The results of the July 17 by-elections in Punjab on 20 seats were not unexpected and certainly not unpredicted -- rather they were exactly as forecasted by political pundits weeks ago.
The reasons for the decisive defeat of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in Punjab which claimed it to be its stronghold are quite obvious. But what’s less obvious is why the PML-N leadership ‘seemingly’ remained oblivious to all the red flags till the last day.
The important by-elections held on July 17 was a formidable appraisal by the voters of the political parties, after the no-confidence motion against former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the consequent regime change and its ensuing events. One of the things demonstrated by the result was that people definitely disapproved of the way the regime change was managed in cohorts with the establishment.
Without even taking into consideration how Imran Khan and his PTI succeeded in motivating its voters, we need to see the curved political trajectory of the PML-N in decisions it took that precipitated in the decisive by-elections result in Punjab.
By-elections usually have little or no consequences for the sitting governments but these by-elections were particularly important as the fate of the incumbent Punjab government rested on its outcome. A strong win could give the government a fresh mandate for the remaining term in office.
The fact that the PML-N leadership failed to attract the voters, and there was a poor voter turnout in Lahore, shows that they have clearly lost the peoples’ confidence.
Before the tabling of the no-confidence motion, Asif Ali Zardari publicly declared that Shehbaz Sharif would be the coalition prime minister of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government. Although it was a long awaited dream of Shehbaz Sharif coming true, yet he and his party knew that he would also have to bear the brunt of all the decisions that the coalition government would take and face the public wrath -- because of the unpopular decisions. The PML-N agreed to take the risk anyway.
Even before the vote of no-confidence, the PML-N had started to lose the political ground they had gained since the ouster of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. It gradually became defensive, went back on the narrative of civil supremacy and the sanctity of vote as the later events proved.
As events and statements of federal ministers of Imran Khan’s cabinet, and he himself revealed in the media, the deal to send Mian Nawaz Sharif was brokered by the army with the government. Khan was convinced and misled into believing that Sharif was in a critical condition and mortal danger, and in need of emergency surgery which led to his decision to allow him to go to London. As it turned out, Sharif walked to the air ambulance, smartly clad in a suit and red muffler; neither was he admitted to any hospital nor did he undergo any surgery. He got some medical tests done and continued with his routine medicines.
The fact is that from that point on several similar moves made by the PML-N leadership, eroded their stance vis-a-vis civilian supremacy. The PML-N lost massive ground when again its supremo Nawaz Sharif decided that his party would vote in favour of the parliamentary bill on the extension of service term of the Chief of Army Staff. The party workers as well as many party leaders who presumed that the PML-N was posturing as anti-establishment were disappointed.
When in late 2021 Asif Ali Zardari became active again to bring the opposition parties together into an alliance to topple Imran Khan’s government, it was an open secret that this move would only be possible with the establishment’s support and their influence on smaller parties in the coalition. How things unfolded in the first quarter of 2022 is a fresh memory but it was almost tragicomic how the heads of smaller parties publicly declared that they were controlled on phone calls by the intelligence agencies, yet they had become apolitical as DGISPR declared.
How and why did the establishment get to a point where they seemed fedup with one setup they had constructed from scratch and how they went on to form a new setup of the same party they themselves had ousted just three years ago is now public knowledge. Why the PML-N took this bait, hook and stinker is still anybody’s guess.
The narrative formed was that the country was about to default, go bankrupt and obliterate if Imran Khan was allowed to remain in power anymore. The deal was to play the same smaller parties, detach them from the PTI and reattach with the PDM -- and viola! We would have a brand new government. Seemed deceptively simple, only, the way things turned out, the country and the constitution barely survived the dangerous switch.
The claim was that the new saviours to the existential crisis in Pakistan were financial wizards and they had the superpowers to lift the country out of the quagmire that Imran Khan and his government had gotten sucked into. Certainly impressive as who wouldn’t want to be saved, but alas, the new government on resuming office, fluttered for a few days helplessly like a weak hatchling and then fell flat on its face. I guess the salvation had to be shelved for another day.
The dollar went into a freefall, the inflation went through the roof, the petrol prices skyrocketed, the electricity bills became like small rockets causing devastation wherever they landed, the allies suddenly went into hibernation and the PML-N was left gasping for air as they were inundated with criticism from all and sundry. They had no controls, no plans, no strategy to stop the spiral and no leadership to face the people or explain why they had taken this deal when they clearly were clueless about the crisis resolution.
The game that they played in Punjab was even riskier. The PML-N had been criticizing the PTI and Imran Khan all throughout the three years of taking turncoats in his party and yet this time, for the vote of no-confidence, they made the deal with the same turncoats. They agreed to award them the PML-N party tickets.
The glaring hypocrisy in all of this was not lost on the voters of PML-N. This was something which even the diehard PML-N supporter could not justify. Perhaps, if the PML-N had been successful in controlling the economic situation, the whole episode of no-confidence and its aftermath might have been justified to some extent. But, as it stands, the situation is worse than before for the common man.
The PML-N had its chance to come all out as an ideological party and stick to its stand of sanctity of vote and civil supremacy. Yet when it was offered another deal, they picked the path of least resistance. Bailed out the establishment, agreed to absolve any or all army generals of the fiasco of 2018 elections, keep silent on the architects of project “Imran” and be good boys.
They betrayed their voters and supporters, and got an apt reply in the by-elections. The message for PML-N is written on the wall. In the words of Earnest Hemmingway, “Ask not for whom the bell tolls: it tolls for thee”.
The reasons for the decisive defeat of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in Punjab which claimed it to be its stronghold are quite obvious. But what’s less obvious is why the PML-N leadership ‘seemingly’ remained oblivious to all the red flags till the last day.
