Smell the coffee

Smell the coffee
We will never go to the IMF, thundered Imran Khan endlessly during his “dharna” days when he was berating PMLN’s Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar, for screwing up the country’s finances and running to the IMF to save his skin. Much the same stance was adopted by Mr Dar himself when he was breathing down the neck of his predecessor in the PPP government. So what’s the big deal this time round if the PTI’s Finance Minister, Asad Umar, has approached the IMF for a bailout?  After all, most Pakistan governments, civil and military, have consistently failed to balance their budgets and been compelled to approach the IMF no less than 22 times since 1958 for financial help covering various standby, structural adjustment and extended credit facilities at significantly concessional borrowing terms.

​The problem is not that the PTI government is running to the IMF in difficult times inherited from the previous government. The problem is the confusion in its policy related to borrowing money. Asad Umar defiantly stood up in both houses of parliament earlier to denounce any thought of approaching the IMF, then abruptly did a U-Turn and opened negotiations with the Fund. This was dampened by news that the PM wasn’t happy with his finance minister’s decision. Now comes another statement from Imran Khan that, despite a scheduled meeting with the Fund early next month in Islamabad, the PTI government is still casting about for funds from “friendly” governments so that it can avoid the IMF.

​After he “won” the last general elections, Imran Khan was told to get ready to visit Saudi Arabia and China and pay traditional obeisance to their leaders so that their traditional concessions could be extended to Pakistan in return. But Mr Khan demurred. He was approached again for his itinerary. This time he said he had decided not to visit any country, not even make the yearly outing to the UN in September, for a couple of months. Since no explanations were offered – it was assumed the First Lady had advised the PM accordingly – there was a scramble to reassure both China and Saudi Arabia that the new PM was busy tackling internal matters of great urgency and would undertake trips shortly. In due course, Imran Khan buckled under pressure and made the trip to Riyadh, but returned with no more than a promise of due consideration. He is now banking on the same friendly countries to come to his aid and shore up the State Bank’s failing forex reserves before the meeting with the IMF early November. Meanwhile, this policy confusion has wrought havoc in the stock and money markets instead of anchoring confidence in the outlook for the economy.

​The First Lady’s advice in the appointment of the Punjab chief minister hasn’t helped instill confidence in the ability or willingness of Imran Khan to nominate the right man for the right job. Wags say the most critical province is now being run by several CMs: Mr Usman Buzdar, the De Jure CM; the Punjab Governor, Mohammad Sarwar, the De Facto CM; Aleem Khan, the CM-in-Waiting; Jehangir Tareen, the CM Thwarted; and the PM himself via his Principal Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Secretariat. In the background lurks an intel agency’s Station Commander whose full-time job is firefighting.

Indeed, the appointment of several un-merited cronies to positions of public authority, coupled with inexplicable transfers, posting, sackings and resignations of civil servants and police officers, has confounded matters. One resignation in particular – that of ex-IGP KP Nasir Durrani who was proudly proclaimed by Imran Khan as the architect of beneficial police reforms in KP and appointed as the head of a task force to reform Punjab police left protesting Islamabad’s interference in Punjab police matters – has derailed the proposed reform agenda.

Imran Khan says his government shouldn’t be judged on the basis of its “performance” in the first few months in office. Why not, we ask. Both the quality of the decisions and the way in which these are taken are rightful subjects of media scrutiny. If a new government stumbles from pillar to post, taking whimsical and sometimes laughable decisions and then about turns, how does it hope to instill confidence in its ability to rule the country in a better manner than its predecessors? For how long can the public be expected to clutch at empty promises and wild expectations in support of Imran Khan’s quest for Naya Pakistan?

The results of the recent bye-elections in which the ruling PTI fared badly should be sufficient to give Imran Khan an idea of the public mood. A sitting party always has a big edge in such matters. He should never lose sight of the fact that his support base was artificially pumped up in the last elections and is not a true reflection of the mood of the people. If the road to hell is paved with good intentions, now is the time to wake up and smell the coffee.

Najam Aziz Sethi is a Pakistani journalist, businessman who is also the founder of The Friday Times and Vanguard Books. Previously, as an administrator, he served as Chairman of Pakistan Cricket Board, caretaker Federal Minister of Pakistan and Chief Minister of Punjab, Pakistan.