On the surface, this sounds implausible. He is in jail, facing several charges. If he is cleared on all those charges, the army may charge him in a military court. If convicted, he may face the death penalty.
In the last year of his tenure, Imran Khan thought he could interfere in the army’s internal affairs. He began to clash with the army chief and was ousted from office, proving once again that the army is Pakistan’s largest political party. So, what chance is there that they will free him?
Even then, the scenario is worth considering. Imran remains the most popular politician in Pakistan. His party members, running as independents, won the largest number of seats in the last election. His detention continues to get extensive coverage in the international media. His supporters are active on social media, and he has a large body of supporters in the US.
Despite being behind bars, he is being considered for the Chancellorship of Oxford University. He is issuing statements from jail, which are presumably being generated on his behalf by his supporters using Artificial Intelligence.
Imran is even thought to enjoy considerable support within the armed forces. He is beginning to change his tune toward the army and the US, both of which he had accused of being behind his ouster. He has said that he has no conflict with the army, only with the army chief. Imran is also making overtures toward the US.
In the US, a few intellectuals, including Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University and Mehdi Hasan, the renowned journalist, have been speaking out on his behalf.
So, it’s very possible that a compromise might be reached with the army, which may then release him. What is likely to happen if he returns to power?
The agenda he laid out in the run-up to the elections of 2018 remains unfinished: First, he promised to bring $200 billion of looted wealth on Day 1. That did not happen.
Second, he promised to create a “New Pakistan” which would combine the moral values of the first Islamic state in Medina, the democratic values of today’s Scandinavia, and the economic features of today’s China. Of course, that was a Utopian concept, an ideal that never came to pass.
Third, he had said that Pakistan would become so prosperous during his tenure that Arabs from the Gulf would start working in Pakistan, reversing the trend that began in the early seventies when Pakistanis went to the Gulf in search of employment. The reversal did not happen.
Fourth, he had promised to eliminate the deficits in the balance of trade and the national budget. Neither happened. In fact, both worsened.
Fifth, he said he would not go around the Gulf with a begging bowl, let alone borrow a dime from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The opposite happened. Pakistan’s international debt climbed. A desperate Imran Khan started playing musical chairs with his finance ministers, appointing not just two or three but four in his first term, to no avail.
Sixth, in a speech at the United Nations, he spoke against Islamophobia. But when it came to China’s maltreatment of its Uyghur population, he initially said it was China’s internal affair. Later, he denied that any maltreatment was happening.
Given Imran’s failures in the first term to resurrect the economy, what are the odds that he will fix it during a second term?
And seventh, he said that the army and the civilian government were on the same page.
There is little doubt that he was put into office by the army. The honeymoon lasted for nearly three years. And then he got too big for his boots. The army deposed him, thinking he would take a hint and bow out of politics. But he refused to be silenced and began holding mass rallies in all major cities of Pakistan. The rallies continued late into the night during the holy month of Ramazan.
Soon after he was deposed from office, especially after May 9, most of his senior advisers left him, with some issuing statements that not only had they left him, but they had also quit politics.
If he returns, will they rejoin him? Will he trust them, given their betrayal? Will he start anew with a new set of advisors? Where will he find them?
Of course, the army will put guard lanes around him. Will that leave him with enough freedom to not only think about what needs to be done but also to do it?
The economy is in a mess. Inflation is at an all-time high. The price of electricity has shot through the roof. People are installing solar panels on their roofs to lower their bills, and the utilities are doing their best to make that an unattractive investment for them. Given Imran’s failures in the first term to resurrect the economy, what are the odds that he will fix it during a second term?
The country’s politics are divisive, more so than they have been in a long time. Will he not seek revenge against his opponents, instead of reaching out to them to create a unified polity?
If he is serious about rectifying Islamophobia, he should speak out against Israel’s devastation of Palestine. But will he be willing to go against the potentates of the Arab world, who are silent on the matter? Will he be willing to challenge the US, which stands with Israel every step of the way.
If he returns to office, Imran Khan will realise that the challenges awaiting him are much worse than they were during his first term. He will fail to make a dent in Pakistan’s long-standing problems.
His support will begin to wither away as the truth dawns to his acolytes that he was not the messiah they had taken him to be. He will go down in history as a popular demagogue who made his name by promising to make Pakistan great again through grandstanding, lambasting his opponents, and counting crowd sizes.