Pakistan has grown to become the world's fifth most populous nation, yet in terms of resources and socioeconomic infrastructure, it struggles to support its over 240 million population. What was once considered an asset has gone on to become the nuclear-armed country's Achilles heel, and the only logical solution to this ticking time bomb is to perhaps somehow reduce the fertility rate - or the birth rate - to manage the widening gap of demand and supply and improve the standard of living for current and future generations. Unfortunately, successive governments have failed to take meaningful action to prevent Pakistan's population from spiralling out of control. If this trend continues, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) projects that Pakistan's population could spike to 263 million by 2030, a mere six years away. The pressing question is: does Pakistan have the resources to adequately feed, clothe, educate, house and provide jobs to such a massive population? The answer, unfortunately, is an emphatic no.
As the world observes World Population Day, it is imperative for both the state and the civil society in Pakistan to realise that the only way to address this critical issue progressively and intelligently is to join forces. One effective approach would be to declare a 'population emergency' in the country and commit substantial funds and efforts to curbing population growth. While some countries have implemented harsh measures, such as limiting the number of children per family, more humane and effective examples in the region have achieved the same goal of planned families without infringing on personal rights.
The UNFPA highlights successful family planning programmes employed in Muslim-majority countries such as Turkey, Iran, and Bangladesh to great effect. UNFPA's research shows that these nations controlled their population growth because their governments fully supported policies aimed at reducing fertility rates, and ensured that information and family planning services were readily available to citizens. Pakistan, which initiated similar plans in the 1960s, can learn from these countries, which share many cultural and religious similarities.
The most critical factor in promoting family planning campaigns is the state's unwavering commitment at both the federal and provincial levels. Political parties, as well as religious leaders, need to support these initiatives. Given Pakistan's social structure, it is essential to involve the ulema (Islamic scholars), tribal elders, and other community leaders in implementing family planning programs across the country, from major cities to remote villages. Both men and women should be counselled about the available options. Moreover, successful programmes like the Lady Health Workers initiative can be utilised to provide reproductive health services and information to women.
With a fertility rate of 3.5 children per woman, the country faces challenges in providing adequate healthcare, education, and employment opportunities to its fast-growing population
On the policy front, the skewed weightage given to large populations in the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award formula should be reconsidered. Currently, provincial administrations may ignore rampant population growth to secure more funds, which undermines efforts to control the population. A successful family planning model is essential for a balanced future where all Pakistanis have access to food, water, and basic services.
The current situation
According to the 2023 digital census conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan's population was 242 million, with an annual growth rate of 2.55%. This marks an increase from the previous census in 2017, which recorded a growth rate of 2.4%.
Pakistan's rapidly growing population is putting immense pressure on its already strained resources. With a fertility rate of 3.5 children per woman, the country faces challenges in providing adequate healthcare, education, and employment opportunities to its fast-growing population. With some three million people entering the workforce annually, the dwindling 3% economic growth rate is insufficient to ensure good economic prospects for these people.
Learning from success stories
Muslim-majority countries such as Turkey, Iran, and Bangladesh offer valuable lessons in effective population control.
In Turkey, the government has realised the unsustainable growth of its population and has launched comprehensive family planning programmes since the 1960s, which included widespread education campaigns and easy access to contraceptives. As a result, Turkey's fertility rate dropped from 6.3 in 1960 to 2.1 in 2020.
Bangladesh's success can be attributed to strong government support, effective use of media for awareness campaigns, and the involvement of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in providing family planning services
Iran's success story began in the late 1980s when the Islamic revolutionary government reversed its pro-natalist policies and implemented an extensive family planning programme. This included premarital counselling, mandatory family planning education for couples, and widespread availability of contraceptives. As a result, Iran's fertility rate plummeted from 6.5 in 1985 to 2.1 in 2000.
Bangladesh, which was once part of Pakistan, has also made significant strides in reducing its fertility rate, which fell from 6.3 in 1975 - shortly after becoming independent - to 2.3 in 2020. The country's success can be attributed to strong government support, effective use of media for awareness campaigns, and the involvement of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in providing family planning services.
The cumulative result of lowering fertility rates in these countries has been an economic boom barring external factors.
Strategies for Pakistan
For Pakistan to emulate these successes, it needs to adopt a multifaceted approach that includes:
- Government commitment: The federal and provincial governments must prioritise population control and allocate sufficient funds to family planning programmes. This includes ensuring that reproductive health services are available and accessible to all citizens.
- Public awareness campaigns: Launching extensive education and awareness campaigns to inform the public about the benefits of smaller families and the various family planning methods available. These campaigns should target both men and women and address cultural and religious misconceptions about family planning.
- Involvement of religious and community leaders: Rather than targetting them and treating them as the enemy, engaging religious scholars, tribal elders, and other community leaders to support and promote family planning initiatives could prove fruitful. Their endorsement can help change societal attitudes and encourage acceptance of family planning practices.
- Improving healthcare infrastructure: Strengthening the healthcare system to provide quality reproductive health services, including prenatal and postnatal care, to reduce maternal and infant mortality rates. The Lady Health Workers programme can be expanded and strengthened to reach more women, especially in rural areas.
- Education and empowerment of women: Investing in women's education and empowerment has been proven to correlate with lower fertility rates. Educated women are more likely to make informed decisions about their reproductive health and are better equipped to contribute to the workforce.
- Policy reforms: Revising the NFC Award formula to discourage provinces from prioritising population growth for financial gains. Instead, the focus should be on sustainable development and equitable resource distribution.
Pakistan today stands at a critical juncture. The decisions made today regarding population control will determine the country's future. By learning from the successes of Turkey, Iran, and Bangladesh and committing to a comprehensive, multi-pronged approach, Pakistan can address its population crisis and pave the way for a more sustainable and prosperous future. It is time for the government, civil society, and community leaders to come together and take decisive action to secure a better quality of life for all Pakistanis.