Nearly two weeks after the elections on 8 February, the PPP and PML-N have finally agreed on a power-sharing formula, with Asif Ali Zardari as the president and Shahbaz Sharif as the prime minister. Other constitutional positions – the Speaker of the National Assembly, Chairman of the Senate, and four governors – will be split between the two parties. This comes amidst a growing political crisis, owing to the PTI-independents trying to find a party to get their reserved seats and a unified identity in the National and provincial assemblies.
The ongoing political crisis was intensified by the dramatic statement by the Commissioner of Rawalpindi division, Liaqat Ali Chattha, who confessed to altering the election results and blamed the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and the Chief Election Commissioner for playing a role in this regard. He claimed to be under tremendous pressure, stating, “We convert the losers into winners with a 50,000-vote margin,” and surrendered himself to the police – reports The Nation. This adds another bucket of fuel to the fire ignited on 9 February – the day following the general elections – when the nation woke up to results contrary to what television channels had been showing the previous night.
Was the establishment's plan so poorly conceived? Were the PML-N so overconfident that they neglected to mobilize their voters? Did the narrative that the PTI only thrives on social media backfire on them? Whatever the case, people turned out to vote in great numbers.
Despite whatever happened during that night, the PML-N, previously confident in its ability to form governments in Islamabad and Punjab, found itself bewildered with 75 seats. They are now striving to forge a government in alliance with the PPP, who hold 54 seats, and the MQM-P, with 17 seats in the national assembly. Their longstanding ally, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, surprisingly leaned towards his long-time rival, Imran Khan's PTI in KP – a reversal from his previous stance of labelling Khan as a "yahoodi agent" until shortly before the elections. He then proceeded to disclose, to the nation's surprise, that former Army chief General Bajwa and former DG ISI General Faiz Hameed orchestrated the no-confidence move against Imran Khan's government in 2022. However, he retracted his claim partially within 24 hours – eventually denying General Faiz's involvement altogether.
“What’s done cannot be undone” – lamented Lady Macbeth.
Was the establishment's plan so poorly conceived? Were the PML-N so overconfident that they neglected to mobilize their voters? Did the narrative that the PTI only thrives on social media backfire on them? Whatever the case, people turned out to vote in great numbers. Before they knew it, the election was over – with ballots awaiting discovery in the boxes. When the votes were counted, the situation was evidently ‘managed’ hastily and clumsily in a state of panic.
Consequently, here we find ourselves. Both national and international media are awash with reports of election theft – "mandate thieves," as Al Jazeera termed it.
Maulana’s surprise move created another layer of crisis in the process of government formation, while rumours suggest Mian Sahib feels abashed, perhaps betrayed by the establishment, as the fate of his elected seat from Lahore still remains uncertain.
Earlier reports indicated that the PML-N inner circles were opposing the plans of taking the government in Islamabad – evidently, the 24th IMF program is waiting with its mouth open, with its fangs on full display. So, Mian Shahbaz Sharif, the nominated candidate for the premiership was reluctant to grab the coveted seat. However, there is no escape.
In my talk show on YouTube, Dr. Hasnain Javed claimed that the establishment will not let Shahbaz Sharif back off – the Model Town case files are not buried too deep, so he will have to comply and obey. He will have to deal with the IMF – ostensibly as advised by the establishment. Not just this, he will also make the annual budget in June – then perhaps he is free to go where he likes.
Within this period, a reconciliation between the establishment and the PTI is likely to be underway – with Imran Khan reemerging onto the scene before or after the budget in June. This prospect appears probable, as there seems to be no other way to counter the political crisis sparked by the unexpected voter turnout in the country.
And what about Maryam Nawaz, poised to be referred to as the first female Chief Minister of Punjab? How will she fare, with only a slim majority in the provincial assembly – a majority likely to fall short of the required numbers at any time in the next few weeks, should the Election Commission swiftly decide on the pending rigging cases? It does not bode well for her as well. So, why pursue it at all? Perhaps there is simply no escape for her either.
Within this period, a reconciliation between the establishment and the PTI is likely to be underway – with Imran Khan reemerging onto the scene before or after the budget in June. This prospect appears probable, as there seems to be no other way to counter the political crisis sparked by the unexpected voter turnout in the country. Political analysts across the board are foreseeing an early election, a sentiment affirmed by the strategic positioning of Pakistan's political maestro, Asif Ali Zardari. The constitutional positions he was demanding for his party reflect his foresight – Chairman of the Senate, Speaker of the National Assembly, Governors in four provinces. These positions remain in place even if the assembly is dissolved or the government is ousted. He probably foresaw a short life for this government from the outset.
So, let's imagine that whatever we are contemplating at this juncture comes to fruition. The early elections are called by the end of this year or early next year. The PTI emerges victorious with an overwhelming majority and forms the government in alignment with the wishes of the people of this country. Excellent! But is that all the people desire – merely to see Imran Khan in the Prime Minister's residence? No. They yearn for affordable electricity, gas, and food prices. They crave employment opportunities and prosperity.
Where Pakistan’s economy stands today and where it is projected to be after a year – no Imran Khan can rectify it overnight. And with the calibre of ministers, he has at his disposal – never! They may be very good people at heart, their intentions may be super clean, but they are useless, and they have proved it so in their previous term. Therefore, with the PTI back in power, it won't be long before the same voters find themselves bewildered, akin to the characters in George Orwell’s Animal Farm, pondering over the altered inscriptions on the wall – “All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others”. At this point, my vision is blurred; I can’t see any further.
Only God knows what will happen then.