The world is in disbelief upon learning of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's demise after his chopper crashed while returning from Azerbaijan, where he attended the inauguration ceremony of a hydroelectric power project.
Despite the unofficial ban on 'X' (formerly known as Twitter), people in Pakistan circumvented the ban and were glued to their screens to gleam the latest information about the incident. It was hard for many to believe that the Iranian President, who had visited Islamabad and some other cities just a few days ago, with his pictures still plastered on the walls of the federal capital, was now being flashed on television screens with the headline that he was no more.
Initially, there was no clarity regarding the crash. Some sources even claimed that the President's chopper had simply performed a hard landing due to poor weather conditions and that contact had been established with the crew. With time, as we learnt about the remoteness of the chopper's location and the difficult terrain and problems in reaching the spot, the chances of their survival seemed slim. By the time the sun rose on Monday, May 20, the Iranian state media had announced that the Iranian President, the Iranian foreign minister, and other passengers had perished.
Since then, social media platforms, including X, Facebook, and Instagram, have been abuzz with rumours that the crash was the result of a possible assassination attempt by Mossad or other foreign agencies that are hostile towards Iran. Although no official statement has been issued thus far by the Iranian foreign office or any official spokesperson from Iran, there are lots of questions to be answered. Raisi was not just the President of Iran, he was widely considered to be the spiritual successor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. What is more curious is how, within a week, there has been an assassination attempt on the life of Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico and the fatal helicopter crash of Iran's President Raisi. What a coincidence that these two incidents involved two prominent politicians who have challenged the global "rules-based order." Why, in a convoy of three choppers, it was the Iranian President's chopper that apparently developed a technical fault and crashed. If the weather conditions were foggy and rainy, why would the Iranian President fly back in a hurry to Iran?
One more possible Iranian response could be the same attempt on any Israeli high-value target to avoid an all-out war against Israel, but chances of such a response are very limited due to the technological advantage of the Israeli forces
The Israeli secret service, Mossad, has a history of carrying out assassinations against its enemies in different Middle Eastern countries. Roughly a month ago, for the first time in Iran-Israel history, Iran itself attacked Israeli soil after the latter was believed to have launched an attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Many experts were writing that Israel almost let the Iranian attack go unanswered. And while Israel is believed to have launched a retaliatory strike, an attack on Raisi's chopper could be a calculated retaliation by Israel. If a missile struck the chopper, the remains of the missile used could be recovered around the chopper's wreckage, among other tell-tale signs.
If Iran and its allies reach the conclusion that this was an assassination attempt carried out against Iran by its traditional rivals, it will sprinkle fuel atop the burning Middle East. Iran will then go to war against Israel. Congratulations then to Benjamin Netanyahu; he would have finally succeeded in dragging the US into a direct conflict with Iran because Tehran would retaliate if it publicly declared the incident an assassination. And if Iran goes to war, China and Russia will fully support Iran— at least by providing it with modern weaponry and technology. US involvement in any war in the region will escalate very quickly into a world war. One more possible Iranian response could be the same attempt on any Israeli high-value target to avoid an all-out war against Israel, but chances of such a response are very limited due to the technological advantage of the Israeli forces.
In the event of a full-scale war, the most interesting thing to observe will be the role of the Arab states. A month ago, the Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel was collectively repulsed by the USA, the UK, and Jordan, while some Arab countries helped them unofficially.
The foreign policy of Pakistan — the sole nuclear-powered Muslim state — is quite passive nowadays due to its internal, unstable economic conditions. Pakistan will have to strike a balance between its neighbour Iran and its non-NATO ally and economic partner, the USA, which is no easy task by any means.
Pakistan must prepare for a chaotic region in the near future because it seems matters will only escalate, and Pakistan will find itself in the backyard of this battleground.