The sands keep shifting in the unfortunately turbulent region of the Middle East. The recent development of Iran's hypersonic ballistic missile “Fatah”, which it claims can penetrate any defence system in the world, could point towards a rather noteworthy shift in the balance of power in the region. The sophisticated missile campaign launched by Iran and its proxies during the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict is not the first time that Israel has come under such an attack, and understandably as a precaution, they have one of the best anti-missile defense systems in the world. However, the recent development of Iran’s hypersonic missiles has claimed to substantially increase its hard-power capabilities, posing as an undeniable threat to Israeli Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome missile defense systems. It is pertinent to explore the implications of these advancements on the region and its ongoing wars. This track of development taken by Iran may prove a significant stepping stone in the regional power struggle.
Technological Challenges
There are three phases of a ballistic missile’s journey towards its target: Boost Phase, Midcourse Phase, and Terminal Phase. The Israeli defense system is multilayered, with different components serving different purposes and intercepting warheads during different phases. These include the Arrow 3 and 2, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome.
Intercepting hypersonic missiles is a complicated task, due to their high speed and mid-flight maneuvering ability. Israel’s missile defence system can counter hypersonic missiles, but the problem arises if Iran decides to overwhelm the defense systems, sending hundreds of hypersonic missiles. The Arrow 3 won’t be able to counter them in their mid-course phase. Then the responsibility would fall on the Arrow 2, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome to intercept these hypersonic missiles during their terminal phase, which is categorically more difficult to achieve.
Iran’s Missile Doctrine is rooted in “Only retaliation and no first use policy”. To compensate for that Iran has established a sophisticated network of proxies (the “ring of fire”) that surrounds Israel. Any attack from these proxies fulfills Iran’s motives and also provides plausible deniability
Economic Challenges
Because there is a lack of clarity regarding Iran’s attack on October 1st, theoretically speaking, let’s assume that Iran used only the Fatah-1 missile (which cost Iran $1 million to produce), and only the Arrow 3 and 2 were used to intercept the incoming missiles, then one intercepting Arrow 3 and Arrow 2 missile costs approximately $2 and $3 million respectively. It is widely agreed that the October attack involved approximately 200 Iranian missiles (which would cost them $200 million), and assuming Israel’s best-case scenario is that it intercepted all the missiles successfully (costing between $400-600 million), Iran is clearly at a financial advantage here. Moreover, Israel’s dependence on the US for funding could push the former to develop cheaper options.
What Do Hypersonic Missiles Mean for The Ring of Fire?
Iran’s Missile Doctrine is rooted in “Only retaliation and no first use policy”. To compensate for that Iran has established a sophisticated network of proxies (the “ring of fire”) that surrounds Israel. Any attack from these proxies fulfills Iran’s motives and also provides plausible deniability. This network of proxies rely on missile warfare and the inclusion of hypersonic missiles in their arsenal might be a game changer. But the extent of their effectiveness depends on the distance from which the hypersonic missile is going to be launched (which has to be more than 300km), making only Iraq and Yemen the two countries from which Iran has a practical advantage of using hypersonic missiles.
Options for Israel
Being a state with hostile neighbors, Israel has to rely on the maximisation of its security in response to the hypersonic threat. It could attempt to strategically eliminate Iran’s proxies which are feasible for a hypersonic missile attack. Directly attacking on components of the Ring of Fire can reduce the pressure on Israeli defense systems, reducing the chances of overwhelming them. Israeli firms have partnered with the American Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and together they are working towards creating a system of satellite-based sensors and ground radars to counter the hypersonic threats in space. Israel is also working towards increasing its presence in space by creating a constellation of satellites. The Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) is in progress, that will intercept hypersonic missiles during their glide phase. Arrow 4 (both an endo and exo-atmospheric system) will replace Arrow 2. The Iron Beam High Energy Laser Weapon System (HELWS), a 100kW laser that is expected to become operational in 2025, will significantly reduce the cost of interception for Israel.
Both countries seem to be in a race against the other’s military/technological advancement, as the entire region eyes the ongoing conflict among these regional giants over Palestine. In a broader context, these developments underscore the ongoing race for continuous advancements in defense technologies to address emerging threats in an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.