The evolving geopolitical environment in the Middle East points towards the possibility of a wider conflict. What are the lessons for Pakistan’s strategic elite? The single most important lesson that reinforces the worldview of Pakistan’s military and strategic elite is that every state has to ensure its own security in the anarchic world system. Nobody - absolutely nobody - will come to your rescue when it comes to your national security.
Iran knew that the Israelis would not settle for bombing only its embassy in a third country, and that they will strike again. Responding to Israel’s first strike was a strategic imperative to establish and solidify Iranian conventional deterrence against further Israeli attacks. No one will come to Iran’s rescue.
The days when superpower rivalries compelled one or the other super power to come to the rescue of their client states during the Cold War are over. Israeli’s blatant aggressions have left no room for guessing games. The militarily powerful will browbeat the weaker states into submission. The so-called liberal values are no bar on the increasingly belligerent attitudes of militarily powerful states, which are armed to the teeth. Human rights, peace and non-violence have been reduced to little more than public relations tools of US diplomacy.
The days when superpower rivalries compelled one or the other super power to come to the rescue of their client states during the Cold War are over. Israeli’s blatant aggressions have left no room for guessing games.
Equally true in the case of Pakistan is the fact that Israel and Palestine are far off lands, and are of no strategic value or threat to the Pakistan state. In the rising tensions between Israel and Iran, Pakistan should have two concerns, an economically crippled and militarily destroyed Iran is not in Pakistan’s interests. We cannot afford the destruction of the Iranian state and society at the hands of the western political block and its Israeli allies. Furthermore, another refugee situation and another war next door could dramatically affect our economic prospects. Rising oil prices and the destruction of Iranian society would pose a security threat to Pakistan in case we see the destruction of the Iranian state.
The question arises - why did President Asif Ali Zardari hold a telephonic conversation with his Iranian counterpart three days before the Iranian counter attack on Israel? It is customary for the Presidents of two countries to exchange greetings on Eid Day. But they did discuss the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus?
“During the conversation, President Asif Ali Zardari offered his heartfelt condolences and sympathies with the Iranian leadership and the bereaved families who lost their dear ones in the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus,” reads the official press release issued by information ministry. President Zardari is no novice to diplomacy. I think he must have released the implications of including these sentences in the press release at a time when even kids were discussing the possibility of Iranian counter attack.
Any direct conflict between Iran and Israel will badly damage Pakistan’s economy. Our economy is still reeling from the impact of oil price rises in the wake of the Ukraine war. This will be a war next door.
Relatedly, it is a fact that the Israelis have been pacified about Pakistan’s strategic missile and nuclear program. Since it declared its nuclear status, Pakistan’s repeated clarifications that its strategic program is India-centric and coupled with some secret and some not so secret interactions between Pakistani and Israeli diplomats in multilateral forums have succeeded in pacifying Israeli’s fears about Pakistan’s strategic weapons programs. It is not surprising that Pakistani missiles are projected as India-centric weapons in the official discourse in Pakistan. Israel is deliberately kept out of the debate to assuage its insecurity vis-à-vis Pakistani nuclear delivery capabilities.
It is understood at the official level that any direct conflict between Iran and Israel will badly damage Pakistan’s economy. Our economy is still reeling from the impact of oil price rises in the wake of the Ukraine war. This will be a war next door. We don’t know yet whether it will remain an Iran-Israel conflict, and whether the Americans will actively side with Israel.
How will the Arab states respond? Any direct conflict between Israel and Iran will automatically drag states which lie between Israeli and Iranian territory — which includes Iraq, Jordon, Egypt and Syria and maybe even Saudi Arabia. Anything that hits either Israel or Iran will have to fly over the territories of these countries.
Washington’s direct military involvement in the region could mean the collapse of the Iranian state and society. This will have very serious implications for Pakistan. Firstly, chaotic situations as a result of crippled economies or destroyed military apparatus could have a regional spillover effect. Of course, the Iranians will go down fighting, which will add to the chaos. Muslim public opinion could galvanize more seriously than it did after Gaza’s destruction. Iran is a fully sovereign nation with a large population. Oil prices will skyrocket if the conflict escalates, given that so much of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan could face a refugee situation and an anarchic situation in Iran could provide sanctuaries to Baloch militant groups hiding in the Pak-Iran border areas.
The Pakistani military has a strong liaison with the security and political establishment of Iran—this is what the frequency of military officials’ interaction with the Iranians indicates. Pakistani public opinion was greatly perturbed over the destruction of Gaza. But the Pakistani military and political establishment ignored the anger displayed by Pakistani public opinion over the Gaza situation.
Washington’s direct military involvement in the region could mean the collapse of the Iranian state and society. This will have very serious implications for Pakistan.
There were two indications of the fact that the Pakistan establishment largely ignored the palpable anger in Pakistani society. COAS General Asim Munir visited Washington and held meetings with US defense officials in a cordial atmosphere at about the same time these same officials were managing the delivery of state-of-the-art weapons and ammunition to the Israeli occupation forces, with which they killed innocent Gazans. Secondly, American and British diplomats were exchanging pleasantries with Pakistani politicians and discussing their future course of action when Pakistani public opinion was at boiling point over what was happening in Gaza.
Our economy is so weak that it could not cope with the post-Ukraine war situation—a war in a far-off land. If a war ignites in our neighborhood, how our economy will respond is a basic question our political and economic elite should start pondering.
Pakistani public opinion would be the main concern of the Pakistani security establishment, and how it will respond if the Americans come down hard on the Iranians. Our public opinion and the moral pressure it will generate will not allow the Pakistani government to remain completely neutral in this conflict. At the very least, our officials will have to speak clearly at the diplomatic level over the possible destruction of the Iranian state and society. In case the America-Israel nexus plans to destroy Iran militarily, it will have huge consequences for Pakistan. Then we will have two countries, rather than just Afghanistan, in a largely destabilized state on our immediate borders. The consequences for Pakistan and the whole region are not difficult to contemplate.