For the past decade and a half, Pakistan's military planners and foreign policy strategists have thought about and planned for two developments in our region. The Indian Navy has been at the centre of both these developments.
Firstly, in July 2009, the Indian Navy inducted a submarine, the S-2, which has the capability to launch sea-based ballistic missiles. This was an event which saw India gain sea-based nuclear weapon capability. The military nuclearisation of the Indian Ocean deeply troubled Pakistan's military planners.
Secondly, India's strategic alignment with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states by signing defense and security agreements with several Gulf countries has potentially, in the words of certain Pakistani military experts, "has enhanced its geopolitical influence in the Middle East by increasing its strategic partnerships [with GCC countries] and economic clout, thereby bolstering its role as a key regional player."
The defense agreements signed between India and GCC states include a defense cooperation deal with Qatar; a maritime pact that provides access to Oman's Duqm port; joint naval exercises with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, a counter-terrorism arrangement with the UAE, and a commitment to fight terrorism and contribute to regional security apart from anti-piracy efforts in the Persian Gulf.
India's growing influence in the Persian Gulf region, long considered Pakistan's traditional area of influence, has introduced a new way of thinking among Pakistan's military planners and foreign policy strategists. There is now a strong body of opinion in Islamabad which favours Pakistan's foreign policy realignment and the corresponding closeness with the likes of Iran and Turkiye.
This does not have to mean quitting friendship with a GCC country. As one Pakistani military expert explained, "As India's influence in the GCC grows, Pakistan may need to adapt by enhancing diplomacy, diversifying economic partnerships, and increasing its involvement in regional security. Expanding trade, attracting investment, and engaging in high-level dialogues could help Pakistan maintain its strategic relevance in the region".
Threat perception
Pakistan's threat perception vis-a-vis India has occupied its military planners since its Independence from the British Raj. The first full-fledged war (involving all three arms of the military) that we fought with India was in 1965, and it primarily witnessed land battles in the plains of Punjab. However, at the same time, our coastline was also under threat from the much larger Indian Navy.
The Indian Navy, six times larger than its Pakistani counterpart, kept its ships docked for the remainder of the war, essentially ceding control of the Arabian Sea to Pakistan. This, coupled with the aerial dominance established by Pakistan's Air Force, significantly reduced India's ability to project power in the maritime domain during the war
The Pakistan Navy heroically defended the country's coastline by launching an impressive offensive operation during the war to neutralise the six times as large Indian naval platform operating in the larger Indian Ocean, has gone into regional military lore.
The threats to our maritime security are much more complicated today when compared with the threats we defended against in 1965. Keeping the country's sea lanes open remains the prime task of the Pakistan Navy. Keeping this military objective in view, the navy has evolved a strategy focused on developing the navy's inventory of anti-ship capability.
In the decades since 1965, India has greatly expanded its fleet in numbers and platforms. Its combat fleet currently consists of two aircraft carriers, 12 destroyers, 12 frigates, 18 corvettes, 16 conventional submarines, a nuclear ballistic submarine, and numerous patrol and support vessels. In all, the Indian Navy currently operates approximately 140 vessels. But India's naval ambitions are far higher. By 2035, the Indian Navy wants to achieve a strength of 175 warships.
In comparison, Pakistan Navy's combat fleet currently consists of nine frigates, four corvettes, eight missile boats, five conventional submarines, and three midget submarines. Pakistan has been beefing up its muscles in recent years to counter the increasing number of Indian warships and capabilities.
On the face of it, the entire range of surface platforms and submarines in India's naval inventory appears to be quite impressive. If it so wished, the Indian Navy could attempt to blockade Karachi and other Pakistani ports using an array of platforms, including the two aircraft carriers. In response, the Pakistan Navy has been building anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities.
"It is developing various anti-ship capabilities to effectively neutralise the Indian advantage of large numbers of warships and aircraft carriers," the expert said.
Contrary to popular belief, Indian surface platforms and submarines pose a more sinister threat to Pakistan's interests during peacetime than they would be able to in the event of a war. The world we are living in is witnessing the easy availability of modern weapons systems for rich countries. This was not the case In 1965, yet the Pakistan Navy performed heroic deeds to defend Karachi and other parts of the Pakistani coastline from Indian attacks.
The fleet approached Dwarka at midnight. The conditions were favourable, with calm seas, clear weather, and optimal radar readings. Upon arrival, the fleet assumed the necessary formation, and at midnight, the order to fire was given. Over the next 15 minutes, the ships rapidly bombarded the radar station and surrounding areas with precision
Pakistan Navy's heroics during the 1965 war
Let us explore what happened on the naval front in the 1965 war before discussing more intricate peacetime threats posed by the Indian Navy. The Indian Navy has the advantage of receiving the latest weapons systems and equipment from both Russia and the United States, which are apparently rivals but united in their efforts to establish India's hegemony in the region.
First, let's consider the heroic deeds of the Pakistan Navy during the 1965 war—in their own words—when the navy was far scarcely equipped that it is today and under American sanctions.
