In Islamabad, the haze is clear. As the country enters into a phase that will define our politics for years to come, there is in the federal capital a clarity of purpose that is changing hues as it flows from one high office to the next. At the heart of this shape-shifting, ever-evolving, and often mutating phenomenon lies one central question:
When will elections be held?
The answer depends on who you ask. Or when you ask it. This makes it deceptively simple and also infuriatingly complex. It’s almost as if all the conflicts, contradictions and complications of the years past – both pre and post-May 9 – have converged onto this single question. Which is why perhaps all genuine stakeholders are very carefully weighing their thoughts, words and actions when confronted with the question.
The haze is obvious. Yet the clarity within the haze has now slowly begun to peek out. Red Zone insiders, who closely watch every move within the federal capital’s power circles, are whispering they have glimpsed some of this clarity. Among these insiders are those who have served in the recent two cabinets and remain plugged into the system even as the system struggles to reboot itself for the looming challenge.
These insiders reaffirm that when it comes to the timing of elections, there exist three possibilities. First, elections do, in fact, take place within the 90-day constitutional deadline; second, they are conducted sometime in February 2024 after the completion of the delimitation exercise; and third, they are postponed beyond February and happen, err… whenever they happen.
Three institutions, and their interplay, will decide which one of these three possibilities becomes a reality: The Supreme Court, the Election Commission, and the Establishment.
Here’s how the three possibilities can play out.
90 days: This possibility can kick in if the Supreme Court rejects the ECP’s position on the delimitation exercise and orders it to adhere to the constitutional time frame. A slew of petitions are already in front of the court challenging the ECP’s decision. The incumbent Chief Justice Umar Atta Bandial could choose to deliver a judgement before his retirement, which is due mid-September. If he were to do so, and in fact, order categorically that elections must be held within 90 days – which means before mid-November – that could send the system into a tailspin.
If he does so, the reaction of the other two stakeholders will be crucial.
Here’s where some fresh clarity has emerged. According to Red Zone insiders, the ECP has already war-gamed this scenario and come up with a decision that may surprise many. They say the ECP has decided that it will argue its case in favour of delimitations in front of the Supreme Court, but if the court declares that elections must be held within the 90-day deadline, then the ECP will ensure this is done.
Whoa! That’s a big call.
When asked to re-verify, one former cabinet minister said this was indeed the correct position. According to him, the chief election commissioner has said in internal meetings that the ECP will strictly follow SC orders. This would, however, mean that elections, were they to take place within the 90-day deadline, would be held on the basis of the 2017 census and not take into account the results of the latest digital census. Would the ECP be able to operationally meet the November deadline? Yes, said the former minister. He believes the CEC will make it happen regardless of the other complexities of the situation.
February option: This will kick in if the SC allows the ECP to proceed with the delimitation by declaring that the 90-day deadline can be extended due to the requirements of the exercise. The present chief justice could deliver such a judgement, or he could bide time, retire, and let the next CJ make a decision. If this permission were to be granted, knowledgeable insiders believe the elections will take place in the third week of February 2024. By this time, ECP would have completed its delimitation exercise and will conduct elections as per the re-drawn constituencies. Insiders say elections in the third week of February would mean the new national and provincial assemblies will become functional well before the March Senate elections, thereby completing the electoral college with no delays or complications.
Post-February option: Here’s where things get complicated. Postponing elections legally beyond six months would require the SC and ECP to violate the constitution. Red Zone insiders believe that convincing the court led by Justice Qazi Faez Isa and the election commission led by Sikandar Sultan Raja to agree to this option appears almost impossible in the given circumstances. Therefore this third option can only kick in as a result of some drastic action that could trigger various unintended consequences.
And yet, there’s more.
If elections are the finished product to emerge from the current political churn, the various raw ingredients that go into the making of this product are still being chopped and diced in the kitchen. Hasty legislations and unsigned bills, jail terms and bail cancellations, alliance makings and deal breakings, harsh measures and half measures, and of course, the trials and travails of caretaking in times of deep peril – all these ingredients are piling up as the political stove heats up.
The dots are yet to connect. It is still too early in the day. And the best-laid plans can go awry.
Which is why the emerging clarity within this haze could provide some guidance for the days that lie ahead. The former ruling coalition of the PDM has exited the arena in the hope of returning soon. But before that, it has to face up to its own demons. Those tired old faces in a nation of young ones - can they connect? Can they inspire? Do they care? When you are gifted a victory without having earned it, you run the risk of learning all the wrong lessons.
The PTI is ruined by the hubris of its leader. It stands no chance of resurrection in the short to medium term. The 90-day or 180-day election options mean nothing for a party that may already be out of the race. Hope can be a cruel thing. Especially when it is marinated in denial.
Such is the nature of power that it ebbs and flows through the travails of its wielders. With the famous five - Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif, Asif Zardari, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and Maulana Fazlur Rehman - out of the state structure for now, five other men will decide the direction of our politics through the power they wield: Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, Chief Justice Umar Atta Bandial, Justice Qazi Faez Isa, Chief Election Commissioner Sikandar Sultan Raja and Army chief Gen Asim Munir.
Most of them may agree on one very crucial point, but will they agree on how to achieve that? Therein lies the source of haze - and the rays of clarity beginning to sprout forth.