The highly anticipated verdict in the Panama Leaks scandal will have been announced by now. As we went to press, the cause list gave the date of Thursday 20, 2017. It locks Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-N government and the Opposition’s Imran Khan of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in what has been a legal and political battle worthy of many a talk show. Yet, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan are not the only combatants in this in fight. The stakes are high for Asif Ali Zardari of the Pakistan Peoples Party too.
Whatever is revealed as the honourable court’s decision against a sitting prime minister in Islamabad will undoubtedly leave its mark on the political landscape. An earthquake is expected in the politics of Punjab but its aftershocks will be felt in Sindh too. For example, a judgment against Nawaz Sharif (if this is the case) will be perceived as going to prove to be negatively skewed in favour of the status quo in Sindh. It will send a strong message for the PPP which is presently at odds with the Establishment. And no party has perhaps suffered more at the hands of the Establishment than the PPP, as the argument goes, as its governments have been dismissed twice on more or less the same charges in the 1990s.
One major political actor, Altaf Hussain of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, already finds himself on the sidelines. What will happen if PM Nawaz Sharif also finds himself left out in the cold? Will this mean that Asif Zardari will be able to, as he recently declared, compete to shape the political architecture of the country?
What is happening in Islamabad has a bearing on Sindh and a recent chains of events in the southern province are worthy of connecting. First, of course, has been the census, which has the province’s two key parties, the PPP and MQM, worried as the new population numbers may reveal major rural-urban demographic changes that could affect voter patterns. Experts have been warning for a while now that internal migration and urbanization have changed Sindh. If the PTI is smart about it, it could take advantage of such patterns. In terms of representation in the provincial assembly, the PTI emerged as the second largest political force in the 2013 elections despite harassment and mass irregularities. It bagged more than 28 percent of the total vote after the MQM at 56 percent.
The PPP, which is in the driving seat for now, may also come under pressure with the verdict of the Panama Leaks case in the sense that influential electable personalities will not hesitate to abandon it and switch loyalties or forge anti-PPP electoral alliances, as they have done in the past. If this happens on a large enough scale, it could prevent the PPP from coming to power again in the next elections, scheduled for 2018. Take the example of Liaquat Jatoi, the former chief minister, who recently joined the PTI, and may be followed by others such as Arbab Ghulam Rahim, also a former CM.
While addressing a public rally in Larkana to observe the 38th death anniversary of party founder ZA Bhutto, Asif Ali Zardari hinted that without a majority in parliament he would be able to give the country a prime minister of his choice in the near future. But the comment landed him in hot water. After his public address in Ghari Khuda Bux, within a span of four days, three of his cronies and business partners have mysteriously gone ‘missing’. Ghulam Qadir Marri, a landlord from Tando Allahyar, who also looks after Zardari’s farmlands, was abducted when he was returning from the rally in Ghari Khuda Bux. According to a BBC Urdu report, he is presently a representative in the district council and in the past he was close to Baloch separatists. He used to visit Nawab Khair Bux Marri in Karachi. He also arranged a program in honour of Sher Muhammad Marri, known as General Sheroo, after his return from exile in Afghanistan. He is considered to play an important role in the case Aseefa Bhutto—Zardari’s second daughter—who was interested in contesting the elections from Tando Allahyar, where her vote was registered some years back.
Nawab Laghari, an aide of Zardari and a former Sindhi nationalist, allegedly involved in the Pakka Qila massacre in Hyderabad in September 30, 1988 (later charges were declared unfounded and he was exonerated) was also kidnapped. Laghari is a former special assistant to former chief minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah. He was also nominated in the Aalim Baloch murder case along with Asif Ali Zardari, when the federal secretary was killed in Hyderabad on September 18, 1997. Ashfaq Laghari, another Zardari associate, who oversees the Omni Group, was also reportedly abducted by unidentified men. The Omni Group is headed by Anwar Majeed. His offices were raided by the Rangers and they implicated him in cases on the day when Asif Zardari returned to the country in December last year. Information Adviser Maula Bux Chandio described Majeed’s arrest as persecution of political rivals.
But the most important one is the case of Uzair Jan Baloch of Lyari who was taken into military custody under the Pakistan Army Act and the Official Secrets Act of 1923. He faces charges of espionage or leaking sensitive information to foreign intelligence agencies. Thus, many aspects of this extremely complicated case with serious political ramifications must worry the upper echelons of the PPP. Information from him routinely appears in the media. His arrest in January 2016 caused panic among the party leadership. Nisar Khuhro, then a senior minister, said that Uzair had already been in custody. Either way, the PPP has been unable to defend itself against its involvement with Uzair Baloch. He has been photographed with Faryal Talpur, Syed Qaim Ali Shah, former MNA Abdul Qadir Patel, senator Yousaf Baloch.
For Zardari, the present situation invokes a sense of deja vu of his political past. The party has undergone many transformations. To many analysts, the jiyala culture of resistance has been replaced with one of a policy of reconciliation and coexistence.
If the Nawaz government weathers this storm, the PML-N will definitely gain but the PPP will still dominate provincial politics. In either case there Asif Ali Zardari has to play his cards carefully.
