Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Adiyala are watching Washington D.C. with bated breath. This Monday, as Donald Trump is sworn in as President, it all changes over there. But does it change over here too?
Imran Khan would like nothing more. His party people say they are deeply connected to the Trump administration. They also say this is an actionable connection, not merely a braggable one. They expect this card will play out with great effect.
The government is wary but not necessarily worried. Key decision-makers admit grudgingly they underestimated the reach and influence of Khan’s supporters in the US. They say they have taken countermeasures to blunt the PTI offensive inside the DC Beltway. The Richard Grenell social media bombardment – which created panic in official quarters - has quietened in the last few weeks. Some inside the Red Zone are heartened. But Trump is mercurial. So yes, fingers are crossed.
But after the fresh verdict against Khan, swords are also crossed. The 190 million pounds sentencing has taken a total of zero people by surprise. But it has also done something else. This is arguably the only case against the former prime minister who has some legs to stand on. The review petition in the Islamabad High Court may not be a slam dunk like the previous cases, especially the silly Iddat one. The two new judges of the Islamabad High Court are scheduled to take oath perhaps two days after Trump does. The formation of the IHC bench to hear this review petition will be one of the most closely watched and commented-on developments.
If the government can survive these twin threats to release Khan, it may have a fairly smooth journey ahead in the coming months
The government appears smug.
As it turns out, the reasons are not hard to fathom. It knows PTI has played all its cards and still come up short. It feels empowered by the buoyant stability of the economy. It is strengthened by the firmness of the one-page relationship with the establishment. It also knows that its team is talking to the PTI from a position of relative strength, legitimacy issues notwithstanding. There is, after all, some substance to its smugness.
There is one more thing. The hype about PTI chairman Barrister Gohar’s meeting with Army Chief General Asim Munir, as per Red Zone insiders, is less than what meets the eye. The post-election set-up, they say, remains unchanged in its fundamental version of reality. Letting off a bit of steam amounts to essentially just that, and nothing more.
In fact, there is a renewed effort to ensure the unchangeability of the present reality. The aim is to combine economic recovery with enforced political stability and obtain an outcome that defines a new normal in less-than-normal times.
Fair enough.
But this requires two prerequisites. First, IHC does not let off Khan. Second, Trump does not let off Khan.
Both scenarios require both sides to whip out trump cards. Legal, political, diplomatic, or whatever, the wielder of the trump card may trump the other in a game that, for now, appears one-sided. The weight of the system has bent the shape of reality in its favour. It can uneasily bend the other way if Khan can find his trump card.
This is why quiet moves are underway inside the Red Zone to keep reality bent the way it is. Details are few and short – for now – but the system is in action mode. The talks in process between the government and PTI are part of this larger plan. Come Monday, and the Trump swearing-in, the game kicks into higher gear.
It's like going from the nets onto the pitch. The ball swings more, spins more, the outfield is faster, and the roar of the crowd can rattle you.
For the PTI, it’s a steep run chase. It has to get a strong case overturned. Party leaders’ hyperbole aside, the merits of the latest verdict will speak loudly in the IHC review. On the Trump front, Khan’s party is up against the institutional weight of inter-state relations. Trump may be mercurial, but he’s not crazy.
If the government can survive these twin threats to release Khan, it may have a fairly smooth journey ahead in the coming months. Perhaps even longer. But if Khan finds his trump card – on Constitution Avenue or Pennsylvania Avenue - all bets are off.