The year 2024 in South Asia will lead to formidable changes, transforming the political landscape of the region. With elections in Bangladesh on January 7 having led to an Awami League victory, and polls in Pakistan expected to take place on February 8, India - the self-described largest democracy of the world - will also undergo a similar exercise in April and May of 2024.
By securing 223 seats out of 298 in the parliament in what was a one-sided election, the Awami League is now assuming power for the fourth term. The January 7 elections in Bangladesh witnessed large scale pre-poll rigging, boycott of the polls by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), a low voter turnout and state suppression against opposition parties and large-scale fraud carried out by the Sheikh Hasina regime. The United States and Britain expressed their reservations over the fairness and transparency of the January 7 elections whereas, India, Russia and China congratulated Sheikh Hasina for securing a landslide victory.
The pattern of political manipulation, fraud and state coercion in Bangladesh is now to set to be repeated in Pakistan and India where elections are due in February, April and May. What is appalling in Bangladesh’s case is the erosion of democracy, for which the people of Bangladesh have given enormous sacrifices during the time the state was a part of Pakistan. But there is also historical evidence to prove that the Awami League has a track record of election manipulation and coercion ever since the party’s Pakistan days.
After coming to power in independent Bangladesh, the father of the nation Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was denied his right to become Prime Minister of Pakistan following December 1970 elections in which Awami League emerged as a majority party, resorted to dictatorial and authoritarian governance when he imposed an emergency and banned all political parties in early 1975. His daughter Sheikh Hasina has followed her father’s footsteps by being intolerant to the opposition and using state institutions like the bureaucracy, judiciary and security agencies to perpetuate her rule and target BNP. She has also exerted pressure on media and civil society to support her policies.
How will the erosion of democracy in Bangladesh impact Pakistan and India? Why are we seeing a pattern of authoritarian political culture emerge in South Asia, and how is democracy under threat in the three countries? Is the space for democracy in South Asia really shrinking?
What is common in Bangladesh and Pakistan is denying political space to opposition and using state power to seek electoral legitimacy.
The world’s biggest democracy is India, but within India, one can also observe that the Modi regime is using state power to tame the opposition and target religious minorities, particularly Muslims. Pakistan, since its inception as an independent country, has failed to strengthen democracy and is a hostage to multiple mafias since the early 1950s, who have denied space for democracy and imposed martial law in 1958, 1969, 1977 and military rule in 1999. One can argue that authoritarian culture in Pakistan, which has state patronage, got its inspiration from Bangladesh and India where Awami League and Bharatiya Janata Party patronized a culture of intolerance vis-à-vis dissent, for the sake of perpetuation of their rule. Silencing political opposition, media, civil society and using state organs like the bureaucracy, judiciary and security agencies for manipulating elections has become a stark reality.
What is common in Bangladesh and Pakistan is denying political space to opposition and using state power to seek electoral legitimacy. While the regime of Sheikh Hasina abolished the provision of caretaker government for holding elections in 2013, in Pakistan, the caretaker set-up is blamed for its partisan, manipulative and coercive behavior. India is not far off in following the authoritarian model of Pakistan and Bangladesh, but the Modi regime, despite all its strongarm tactics will still find it difficult to completely deny democratic space to opposition parties. Shrinking democratic space in South Asia, as reflected in the authoritarian tendencies in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka needs to be analyzed from three angles.
First, for a long time, India was perceived as a role model in democratic and political pluralism. Despite its fault lines, like the surge of communal schisms and marginalization of religious minorities, India was admired as a democracy in the third world till the time Hindu nationalism began to influence political discourse and reclaimed the narrative, which revolves around reclaiming the glory of the Hindu religion.
From securing merely 3 seats in the November 1984 general elections in India to 303 seats in the Lok Sabha (upper house of parliament) in 2019, BJP has negatively transformed so-called democratic culture of India. Through its role in the demolition of Babri Mosque in December 1992, and the carnage that Muslims were subjected to in the Gujarat riots in February 2002, BJP assumed a notorious position in the Indian political scene when during the second term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it openly used the ‘Hindu card’; targeted religious minorities like Muslims, Christians and Sikhs, and unleashed a reign of terror against the Muslim population of occupied Jammu & Kashmir after revoking Article 370 of the Indian constitution on August 5, 2019. How the Modi regime has populated the judiciary, bureaucracy and security agencies with people adhering to the BJP Hindutva ideology is not a secret to anyone.