The writer is an independent researcher.
Whatever is revealed as the honourable court’s decision against a sitting prime minister in Islamabad will undoubtedly leave its mark on the political landscape. An earthquake is expected in the politics of Punjab but its aftershocks will be felt in Sindh too. For example, a judgment against Nawaz Sharif (if this is the case) will be perceived as going to prove to be negatively skewed in favour of the status quo in Sindh. It will send a strong message for the PPP which is presently at odds with the Establishment. And no party has perhaps suffered more at the hands of the Establishment than the PPP, as the argument goes, as its governments have been dismissed twice on more or less the same charges in the 1990s.
While addressing a public rally in Larkana to observe the 38th death anniversary of party founder ZA Bhutto, Asif Ali Zardari hinted that without a majority in parliament he would be able to give the country a prime minister of his choice in the near future. But the comment landed him in hot water
One major political actor, Altaf Hussain of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, already finds himself on the sidelines. What will happen if PM Nawaz Sharif also finds himself left out in the cold? Will this mean that Asif Zardari will be able to, as he recently declared, compete to shape the political architecture of the country?
What is happening in Islamabad has a bearing on Sindh and a recent chains of events in the southern province are worthy of connecting. First, of course, has been the census, which has the province’s two key parties, the PPP and MQM, worried as the new population numbers may reveal major rural-urban demographic changes that could affect voter patterns. Experts have been warning for a while now that internal migration and urbanization have changed Sindh. If the PTI is smart about it, it could take advantage of such patterns. In terms of representation in the provincial assembly, the PTI emerged as the second largest political force in the 2013 elections despite harassment and mass irregularities. It bagged more than 28 percent of the total vote after the MQM at 56 percent.
The PPP, which is in the driving seat for now, may also come under pressure with the verdict of the Panama Leaks case in the sense that influential electable personalities will not hesitate to abandon it and switch loyalties or forge anti-PPP electoral alliances, as they have done in the past. If this happens on a large enough scale, it could prevent the PPP from coming to power again in the next elections, scheduled for 2018. Take the example of Liaquat Jatoi, the former chief minister, who recently joined the PTI, and may be followed by others such as Arbab Ghulam Rahim, also a former CM.
While addressing a public rally in Larkana to observe the 38th death anniversary of party founder ZA Bhutto, Asif Ali Zardari hinted that without a majority in parliament he would be able to give the country a prime minister of his choice in the near future. But the comment landed him in hot water. After his public address in Ghari Khuda Bux, within a span of four days, three of his cronies and business partners have mysteriously gone ‘missing’. Ghulam Qadir Marri, a landlord from Tando Allahyar, who also looks after Zardari’s farmlands, was abducted when he was returning from the rally in Ghari Khuda Bux. According to a BBC Urdu report, he is presently a representative in the district council and in the past he was close to Baloch separatists. He used to visit Nawab Khair Bux Marri in Karachi. He also arranged a program in honour of Sher Muhammad Marri, known as General Sheroo, after his return from exile in Afghanistan. He is considered to play an important role in the case Aseefa Bhutto—Zardari’s second daughter—who was interested in contesting the elections from Tando Allahyar, where her vote was registered some years back.
Nawab Laghari, an aide of Zardari and a former Sindhi nationalist, allegedly involved in the Pakka Qila massacre in Hyderabad in September 30, 1988 (later charges were declared unfounded and he was exonerated) was also kidnapped. Laghari is a former special assistant to former chief minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah. He was also nominated in the Aalim Baloch murder case along with Asif Ali Zardari, when the federal secretary was killed in Hyderabad on September 18, 1997. Ashfaq Laghari, another Zardari associate, who oversees the Omni Group, was also reportedly abducted by unidentified men. The Omni Group is headed by Anwar Majeed. His offices were raided by the Rangers and they implicated him in cases on the day when Asif Zardari returned to the country in December last year. Information Adviser Maula Bux Chandio described Majeed’s arrest as persecution of political rivals.
But the most important one is the case of Uzair Jan Baloch of Lyari who was taken into military custody under the Pakistan Army Act and the Official Secrets Act of 1923. He faces charges of espionage or leaking sensitive information to foreign intelligence agencies. Thus, many aspects of this extremely complicated case with serious political ramifications must worry the upper echelons of the PPP. Information from him routinely appears in the media. His arrest in January 2016 caused panic among the party leadership. Nisar Khuhro, then a senior minister, said that Uzair had already been in custody. Either way, the PPP has been unable to defend itself against its involvement with Uzair Baloch. He has been photographed with Faryal Talpur, Syed Qaim Ali Shah, former MNA Abdul Qadir Patel, senator Yousaf Baloch.
For Zardari, the present situation invokes a sense of deja vu of his political past. The party has undergone many transformations. To many analysts, the jiyala culture of resistance has been replaced with one of a policy of reconciliation and coexistence.
If the Nawaz government weathers this storm, the PML-N will definitely gain but the PPP will still dominate provincial politics. In either case there Asif Ali Zardari has to play his cards carefully.
The writer is an independent researcher.