The illegitimate political system thrust upon Pakistan last year, with the fig leaf of a “selected” prime minister, has come a cropper. This was a chronicle foretold by some political analysts. But, understandably enough, few dared to challenge the Man on Horseback. There are too many ethnic, regional, sub-nationalist, class, sectarian, institutional and ideological interests competing for a slice of Pakistan’s political economy to blithely accept such an authoritarian formula. It was only a matter of time before the contradictions, tensions and pressures of these competing interests rose to the surface and exposed the brittle nature of the political engineering carried out by the Miltablishment. The truth is that the complex crises facing Pakistan – economic, constitutional and regional – cannot be faced without a consensual national narrative at home. Consider the emerging fissures in the system.
The popularity of the mainstream PMLN that has been excluded from office in Islamabad and Lahore has risen in direct proportion to the failure of the PTI to “deliver”, no less than the plummeting credibility of certain state institutions to deliver “insaf” to Nawaz Sharif whether through the courts or through the NAB. Indeed, contradictions have arisen between the courts and NAB, with the former trying to protect its credibility by bending before the Bar while pointing an accusatory finger at NAB for discriminating between government and opposition. The recent conduct of the Supreme Court under CJP Asif Khosa to redress the imbalance, albeit belatedly, as evidenced in the latest developments in the Qazi Faez Isa case, should not be missed.
Much the same may be said of the Chief Election Commissioner, a retired high court judge, who has finally plucked up the courage to call a spade a spade. For obvious reasons, the CEC may not be keen to speed up the disqualification petitions against the “selected” prime minister, Imran Khan, but he has put his foot down on two important cases that have a direct bearing on political developments in Pakistan: he has refused to accept the PM’s two nominees on the ECP because these have not been sanctioned via due constitutional process; and he has allowed Mariam Nawaz Sharif to retain her Vice-Presidency of the PMLN.
Much the same sort of tremors are beginning to be felt in the media. The independent press, which had succumbed to junta pressure, is beginning to anticipate the prospect of breathing freely again. Proof of a halting revival comes from two opposite developments: a significant gang of “journalists” who had sold their souls to Imran Khan, or simply couldn’t resist the indiscreet charm of the Miltablishment, have suddenly taken a U-Turn and launched a barrage of criticism against the cult hero for whom they voted. Alarmed, the PTI government is trying to rush through emergency legislation to establish anti-media, speedy Tribunals, an effort that is likely to be fiercely resisted by the opposition in the Senate no less than by the media in the courts.
Cracks are also beginning to appear in the upper echelons of the Miltablishment. The loudest whisper is that not everyone is happy with the PM’s decision to extend the tenure of the army chief. And the more the political model fails to deliver, the more its chief architects and beneficiaries come under critical scrutiny. Indeed, the fact that the Miltablishment is facing a loss of credibility, trust and legitimacy in its bastion of Punjab whence its rank and file is largely recruited is cause for serious concern amongst its supporters. The fact that the chief minister of Punjab, a dubious selection, is the butt of both crude jokes and frustrated rage, is sufficient to reinforce the perception of unremitting, abject failure.
The continuing mismanagement of the economy and its ensuing hardships, in the backdrop of developing crises in relations with India, Saudi Arabia, Iran, America and Afghanistan, is giving sleepless nights to all and sundry.
Now Maulana Fazal ur Rahman has announced a million-man march on Islamabad. Nawaz Sharif is on board even if Asif Zardari is still hedging his bets. At the minimum, this will destabilize the government and set back its reform agenda. Maximally, it may spur a change of horses mid-stream to salvage the situation.
The most important factor in the dynamics of success and failure of any political strategy is popular perception of its strengths and weaknesses. Until recently, the Miltablishment was perceived to be ubiquitous, omnipotent and infallible; the combined opposition was imagined as weak, vacillating and divided; and the selected prime minister was lauded for his inspirational leadership qualities. But all that has, by turns, rapidly evaporated. The legitimacy of the political engineering has been corroded by the arrogance, incompetence, bias and unaccountability of its main practitioners in the organs of the state while the credibility and strength of the opposing forces, inspired by the courage and resilience of Nawaz and Mariam Sharif, has risen exponentially.
