There is only one thing certain in politics, and that is the uncertainty of it. It is known to all those who study politics that we operate under bounded rationality and incomplete information, so even the key players don’t have access to complete information while making important decisions. Hence any analysis at best is based on a few assumption taken from the history of the state and the behaviour of individuals as well as organisations.
Imran Khan’s government, it seems, no longer enjoys the same level of support from the military as it once did. And he also relied a bit too much on the non-elected elite to get things done for him. Now, with that support out of the equation (for now), he has been visiting allies, meeting disgruntled MNAs and doing all that which he should have done a year ago.
PML-Q knows well that it cannot survive in Punjab in the coming elections if it keeps on supporting the incumbent government. The ailing elder Chahudry had come to town to meet Maulana to tell him that they are ready to withdraw from the demand of CM-ship and would still support the opposition. The probability of them getting it though has increased since then.
MQM knows well that it needs to have something to show to its constituents and it can get more work done by becoming part of Sindh government than it can ever do by remaining part of the federal setup.
As for the PTI’s disgruntled MNAs, they have all been clear that now that they don’t get any phone calls, they would like to make it clear to the party leader as to where they stand – and would not support the government any further.
The desperation of IK is increasingly visible as he is visiting his coalition partners whom he never visited before. He doesn’t even know about their grievances as they used to be handled by a completely different set of people, who are now out of the equation. There is only one thing certain in politics, and that is the uncertainty of it. It is known to all those who study politics that we operate under bounded rationality and incomplete information even the key players don’t have access to complete information while making important decisions.
So, for all those asking, the informed guess is that Imran Khan’s government is going home. It no longer enjoys the same level of support from the military as it once did. And he also relied a bit too much on the non-elected elite to get things done for him. Now with that support out of the equation (for now), he has been visiting allies, meeting disgruntled MNAs and doing all that which he should have done a year ago.
It looks certain that he would fight till the end – and not just with the opposition, but even those whom he blames in his own mind for creating this crisis. The recent verbal diarrhea against EU states, asking the Speaker of Parliament to take an unconstitutional step, getting his people to come to D-Chowk a day before the vote and nabbing his own people – only go on to show that he knows the writing on the wall and wants to leave as a populist figure.
The long-term consequences would be the alienation of the upper-middle-class from politics, as the saviour didn’t deliver and they have been convinced beyond doubt that the rest of the politicians are all corrupt and their consciousness doesn’t allow them to support any of them.
If only the wall disappeared, then one can argue that he might be able to survive this. And the chances of that happening are at best slim. Moreover, those who had the ability to do this magically for him have also told him that there is a fault in his stars.
Still, politics is the art of the impossible!
Imran Khan’s government, it seems, no longer enjoys the same level of support from the military as it once did. And he also relied a bit too much on the non-elected elite to get things done for him. Now, with that support out of the equation (for now), he has been visiting allies, meeting disgruntled MNAs and doing all that which he should have done a year ago.
PML-Q knows well that it cannot survive in Punjab in the coming elections if it keeps on supporting the incumbent government. The ailing elder Chahudry had come to town to meet Maulana to tell him that they are ready to withdraw from the demand of CM-ship and would still support the opposition. The probability of them getting it though has increased since then.
MQM knows well that it needs to have something to show to its constituents and it can get more work done by becoming part of Sindh government than it can ever do by remaining part of the federal setup.
As for the PTI’s disgruntled MNAs, they have all been clear that now that they don’t get any phone calls, they would like to make it clear to the party leader as to where they stand – and would not support the government any further.
The desperation of IK is increasingly visible as he is visiting his coalition partners whom he never visited before. He doesn’t even know about their grievances as they used to be handled by a completely different set of people, who are now out of the equation. There is only one thing certain in politics, and that is the uncertainty of it. It is known to all those who study politics that we operate under bounded rationality and incomplete information even the key players don’t have access to complete information while making important decisions.
So, for all those asking, the informed guess is that Imran Khan’s government is going home. It no longer enjoys the same level of support from the military as it once did. And he also relied a bit too much on the non-elected elite to get things done for him. Now with that support out of the equation (for now), he has been visiting allies, meeting disgruntled MNAs and doing all that which he should have done a year ago.
It looks certain that he would fight till the end – and not just with the opposition, but even those whom he blames in his own mind for creating this crisis. The recent verbal diarrhea against EU states, asking the Speaker of Parliament to take an unconstitutional step, getting his people to come to D-Chowk a day before the vote and nabbing his own people – only go on to show that he knows the writing on the wall and wants to leave as a populist figure.
The long-term consequences would be the alienation of the upper-middle-class from politics, as the saviour didn’t deliver and they have been convinced beyond doubt that the rest of the politicians are all corrupt and their consciousness doesn’t allow them to support any of them.
If only the wall disappeared, then one can argue that he might be able to survive this. And the chances of that happening are at best slim. Moreover, those who had the ability to do this magically for him have also told him that there is a fault in his stars.
Still, politics is the art of the impossible!