The important by-elections held on July 17 was a formidable appraisal by the voters of the political parties, after the no-confidence motion against former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the consequent regime change and its ensuing events. One of the things demonstrated by the result was that people definitely disapproved of the way the regime change was managed in cohorts with the establishment.
Without even taking into consideration how Imran Khan and his PTI succeeded in motivating its voters, we need to see the curved political trajectory of the PML-N in decisions it took that precipitated in the decisive by-elections result in Punjab.
By-elections usually have little or no consequences for the sitting governments but these by-elections were particularly important as the fate of the incumbent Punjab government rested on its outcome. A strong win could give the government a fresh mandate for the remaining term in office.
The fact that the PML-N leadership failed to attract the voters, and there was a poor voter turnout in Lahore, shows that they have clearly lost the peoples’ confidence.
Before the tabling of the no-confidence motion, Asif Ali Zardari publicly declared that Shehbaz Sharif would be the coalition prime minister of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government. Although it was a long awaited dream of Shehbaz Sharif coming true, yet he and his party knew that he would also have to bear the brunt of all the decisions that the coalition government would take and face the public wrath -- because of the unpopular decisions. The PML-N agreed to take the risk anyway.
Even before the vote of no-confidence, the PML-N had started to lose the political ground they had gained since the ouster of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. It gradually became defensive, went back on the narrative of civil supremacy and the sanctity of vote as the later events proved.
Even before the vote of no-confidence, the PML-N had started to lose the political ground they had gained since the ouster of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. It gradually became defensive, went back on the narrative of civil supremacy and the sanctity of vote as the later events proved.
As events and statements of federal ministers of Imran Khan’s cabinet, and he himself revealed in the media, the deal to send Mian Nawaz Sharif was brokered by the army with the government. Khan was convinced and misled into believing that Sharif was in a critical condition and mortal danger, and in need of emergency surgery which led to his decision to allow him to go to London. As it turned out, Sharif walked to the air ambulance, smartly clad in a suit and red muffler; neither was he admitted to any hospital nor did he undergo any surgery. He got some medical tests done and continued with his routine medicines.
The fact is that from that point on several similar moves made by the PML-N leadership, eroded their stance vis-a-vis civilian supremacy. The PML-N lost massive ground when again its supremo Nawaz Sharif decided that his party would vote in favour of the parliamentary bill on the extension of service term of the Chief of Army Staff. The party workers as well as many party leaders who presumed that the PML-N was posturing as anti-establishment were disappointed.
When in late 2021 Asif Ali Zardari became active again to bring the opposition parties together into an alliance to topple Imran Khan’s government, it was an open secret that this move would only be possible with the establishment’s support and their influence on smaller parties in the coalition. How things unfolded in the first quarter of 2022 is a fresh memory but it was almost tragicomic how the heads of smaller parties publicly declared that they were controlled on phone calls by the intelligence agencies, yet they had become apolitical as DGISPR declared.
How and why did the establishment get to a point where they seemed fedup with one setup they had constructed from scratch and how they went on to form a new setup of the same party they themselves had ousted just three years ago is now public knowledge. Why the PML-N took this bait, hook and stinker is still anybody’s guess.
The narrative formed was that the country was about to default, go bankrupt and obliterate if Imran Khan was allowed to remain in power anymore. The deal was to play the same smaller parties, detach them from the PTI and reattach with the PDM -- and viola! We would have a brand new government. Seemed deceptively simple, only, the way things turned out, the country and the constitution barely survived the dangerous switch.
The claim was that the new saviours to the existential crisis in Pakistan were financial wizards and they had the superpowers to lift the country out of the quagmire that Imran Khan and his government had gotten sucked into. Certainly impressive as who wouldn’t want to be saved, but alas, the new government on resuming office, fluttered for a few days helplessly like a weak hatchling and then fell flat on its face. I guess the salvation had to be shelved for another day.
They betrayed their voters and supporters, and got an apt reply in the by-elections. The message for PML-N is written on the wall. In the words of Earnest Hemmingway, “Ask not for whom the bell tolls: it tolls for thee”.
The dollar went into a freefall, the inflation went through the roof, the petrol prices skyrocketed, the electricity bills became like small rockets causing devastation wherever they landed, the allies suddenly went into hibernation and the PML-N was left gasping for air as they were inundated with criticism from all and sundry. They had no controls, no plans, no strategy to stop the spiral and no leadership to face the people or explain why they had taken this deal when they clearly were clueless about the crisis resolution.
The game that they played in Punjab was even riskier. The PML-N had been criticizing the PTI and Imran Khan all throughout the three years of taking turncoats in his party and yet this time, for the vote of no-confidence, they made the deal with the same turncoats. They agreed to award them the PML-N party tickets.
The glaring hypocrisy in all of this was not lost on the voters of PML-N. This was something which even the diehard PML-N supporter could not justify. Perhaps, if the PML-N had been successful in controlling the economic situation, the whole episode of no-confidence and its aftermath might have been justified to some extent. But, as it stands, the situation is worse than before for the common man.
The PML-N had its chance to come all out as an ideological party and stick to its stand of sanctity of vote and civil supremacy. Yet when it was offered another deal, they picked the path of least resistance. Bailed out the establishment, agreed to absolve any or all army generals of the fiasco of 2018 elections, keep silent on the architects of project “Imran” and be good boys.
They betrayed their voters and supporters, and got an apt reply in the by-elections. The message for PML-N is written on the wall. In the words of Earnest Hemmingway, “Ask not for whom the bell tolls: it tolls for thee”.