The Indo-Pak War of 1965 is often remembered for its fierce land battles in Kashmir and Punjab, but the Arabian Sea also played a critical role, although it was relatively quiet in comparison to other fronts.
The conflict officially escalated into a full-fledged war on September 6, 1965, when India opened a new front in Lahore in response to Pakistan's Operation Grand Slam in Kashmir. While the Indian Army concentrated on the land war, the Pakistan Navy was already preparing for a naval battle.
Recognising the potential threat posed by the Indian Navy, Pakistan had preemptively moved its assets. The centrepiece of Pakistan's naval defence was the submarine PNS Ghazi, which had already deployed to its wartime position near Bombay (now Mumbai) in the Arabian Sea. It patrolled Indian waters to keep a close eye on Indian warships — including the aircraft carrier Vikrant, which, at that time, had tightly packed in an area close to Indian shores but within touching distance of Pakistan. This proactive move forced the Indian Navy to keep its major warships, including its aircraft carrier, docked in Bombay for much of the conflict, significantly limiting India's naval presence in the Arabian Sea.
It was this bottling up of the Indian fleet by PNS Ghazi that enabled the Pakistan flotilla to move in and blast the Indian naval fortress of Dwarka.
As the land war raged on in the north, the Pakistan Navy sought to strike a blow to the Indian Navy by launching Operation Dwarka, codenamed Operation Somnath, on the night of September 8, 1965. This action was the Pakistan Navy's first engagement in any Indo-Pakistan wars.
Indian Navy's impressive acquisition of surface platforms and submarines in recent decades apparently poses a grave security threat to Pakistan's sea lanes and coastline. But it appears impressive on paper only. Pakistan's anti-access, area denial, and anti-ship capabilities are quite a match for the Indian naval inventory
The operation had three primary objectives:
- Lure the Indian fleet out: By attacking the coastal city of Dwarka in the Indian state of Gujarat, the Pakistan Navy hoped to provoke the Indian Navy to seek battle with our flotilla.
- Disrupt Indian air operations: Dwarka housed a radar station that played a critical role in the operations of the Indian Air Force, particularly in aiding enemy aircraft in attacking Karachi from the sea. Destroying this installation would reduce the effectiveness of Indian air raids on Pakistani cities.
- Divert Indian command's attention: The action would involve the Indian Navy in operations near her coast, thereby preventing her from planning any operations against our sea lines of communication.
The operation was executed by a fleet of seven ships: PNS Badr, PNS Alamgir, PNS Shahjahan, PNS Tippu Sultan, PNS Babur, PNS Jahangir, and PNS Khaibar. On the evening of September 7, a broadcast was issued to the fleet, raising morale and preparing them for the upcoming mission. The fleet approached Dwarka at midnight. The conditions were favourable, with calm seas, clear weather, and optimal radar readings. Upon arrival, the fleet assumed the necessary formation, and at midnight, the order to fire was given. Over the next 15 minutes, the ships rapidly bombarded the radar station and surrounding areas with precision. Each ship fired at least 50 rounds at the target, destroying the radar installation.
After completing the bombardment, the fleet returned to its waters early next morning, on September 8. Having destroyed the radar station at Dwarka, it limited the Indian Air Force's ability to conduct air raids on Karachi and effectively suspended further operations over the city. Indian casualties included the deaths of several sailors and officers stationed at the radar facility.
This bold and unexpected raid had a profound psychological impact on the Indian Navy. It was one of the first instances where a smaller navy had managed to penetrate the defences of a much larger one, complete its mission successfully, and return without suffering any significant losses. The Indian Navy, six times larger than its Pakistani counterpart, kept its ships docked for the remainder of the war, essentially ceding control of the Arabian Sea to Pakistan. This, coupled with the aerial dominance established by Pakistan's Air Force, significantly reduced India's ability to project power in the maritime domain during the war.
Threat to Pakistan's maritime and political interests
The Indian Navy's impressive acquisition of surface platforms and submarines in recent decades apparently poses a grave security threat to Pakistan's sea lanes and coastline. But it appears impressive on paper only. Pakistan's anti-access, area denial, and anti-ship capabilities are quite a match for the Indian naval inventory. The Indian Navy currently operates two aircraft carriers, the INS Vikramaditya and the INS Vikrant. Both are medium-sized, conventionally powered carriers and use ski-jump mechanisms. While the INS Vikramaditya is a secondhand vessel acquired from Russia after the refurbishment of the Admiral Gorshkov missile cruiser, the INS Vikrant has been produced domestically by India. Both carriers employ the MiG-29K carrier-borne fighter aircraft. In the near future, the Indian Navy is expected to acquire 26 Rafale-M fighter aircraft from France for carrier operations. India also plans to construct another aircraft carrier called INS Vishal.
