The armed action by Hamas forces against Israel on 7 October 2023 had a significant impact on regional politics and the United States' influence in the Arab world. Israel's establishment of diplomatic ties with Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and the UAE has led to a notable improvement in relations with those countries. Saudi Arabia, the most populous Arab country that does not have diplomatic relations with Israel, was on the verge of establishing such ties. When Hamas launched an assault, Israel retaliated with military action, nearly finishing the process of normalisation.
Saudi Arabia has suspended the normalisation process due to its belief that Israel should concede to the establishment of a Palestinian state. In November 2023, Jordan recalled their ambassador from Israel, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed a visit to Morocco. A substantial number of Arabs have shown their opposition to Israel's Gaza actions and the ensuing humanitarian situation via protests. This demonstrates the significant disparity between Arab rulers and their increasing vocal citizenry.
To restore its reputation among Arab nations, the United States must demonstrate a greater capacity for understanding the experience of the Palestinians
Since 7 October, Arab opinions of the United States have transformed. Arab Barometer studies indicate that the Gaza crisis has diminished Arab public sentiment against the US. Before 7 October, a minimum of 33% of Arab participants had a favourable view of the United States, suggesting an increase in its popularity. Nevertheless, research conducted in five Arab countries (Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, and Morocco) after 7 October reveals a significant decline in the level of favourability towards Americans.
A Tunisian study, which included interviews conducted before and after 7 October, demonstrates this inclination. Before the Hamas action, 40% of Tunisians had a favourable view of the United States. By 27 October, which was three weeks after the commencement of Israel's military operations in Gaza, the share had decreased to 10%. The majority of countries saw Israel's actions as terrorism, with just a tiny minority condemning Hamas' actions.
The diminishing influence of the United States in Gaza has benefited China's image. The decline in the United States' favourability towards China seems to stem from dissatisfaction with US conduct rather than Chinese policies. Despite China's own human rights record, residents in Jordan and Lebanon regard it as more effective than the US in safeguarding rights and freedoms in the Middle East.
This shift in popular perception has significant ramifications. Arab regimes, irrespective of their autocratic nature, have difficulties ignoring the desires of their populace. This concept was highlighted by the 2019 Arab Spring uprisings and demonstrations, which ousted many Arab leaders. The increasing anti-US sentiment among Arab leaders might impede direct cooperation with the United States, hindering US efforts to resolve the Gaza problem, curb Iran's influence, and counter China's growing presence in the region.
However, the United States has reasons to be optimistic. Data from the Arab Barometer indicates a potential increase in favourability towards the United States. The United States' endorsement of Morocco in its territorial conflict with Western Sahara might account for its growing popularity in Morocco. Arabs respond with caution to US stances over regional issues.
To restore its reputation among Arab nations, the United States must demonstrate a greater capacity for understanding the experience of the Palestinians. The implementation of a two-state solution, the augmentation of humanitarian supplies, and the endorsement of a Gaza ceasefire may have an impact on public sentiment. Findings indicate that Arabs prioritise a comprehensive and equitable Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement above the departure of the US from the Middle East.
China has gained an unforeseen benefit from the events on 7 October. China’s gains in the Arab world have undermined the US image in the Arab world. To begin regaining popular trust in the region, the United States will have to reassess its Middle East strategy: by prioritising Palestinian rights and not just Israel's security.