool in the hands of Maulana and his backers.
Three, at the time of the Azadi March, the unresolved issue of army chief’s extension may have kept some establishment forces at bay from throwing their full weight behind the Maulana. That inhibition has now been removed.
Maulana Fazal is not known for entering into the boxing ring while unsure of win, even if partially. The Azadi March may not have succeeded in its ultimate objective but it did succeed in weakening Imran Khan and in raising the stature of Maulana as an opposition leader even while he was not in the Parliament. Revealing that promises indeed were made to him at the Azadi March has strengthened the perception that he is not playing a losing game. This perception might serve as a powerful catalyst for the success of the new mass movement.
The writer is a former senator and was a member of the Rahbar Committee during Azadi March