Besides signing bilateral strategic agreements like BECA, COMCASA, and LEMOA, the United States also provides advanced naval systems to the Indian Navy. The Indian Navy already operates a fleet of the P-81 Poseidon Maritime Patrol Aircraft. The United States is providing six additional P-81 MPAS, 24 MH-60 Romeo anti-submarine warfare helicopters, and 15 MQ-09B Sea Guardian maritime drones to the Indian Navy. Indian Navy is also in the process of commissioning six Kalveri class diesel-electric submarines of French origin. A deal for three additional, improved Scorpene submarines is expected in the near future. As a follow-on project, codenamed Project 751, the Indian Navy plans to acquire six additional submarines with improved capabilities including Air Independent Propulsion Systems (AIPS). These submarines will be built in collaboration with domestic and foreign shipyards. However, the project is facing delays due to issues related to technology transfer and selection of proven AIP systems.
Pakistan Navy's key priorities for modernising and acquiring new equipment include enhancing its maritime domain awareness, surveillance, and intelligence gathering capabilities. This necessitates investments in advanced sensors, radars, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Additionally, the navy should focus on acquiring modern warships, submarines, and maritime patrol aircraft to ensure effective deterrence and response capabilities. Even though the Pakistan Navy is capable enough in this regard, it needs to be enhanced further due to geopolitical concerns. Furthermore, investments in cyber security and information technology are crucial to protect critical maritime infrastructure and counter emerging threats. By prioritising these areas, the Pakistan Navy can effectively meet the demands of the contemporary maritime security environment and safeguard Pakistan's maritime interests.
Perhaps the days when the Pakistani military provided security to the Gulf states and its rulers, which are always short of manpower, are gone. We are now facing a new political reality
Pakistan's military planners, however, consider two developments inherently destabilising for the region. First is India's increasing influence in the Persian Gulf region. Its aircraft carriers, other surface platforms and submarines dramatically increase its reach in the region, which poses a more potent threat to Pakistani interests in peacetime. Since 2009, Washington and key security players in the US have described India as a net security provider in the region. India's strategic partnership with the GCC is anchored in key sectors that deepen bilateral ties and mutual dependence. The energy sector is crucial, with the GCC supplying much of India's oil and gas while India provides a stable market for GCC hydrocarbons, reinforced by joint projects in refining and renewables. Trade and investment ties are robust, with the GCC becoming one of India's largest trading partners and a significant investor in Indian infrastructure and technology. Defence and security cooperation, including joint exercises and intelligence sharing, bolsters regional stability and enhances India's strategic presence in the Indian Ocean. Indian companies contribute significantly to GCC infrastructure projects, from urban development to transportation. Additionally, India's IT expertise supports the GCC's economic diversification, making this partnership essential for economic growth and regional security.
All of this undermines Pakistan's traditional foreign policy pillars. Since Independence, Pakistan's foreign policy has been based on developing strong relations with Muslim countries around the world, especially with the oil-rich Gulf states. We are now potentially looking at a situation in which we will be isolated in the region.
Military nuclearisation of the Indian Ocean and threat to regional security, peace
Historically, the Indian Navy has operated nuclear attack submarines leased from the Soviet Union. India is currently working on Project 75-A, which will help it build six nuclear attack submarines (SSN) domestically. In the coming years, the Indian Navy is planning to lease another nuclear attack submarine from Russia.
Indian Navy is the custodian of India's sea-based nuclear strike capability, and currently, it has only one nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) operational called the INS Arihant. A second SSBN, INS Arighat, is still in the trial phase. INS Arighat is expected to be commissioned by the end of this year. A third SSBN, designated as S4, was secretly launched on November 23, 2021. S4 and its sister boat will be bigger than the Arihant class SSBNs and will carry more tubes for submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). In total, India is expected to induct four SSBNs by 2030, and potentially more at later stages. As far as SLBMs are concerned, India is gradually increasing their range. A K-15 SLBM, with a maximum range of 1,500 kilometres (km), has been operationalised, while a K-4, with a range of 3,500 km, is in the final testing phase. The even longer-range K-5 SLBM and K-6 SLBM are expected to be deployed in the upcoming batch of India's SSBNs.
Pakistan has so far not operationalised its naval nuclear capability, though there have been many official and unofficial words which have come out from Pakistan's naval quarters which suggest that it is close to that. There are reports that the S-26 Hangor class submarines from China could be retrofitted to make them capable of delivering nuclear warheads, even if they are mounted on a cruise missile instead of a ballistic missile.
In this way, we are looking at a situation where India would use its newly acquired naval capability to bolster its strategic position in the Indian Ocean. After all, you don't need six nuclear submarines carrying ballistic missiles mounted with nuclear warheads to deter a much smaller military adversary like Pakistan. Nuclear weapons, the presence of aircraft carriers and many surface platforms are required to project power in the Indian Ocean on a large scale. India is helped in its efforts by the policies of oil-rich, friendly Gulf states, Washington and Russia. For the Gulf states, India is one of the largest customers of their crude, and who knows, perhaps as a net security provider at a later stage. Perhaps the days when the Pakistani military provided security to the Gulf states and its rulers, which are always short of manpower, are gone. We are now facing a new political reality.
The nuclearisation of the Indian Ocean would be another major security problem for Pakistan.
There are reports that Pakistan might be planning to introduce tactical nuclear weapons in its naval strategy in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. How all this will influence the strategic stability of the Indian Ocean is not very difficult to judge, especially when this region is already teeming with superpower rivalries with navies of all the major powers operating in its waters.