Once India transforms into a Hindu ethno-state during the third (expected) Modi term, the world’s largest democracy will effectively have one-party rule, projecting the glory of Hindu pride and power.
When the secular and democratic state of India gradually drifted to Hindu nationalism and extremism, the die was cast. Now, Narendra Modi is seeking a third consecutive term in office and despite a proven track record of patronizing Hindu nationalism, he is confident in his return to power in the April/May 2024 general elections, because the pillars of the state - like the bureaucracy, judiciary and security agencies seem to have been compromised, whereas, media and civil society also capitulate either because of coercion or patronage. If the BJP gets a third term, one can surely expect an end to Indian democracy and secularism, as the ultimate mission of the Modi regime is to transform India into a fully blown Hindu ethno-state. Once it gets a two-third majority in the Lok Sabha elections, it will feel emboldened to make the necessary changes in the Indian constitution by deleting the clause on secularism.
Second, once India transforms into a Hindu ethno-state during the third (expected) Modi term, the world’s largest democracy will effectively have one-party rule, projecting the glory of Hindu pride and power. Several times over, Narendra Modi has made a point that India needs to undo 1,000 years of slavery: 800 years of Muslim and 200 years of British rule. With such a mindset, India will become a ‘role model’ for Hindu nationalism, resembling the German Third Reich under Adolf Hitler.
As far as Pakistan is concerned, it has a history of denying democracy, political pluralism and rule of law under the patronage of military, bureaucratic, and feudal elites. The prevailing political schisms in Pakistan, when the country is on the verge of the February 8 general elections, proves that the use of force, as was evident during December 1964 elections, will be deployed again. By holding sham elections, the Ayub regime defeated popular leader Fatima Jinnah and caused irreparable damage to the unity and integrity of the country, which ultimately led to the disintegration of Pakistan in December 1971.
Those who wield power in Pakistan today have no regard or concern for the 250 million people of the country, and are only focusing on bringing PML (N) supremo Nawaz Sharif back into power by holding another sham election. From any standpoint, the role of the judiciary, bureaucracy and the generals in denying the PTI and its Chairman Imran Khan a level playing field is clear. The country will pay a heavy price for the parochial vision and shortsightedness of those wielding power today. The country’s economy will suffer even further, along with more poor governance and the crumbling of the rule of law. A lack of focus on issues - like a surge in inflation, the absence of the rule of law, bad governance and foreign policy challenges means that state actors are least interested on matters which threaten the very survival of Pakistan.
When almost all countries in South Asia are under the shadow of an authoritarian culture, one can expect the democratic space to shrink further, because media and civil society, the two pillars of protecting human rights and political freedoms, tend to lose their influence during periods of democratic backsliding.
The lack of democratic space is obvious in Afghanistan, where the Taliban took power following the American withdrawal in August 2021. They have imposed their draconian rule under the name of Shari’a. Sri Lanka experienced worst the economic meltdown and misuse of power by Rajapaksa clan, whose legacy still haunts Colombo.
When almost all countries in South Asia are under the shadow of an authoritarian culture, one can expect the democratic space to shrink further, because media and civil society, the two pillars of protecting human rights and political freedoms, tend to lose their influence during periods of democratic backsliding.
Finally, India, which is the core of South Asia, has a major responsibility to save democracy and political pluralism by defeating the forces of fanatic Hindu supremacy. In this regard, the elections due in April/May are critical because if BJP and Shiv Sena again reach the corridors of power, the third consecutive BJP term will have a disastrous, near irreversible impact on democracy in South Asia.
It is yet to be seen how the year 2024 will turn out for democracy, political freedoms, the preservation of human rights and the rule of law in South Asia. Ground realities reflect growing threats and dangers for democracy, which will further strengthen the forces of retrogression and democratic backsliding. It is time, setting aside contentious issues, that democratic forces unite and save the region from creeping authoritarianism.