The sooner we recognize our failures and correct course, the better it will be for Pakistan.
The popularity of the mainstream PMLN that has been excluded from office in Islamabad and Lahore has risen in direct proportion to the failure of the PTI to “deliver”, no less than the plummeting credibility of certain state institutions to deliver “insaf” to Nawaz Sharif whether through the courts or through the NAB. Indeed, contradictions have arisen between the courts and NAB, with the former trying to protect its credibility by bending before the Bar while pointing an accusatory finger at NAB for discriminating between government and opposition. The recent conduct of the Supreme Court under CJP Asif Khosa to redress the imbalance, albeit belatedly, as evidenced in the latest developments in the Qazi Faez Isa case, should not be missed.
Much the same may be said of the Chief Election Commissioner, a retired high court judge, who has finally plucked up the courage to call a spade a spade. For obvious reasons, the CEC may not be keen to speed up the disqualification petitions against the “selected” prime minister, Imran Khan, but he has put his foot down on two important cases that have a direct bearing on political developments in Pakistan: he has refused to accept the PM’s two nominees on the ECP because these have not been sanctioned via due constitutional process; and he has allowed Mariam Nawaz Sharif to retain her Vice-Presidency of the PMLN.
Much the same sort of tremors are beginning to be felt in the media. The independent press, which had succumbed to junta pressure, is beginning to anticipate the prospect of breathing freely again. Proof of a halting revival comes from two opposite developments: a significant gang of “journalists” who had sold their souls to Imran Khan, or simply couldn’t resist the indiscreet charm of the Miltablishment, have suddenly taken a U-Turn and launched a barrage of criticism against the cult hero for whom they voted. Alarmed, the PTI government is trying to rush through emergency legislation to establish anti-media, speedy Tribunals, an effort that is likely to be fiercely resisted by the opposition in the Senate no less than by the media in the courts.
Cracks are also beginning to appear in the upper echelons of the Miltablishment. The loudest whisper is that not everyone is happy with the PM’s decision to extend the tenure of the army chief. And the more the political model fails to deliver, the more its chief architects and beneficiaries come under critical scrutiny. Indeed, the fact that the Miltablishment is facing a loss of credibility, trust and legitimacy in its bastion of Punjab whence its rank and file is largely recruited is cause for serious concern amongst its supporters. The fact that the chief minister of Punjab, a dubious selection, is the butt of both crude jokes and frustrated rage, is sufficient to reinforce the perception of unremitting, abject failure.
The continuing mismanagement of the economy and its ensuing hardships, in the backdrop of developing crises in relations with India, Saudi Arabia, Iran, America and Afghanistan, is giving sleepless nights to all and sundry.
Now Maulana Fazal ur Rahman has announced a million-man march on Islamabad. Nawaz Sharif is on board even if Asif Zardari is still hedging his bets. At the minimum, this will destabilize the government and set back its reform agenda. Maximally, it may spur a change of horses mid-stream to salvage the situation.
The most important factor in the dynamics of success and failure of any political strategy is popular perception of its strengths and weaknesses. Until recently, the Miltablishment was perceived to be ubiquitous, omnipotent and infallible; the combined opposition was imagined as weak, vacillating and divided; and the selected prime minister was lauded for his inspirational leadership qualities. But all that has, by turns, rapidly evaporated. The legitimacy of the political engineering has been corroded by the arrogance, incompetence, bias and unaccountability of its main practitioners in the organs of the state while the credibility and strength of the opposing forces, inspired by the courage and resilience of Nawaz and Mariam Sharif, has risen exponentially.
The sooner we recognize our failures and correct course, the better it will be for Pakistan.