The right to protest is one of the fundamental rights of people. Mill famously articulated that dissent should also be allowed even when the facts are clear because it helps to reiterate the truthfulness of the fact. This right has not always been seen as an absolute one in Pakistan, which has seen multiple military coups, and politicians have also used police brutality against their opponents, especially in the 1990s. The recent PTI protest was not an aberration from the past but a continuation of the way in which the state has handled such protests. The widely spread disinformation campaign aside, the use of force against one’s own people must be avoided under all circumstances in a country with even a semblance of democracy.
Let’s also look at what the PTI has gained as a result of its so-called ‘final call.’ Imran Khan continues to remain in jail, the internal rivalries in his party have increased manifold, and it caused the loss of precious lives, as party workers and law enforcement agencies both lost their men. The loss of life of LEAs and the 12 political workers being claimed by PTI cannot be condoned under any pretext, but there is a need for deeper introspection by Imran Khan after the event. It is frankly difficult to disentangle the actions of the party and him because, whether somebody likes it or not, PTI remains a one-man party. The voters vote for Imran, and they come out for him—that is the charismatic authority that he continues to hold.
After the failure of the ‘final call,’ it should be a worrying point for Imran and the party as a whole that there was no movement in the country other than KP. It is where the party enjoys considerable provincial resources, and it is an open secret that all resources are used to help make these protests successful. This apathy shown by people in other areas cannot be used to gauge the popularity of Imran, but it certainly calls into question the legitimacy of the transitory leadership of PTI. It is also important to understand that any political party that is unable to value its members and continues to keep draining its energy loses popularity in the eyes of its supporters.
There have been some intangible but important consequences of his untimely call and attempt to subdue the government too. There is now a renewed impression that Imran wants power even if it comes at the cost of some of his own workers or bloodshed. It is not to suggest that the impression is true but to say that it is not holding ground among the governing elite would also be untruthful. There is now renewed certainty in certain quarters that another Khan government would be an economic and foreign policy catastrophe for the country.
Despite being voted out in parliament—a perfect depiction of the art of the impossible at work—he doesn’t seem to understand that the only people who can make some way for him to get back into the mainstream are his opponent's political forces
Now come to the question of what comes next. There is no doubt that politics is the art of the impossible, but the logic for making the impossible work operates when both sides are willing to come to the table and make concessions. Politicians operate that way as they see the shifting realities of their time and make their own way out of it for their survival. You can only make changes, get your manifesto implemented, or provide relief to your people if you can survive during the tough periods. Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto both preferred to leave and go into exile rather than exploiting their support base and were able to make large comebacks in the politics of the country. They also learned the important lesson of talking to each other rather than talking to each other during that period.
The reality is that there is nothing to suggest as of now that Imran is willing to have a constructive dialogue with his political counterparts, and his insistence that he would only talk to the military is what has caused him the damage. Despite being voted out in parliament—a perfect depiction of the art of the impossible at work—he doesn’t seem to understand that the only people who can make some way for him to get back into the mainstream are his opponent's political forces.
Pakistan’s military also has its challenges in which it cannot get entangled too deeply in reconciliation politics which is what Imran wants, as it is actively fighting an insurgency in Balochistan and is also making sure that the TTP/FAK and its allied groups are kept in check in KP and border regions. Both of these fights require undivided attention because the goal of any counterinsurgency operation is to win over the local people, and that is where they are currently lacking. This is to be touched upon at some other time.
The military also has its grudge against Imran because he is their own created entity in politics who seems to have turned against them to the extent that he thinks going after military installations is fair game. The military continues to see May 9th as an attack not only on the buildings and infrastructure but also as an attempt to undermine the chain of command. This would not be tolerated by any military in the world, let alone by a professional force that controls the sixth-largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
Coming back to Imran, the way ahead is simple: disentangle your legal and political fights give up on populist self-defeating narratives, and talk with your political counterparts with whom he now has much more in common than he realises. Unless and until he does that, no final call would be enough. There is nothing to suggest that the wind is blowing the other way or that he is on a path back to office and those who suggest this are not familiar with the way power works in this country.